Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
247 am akdt Friday Aug 29 2014
models continue with good run to run continuity as well as
model to model details on position and strength of features well
through the short term and middle term. Significant differences in
how the cold upper level low over the Arctic Ocean is handled by
the middle of next week.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...a 512 dam low currently near 77 north and 170
west will continue to spin short waves south and east over
northern Alaska as the low moves to the south. The low will be
located near 75 north and 170 west Friday morning and 74 north and
165 west as a 514 dam low or about 250 nm northwest of Point
Barrow Saturday morning. The upper level low wobbles around near
this location spinning shortwaves over northern Alaska through the
middle of next week. As the low wobbles around north of the state
expect unseasonable cool conditions along with a progression of
shortwaves moving quickly through the interior. Cold and
unsettled weather on tap for northern Alaska well into next week.
A strong cold front currently along a parc to pabt to pamc line
continues to move to the east...however the northern portion of
the front is moving east much quicker than the southern portions
which will cause the tail end of the front to hang up near the
Alaska Range today.
Arctic coast...the front continues to move to the east having
moved past pasc and paad and will pass Demarcation Point later
this morning. Snow noted on web cams and in observation over much of
inland areas this evening and along the coast east of Barrow.
A couple inches of snow is expected on the plains especially
inland while a storm total of 4 to 6 inches is expected in the
northern Brooks range.
West Coast and western interior...showers will diminish this
morning on the West Coast and through the day in the western
interior. Skies will scatter out in the western interior today
and this evening and combined with a cold airmass will cause wide
spread frost over much of the western interior. Clouds will
increase along the West Coast this evening ahead of the next
Interior...showers continue this morning ahead of the front and
will diminish by this afternoon as the front passes. Frost
advisory for Fairbanks area tonight as the cold airmass moves into
the area behind the front and skies scatter out late this evening.
Snow levels will fall rapidly over the Alaska Range tonight with
minor snow accumulations possible above 2500 feet tonight as
moisture lingers and cold airmass moves into the area.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...northwest winds and waves will
persist along the western North Slope however no significant
activity is expected.
frost advisory for akz222.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220-pkz245.
Ccc Aug 14