Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
1116 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will continue
to build into the middle Atlantic this weekend...resulting in dry and
cool conditions. A warming trend will begin Memorial Day and last
through next week as the high becomes situated off the East
Coast.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
latest surface analysis depicts surface low pressure deepening off the
coast of southern Maine...as the upper level cutoff low spins over
southern New England/southeast New York state. Fairly impressive mesoscale convective system situated
over the middle MS valley...but for the local area this will do
little more than continue to spread some high clouds into the County Warning Area
through the afternoon hours (as well as the strong northwest flow leading to some wave
clouds in the the Lee of the mtns). Quite cool for Memorial Day weekend
with 11 am observation generally between 55 and 60 degrees even under full
sun. Made little change to the forecast for today...breezy northwest flow
with gusts to 25-35 miles per hour (highest ne). Skies average out partly to
mostly sunny with highs mainly 65-70...about 10 degrees below average.
Added a climate section below as we may be close to record lows
in a few spots Sun morning (also set a record low this morning at
ecg).
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
upper pattern during the short term will be characterized by a
trough in both the west and east with ridging over the ctrl
Continental U.S.. upper closed low will be slo to track east-northeast through southern/eastern
new eng tonight through sun. Deep layered northwesterly flow will result in
dry/cool conds through Sun night. Temperatures will fall into the
40s inland/l50s right at the CST tonight. Hi temperatures sun from the u60s to
m70s. Low temperatures Sun night from the 40s to l50s.
Meanwhile...stalled frontal boundary over the Gulf states will
begin to lift northward late sun and Monday while at the same time...upper
level ridge will finally progress eastward. As a result...a warming
trend will commence Monday. As the ridge progresses eastward...a
warm/moist airmass will interact with the boundary to produce
showers and thunderstorms over the Midwest into the Ohio Valley
Monday afternoon. Activity then expected to form into a mesoscale
convective system. Mesoscale convective system will round the ridge...but will die out
before reaching the mdatlc. Boundary will continue to lift northward
Monday night.
&&
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
have again gone close to a European model (ecmwf)/hpc(wpc) blend for the midweek time
frame. Have allowed for some rain showers/isolated T later Tuesday as warm front
lifts north across the area, with best chances across areas north of
fvx/ric/wal line.
The front shunts north of the area for the middle to latter part of the
week. Meanwhile, middle-upper level ridging rebuilds across the eastern
half of the Continental U.S. As surface high slides off the middle-Atlantic coast.
Resultant Bermuda high/Summer-like setup will allow for increasing
temperatures (and humidity values) for the middle to latter part of next
week. Rainfall opportunities during this period will primarily be
diurnally driven, with little more than partly cloudy and
increasingly muggy conditions by night.
&&
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
impressive upper trough for this time of year currently crossing
area...and will gradually lift away from the region this weekend.
High pressure builds into the area from the northwest. This will provide
for a prolonged period of VFR with generally sky clear. At 06z...still
broken/overcast Alto cumulus across the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia...which should clear in the
next 2-4 hours. Biggest issue next 24 hours is wind. Most
terminals should see gusts in the 25-30 knots range during the day
today...then diminish after 00z sun. Winds should be considerably
less on Sunday...although some gusts in the 15 to 20 knots range will
still be possible.
Next chance for ceiling/visibility restrictions will be later Monday-Tuesday as a
warm front begins to affect the area...with increasing moisture.
&&
Marine...
deepening storm just east of southern New England will continue lifting
northeastward this weekend. Winds around this system will remain in the strong
Small Craft Advisory range today...with gusts on the Bay/northern coastal waters around 30
kts through at least this morning. Winds will slowly decrease
tonight/early Sunday morning...as low moves away and high pressure
builds into the region. Sunday will be better than today from a
boating perspective...with winds generally at or below 15 knots on the
Bay/rivers/sound...and 20 knots on the ocean. However...northwest direction
should still keep conditions on the chopphy side...making conditions
less than optimal. Monday appears to be the best day of the Holiday
weekend...with winds mainly 10kt or less.
High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast from Tuesday through the
end of the week...allowing for a prolonged period of S/SW winds
throughout the marine area. During most of this time frame...winds
on the Bay/rivers/sound will be in the 10 to 15 knots range...and 10 to
20 knots on the ocean.
&&
Climate...
set a record low at Elizabeth City NC this morning at 43 f (old
record had been 47). May come close to challenging a few record
lows again Sunday...record lows for may 26th are listed below:
Richmond............42 (1925)
Norfolk.............47 (1967)
Salisbury Maryland........39 (1917)
Elizabeth City NC...44 (1967)
&&
Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz633-
635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz630>632-634-
650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz654-656-
658.
&&
$$
Synopsis...lkb
near term...alb/lkb
short term...alb/Sam
long term...mam
aviation...worse
marine...worse
climate...akq
