Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
341 PM akdt sun Aug 2 2015
models in decent agreement through about 60 hours. Moderately
strong upper level low 500 nm north of Demarcation Point with
surface cold front trailing behind to move precipitation onshore
of the Arctic coast this evening and continuing through Monday.
The heaviest precipitation will skim the Arctic coast before the
lagging rear portion of the cold front on the western area sags
south and spreads the precipitation over the Arctic coast and to
the eastern Brooks range by Monday morning and afternoon.
The high will build south over the Chukchi Sea Monday night and
Tuesday. This will send significantly colder air down the West
Coast area as the upper level long wave deepens over the area late
Tuesday. This will bring significantly colder air through the
interior as it pushes slowly eastward.
Middle Range continues to show a large upper level low poised to drop
southward over the Bering Strait by the end of the week. A ridge
will continue to remain in place over western Canada that will
allow a cutoff low to move northward in the circulation of the
ridge by the end of next week.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none. North winds over the
Arctic coast will continue to generate some wave action but
nothing significant at this time to issue any type of hazard.
Fire weather...the high relative humidity values over the central interior have
assisted with fire suppression. The upper level ridge over the
southern interior will continue to develop through the first part
of the week. Some drying will occur but the next system moves east
before significant drying occurs and spreads more rainfall over
the central interior by on night and Tuesday.
Hydrology...none at this time. Approximately one half inch of
rain may fall on the north slopes of the Brooks range but should
not create any issues as this time.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240-pkz245.
Cf Aug 15