Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
333 am akdt sun Mar 9 2014
Models...initialize well. All models agree on the change in
pattern as ridge builds in over eastern interior and trough digs
down over the West Coast through middle week. Good agreement on a
series of shortwaves moving up the face of the ridge beginning
Monday evening...followed by another on Wednesday afternoon.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...long wave trough digging back over the
central interior from low over the Canadian archipelago. Closed
500 dam low develops over Beaver this morning then moves northwest
over Anaktuvuk Pass this evening...and over the Chukchi Sea Monday
evening. Ridge pushes north as low pulls out with ridge axis lying
east to west over the Alaska Range by Monday afternoon...and over
the eastern Brooks range by Tuesday morning. The first major short
wave will move over the Gulf of Alaska coast by Monday evening and
over the northern interior by Tuesday morning. At 850 hpa...models
are still pretty consistent with pulling the 20 below celsius
isotherm south to lie from Point Hope to McGrath and then east
along the Alaska Range today...then from Nome to Eagle Monday
morning. The isotherm then pushes north in the east as the ridge
builds in and gets pulled south over the West Coast as the low
aloft drops south.
Surface...cyclonic flow continues over the state...but that will
be changing as the week GOES on. 980mb low near Yakutat this
morning will pinball west to Cook Inlet this afternoon before
dissipating. A 964mb low near 47n 169w this morning will move to
300nm south of Sand Point by Monday morning...then to Kodiak
Island by Tuesday morning...continuing north to be over Cook
Inlet Wednesday morning. Weak Chinook flow will develop through
the Alaska Range Monday night. Weather front will move to the
Alaska Range Monday night and to the Brooks range by Tuesday
morning. Eastern interior looks to remain mostly dry with the
Chinook flow...but expect snow out west and over the northern
interior...but not much more than an inch anywhere at this time.
Arctic coast...mostly clear this morning...but more stratus just
offshore can be seen on the modis 11 um bt at 09/0801z moving
southwest. Expect the stratus and flurries to move over the coast
later this morning and persist through the night from Wainwright
east. Winds generally light with direction dependent on the
location of the bubble high over the Arctic plain.
West Coast and western interior...mostly clear conditions will
continue today except on the Bering Strait coast and St Lawrence
Island. Strong winds near the Bering Strait will let up a little
today. Temperatures will continue to be mild today but cooler
temperatures on the way along the coast as the week GOES on.
Increasing clouds by Monday afternoon with snow spreading to the
inland areas Monday night as front moves into the area.
Interior...continued mostly clear through Monday. The exception
will be the far southeast interior which will see clouds and some
flurries today that are being flung north by the low near
Yakutat. Locally gusty winds around the interior this morning
will taper down as the day GOES on with generally light winds
tonight. Weak Chinook flow developing through the Alaska Range
Monday afternoon and evening. Expect gusty winds Monday night in
the Alaska Range. As the front moves over Fairbanks some light
snow will be possible but expect that most snow will be west and
north of Fairbanks. Snow amounts will be mainly less than one
Wind Chill Advisory for akz207.
Gale Warning for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz220.
Sdb Mar 14