Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion...resent
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
314 PM akdt Thursday Jul 10 2014
Aloft...models in decent agreement through 84 hours. Southerly
flow over the central and southern interior will continue through
the weekend. Currently middle and upper level clouds are moving
across the interior from the south. Two shortwaves will enhance
shower activity for the western interior tonight into Friday.
An upper level low will drop down from the high Arctic and
affect the North Slope Saturday evening into Sunday.
a 1022 mb high pressure center over the eastern Arctic will
slide to the east and weaken on Friday. A thermal trough will
develop this afternoon and the axis will lie on a line from
McGrath- Fairbanks-Chicken. The pressure gradient across the
Alaska Range with winds aloft support will generate strong and
gusty winds in and near Alaska Range passes...and in the Delta
Junction area beginning this afternoon. A surface low will
develop over the western interior Friday morning.
North Slope...easterly flow on Friday will become more northwestly
by Saturday morning as a weak upper level low near wrangel island
tracks to the east. Isolated to scattered rain showers may
develop east of Barrow by Saturday afternoon and continue into
West Coast...scattered to numerous showers expected in the
western interior and parts of the West Coast with the two short
waves and surface low pressure developing over the western
interior. Widespread rain or showers likely over much of the
central/ western interior and most of the Brooks range Friday.
For Friday afternoon and evening...isolated thunderstorms
expected over the central/western/northeastern interior areas.
Interior...southerly flow will continue over the interior the
next several Days. Gap flow winds in the Alaska Range will remain
strong through the weekend. Weak instability on Friday becoming
more more unstable Sat afternoon and evening...thunderstorm
activity likely over most of the interior except the east and
southeast parts and near the Alaska Range.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
min relative humidity likely to be above 30 percent in most interior
areas today through Sat. Lowest relative humidity values today will
likely be in the northeast interior. Gusty south winds
in Alaska Range passes and near Delta Junction likely
continuing into the weekend. Red flags may be needed in
zones 223...225 and 226 if relative humidity values dip below 30 percent Friday
significant rainfall amounts possible over the western
interior and in some inland West Coast areas Friday through
Sat...widespread amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch possible...maybe
some local amounts over an inch.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz240-pkz245-pkz210.
Jk Jul 14