Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
259 am akst Sat Dec 7 2013
Models...pretty similar through 48 hours...significant differences
show up after that in the handling of a shortwave moving out of
the Arctic across the northeast coast and troughing developing
aloft over the southwest interior.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...516 dam closed low over eastern Siberia will
move northeast across the Arctic at about 75n. 573 closed high
over the northern Gulf of Alaska recede south to over 56n 143w.
The ridge will flatten out with a more zonal flow developing
across the northern half of the Mainland. A closed high will
develop over the chukchi peninsula Monday then weaken in place and
slide north. The models have differing solutions after that. At
850 hpa...still plenty of warm air with the zero celsius line
pushing all the way to the Arctic coast. We will finally see some
cold air pushing in over the northwest coast tonight and into the
eastern interior by late Sunday when the zero celsius line will
extend from over Gambell to over Whitehorse yt. Models still keep
US well above normal at 850 hpa through the week.
Surface...ridge remains firmly in place over Mainland Alaska. As
ridge recedes south a weak low pressure pattern will develop over
the interior and West Coast. Trough of low pressure will push
across the Arctic coast today. Warm air continues to flow north up
the coast...but that will shut off later today as cold air pushes
to the south.
Arctic coast...some patches of freezing rain will continue to
meander around the Arctic slope. A shortwave moving out of the
chukotsk peninsula will jet along the Arctic coast today and
tonight. Winds will increase as it moves through the area.
Potential for some blowing snow along the coast...but it will be
lessened by the warm air over the area. Winds on the eastern
Arctic coast will increase to gale force tonight as the wave moves
through the area. Potential for blizzard conditions around Barter
Island for a few hours overnight.
West Coast and western interior...continued will above normal
temperatures today with cooling tonight into Sunday. Expect some
light rain over the Seward Peninsula to change to snow tonight as
the cold air pushes south. Winds generally light.
Interior...precipitation has pretty much ended in Fairbanks and
areas south. Still some freezing rain moving over the top of the
ridge across the northern zones. Temperatures 20 to 30 degrees
above normal today and slightly cooler tomorrow with a continued
cooling trend into middle week. Winds generally light. Northern part
of the ridge will remain pretty dirty so expect cloudy to mostly
cloudy conditions. Some patchy fog across the interior tomorrow
morning in areas that do manage to see the clouds scatter out.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Winter Storm Warning for akz204-akz206-akz208-akz217-akz218-
Winter Weather Advisory for akz201-akz202-akz203-akz205.
Gale Warning for pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Sdb Dec 13