Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
232 am akdt Friday Mar 27 2015
models initialized well and verified well against the 06z analysis
with the exception of temperatures over the interior with the GFS
still 5 degrees too cold and the NAM around 8 degrees too cold.
Position and strength of features otherwise verified well. Models
continue to display minimal spread through the short term and
expected amounts of spread in the middle term. Considerable spread
between forecast solutions is noted in the long term with
preference for the European model (ecmwf) based upon better run to run
consistency. Forecast package relied heavily on inherited
forecast and a blend of the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) models.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...high amplitude ridge over western North
America that extends north into the Yukon and northwest
territories will continue through the weekend. A short wave over
the northwest coast will strengthen as it pushes south over
western Alaska and contribute to deepening of the long wave trough
over the Bering Sea and northwest Gulf of Alaska. A 510 dam low
centered over the northwest coast moves south over the western
Brooks range and provides favorable environment over the western
interior and the North Slope for a weak front moving west and
northwest out of the central interior to strengthen today and
Saturday. Expect light snow showers north of Galena and mixed rain
and snow showers from Galena south with this front.
Leeward trough over the central interior will weaken and continue
to move northwest today as upper level winds diminish over the
Alaska Range. Advisory level winds will diminish this morning over
the Alaska Range and sub advisory winds through the central Alaska
Range passes will diminish this morning. The Chinook over the
central and eastern interior weakens some today but temperatures
with the airmass over the central and eastern interior will still
remain well above normal.
A weak trough over the North Slope will bring a mixed bag of
weather with stratus and flurries expected to spread across the
slope. Winds remain light over the North Slope.
Wind Advisory for akz226.
Ccc Mar 15