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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
304 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure moves across the region tonight...then drifts off the
coast Saturday. A dry cold front crosses the area Saturday night.
High pressure builds back into and over the area through the middle
of next week.

&&

Near term /tonight/...
surface high moves over the area tonight while models track a quick moving
short wave southeast across the Carolinas after midnight...exiting off the southeastern
coast Sat morning. High level moisture will continue to drift across
the forecast area through the night. Lows mainly in the 40s xcpt u30s western most
areas to near 50 southeastern beaches.

&&

Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
surface high prs shifts offshore Sat with models suggesting a Lee trough
dvlpng out ahead of the apprchg cdfrnt. Tsctns show a dry column
along with a west-northwest downsloping flow. Upshot will be anthr dry day
with only scattered clouds at best. Highs within a few degrees of 70.

Dry cold frontal passage Sat night. Skies average pt cloudy. Lows m40s-l50s.

High pressure systms builds back into the area Sunday and Monday.
Expct ampl sunshine both days. Downslope wind will help to boost
highs between 70-75 both days. Lows Sun night mainly in the 40s xcpt
u30s western most areas to l50s southeastern beach areas.

&&

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
mild/warm to start in extended then trending cooler by the end. Hi
pressure surface-aloft remains in vicinity of southeast and mdatlc csts Monday night through Tuesday
before shifting east allowing broad trough (aloft) to settle from the
Great Lakes to the eastern states. Cold front will approach from the west-northwest
Wednesday...then push across the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. West/ the fnt...expecting
periods of cloudiness and (right now) a low chance pop (for shras). Ahead of the
fnt...mild/warm southwesterly flow and skc-pcldy...then vrb clouds from lt Wednesday
into Friday as air turns cooler (on return of north-northwest wnds).

Hi temperatures Tuesday ranging through the 70s (maybe l80s over interior
sections)...then l/m70s Wednesday...and mainly in the 60s Thu/Fri. Low temperatures
in the 50s in the l/m50s Monday night...M/u50s Tuesday night...l/m50s Wednesday
night...then m40s to l50s Thursday night.

&&

Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
VFR conds will persist through the 18z taf period. High pressure
noses into the area creating light winds and dry conditions. A weak
upper wave will pass over the area Sat...bringing only some high clouds
to the mid-Atlantic.

Outlook: a dry cold front makes its way across the eastern US by
Sunday morning. VFR conds continue to persist Sat through early next
week as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

Marine...
will allow scas to expire at 20z/24 for all but far northern ocn zone
(due to seas hovering around 5 ft). Northwest winds continue into Sat west/ speeds
lowering (gradually). Next possible period of Small Craft Advisory lt Sat night into Sun night west/
cold frontal passage and low level cold air advection (in its wake) as west winds become northwest.
Speeds lowering again on Monday...then become SW Monday night continuing through Wednesday
(while remaining below Small Craft Advisory thresholds).

&&

Fire weather...
concern Sunday afternoon will be for breezy/windy and dry conditions
across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore areas. Mixed layer deep temperatures prognosticated
into the l-m30s by 18z Sunday resulting in relative humidity values around 30% along
with gusty northwest winds between 15-25 miles per hour. Thus...an enhanced Fire Danger
Statement may be needed if the 10 hour fuel moistures drop below 10%.

&&

Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
anz630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz650.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mpr
near term...mpr
short term...mpr
long term...alb
aviation...dap
marine...alb
fire weather...mpr

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