Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
344 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
a frontal boundary will remain stalled near the Carolina coast
through Friday as high pressure persists over the northeast states.
A series of weak low pressure systems will track east along the
frontal boundary...before a weak cold front crosses the area
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
latest surface analysis reveals ~1024 mb hi pressure over New England
with a SW-NE oriented stalled frntal boundary near/off the NC CST.
Aloft...a weak middle-level cutoff low continues to spin over the eastern
Continental U.S.. overrunning precipitation is expected to continue this eveng into
tonight due to these features...in the form of mainly light to
moderate rain...with some thunder possible over far southeast areas where
elevated instability will be greatest. It will not rain the entire
night but probability of precipitation are in the 60-80% range for all areas. No flooding
issues expeceted with quantitative precipitation forecast less than 1/2 inch anticipated.
Otws...expect a cloudy night with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/...
similar pattern into Thursday with the middle-level cutoff sliding east
towards the middle-Atlantic and associated shortwaves interacting with a
very moist airmass to make showers again likely. Tough to
pinpoint the exact timing of precipitation...but expect another day of
onshore flow and a cloudy sky with continued cooler conds...highs
only in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
There will then be a trend towards lower chances of precipitation each day
all the way to Sat as the middle-level low pulls offshore. The atmosphere
will remain quite moist however and with some shortwave energy
aloft there will still be a chance of rain showers both days. A weak cold
front also crosses the area on Sat. As for temperatures...expect highs in
the middle to upper 70s Friday and and lower 80s Sat. Lows both days will
run through the 60s.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
cold front from the north pushes S through the area Sat night...W/ surface hi pressure
building from eastern lakes to new eng through sun. Will have lowered probability of precipitation from
the north through sun...then west/ return flow from the southeast-SW as surface hi pressure
retreates well east-northeast of the region...will have another period of mainly diurnal
probability of precipitation Monday. Antoher cold front to approach from the northwest Tuesday...W/ rain showers/thunderstorms
possible west/ its passage lt Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will be nearly seasonable
sun...then average a few degrees f above normal Mon-Wed.
Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
persistent NE wind today with periodic light rain/drizzle. Ceilings
generally remain IFR/LIFR all terminals while visibilities are somewhat more
variable. Did include a few hours Worth of ceilings lifting above 1000
feet at kecg...maintained IFR/LIFR conditions elsewhere through
Outlook...onshore flow continues through Thursday although some
modest improvement is expected at least for southeast Virginia/NE NC as the
surface trough lifts a bit farther to the N/W. Overall would expect
conditions to become MVFR or perhaps even VFR at korf/kphf/kecg
after 15z/Thu...while IFR ceilings may linger at kric/ksby. A more
significant improvement is likely Friday and through the weekend.
The chance for mainly afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms
continues but flight conditions should generally be VFR or MVFR.
onshore winds continue over the waters west/ speeds at or above Small Craft Advisory (nr 20 knots Bay...to
25 knots on most of the ocn from mouth of Bay n). Waves on Bay avgg 3-4
feet...seas to 7-8 feet far northern ocn waters...and now approaching 5 feet down
off NE NC. Extended scas into/through tonight on much of Bay/portions
of ocn...to early afternoon Thursday on far northern ocn waters. Conds expected to slowly
subside/diminish into Thursday as surface hi to the north-northeast gradually weakens.
Trough of low pressure surface-aloft will be slo to exit CST into
Sat...keeping mainly north-northeast winds and slightly elevated wave/seas (though
keeping conds below sca). Cold front from the north to settle across the waters Sat
night...W/ hi pressure building from eastern lakes into new eng. Another period of
elevated winds/wave-seas expected sun...though have kept forecast just below
Small Craft Advisory for now.
Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz632-
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Thursday for anz630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for anz650-652.