Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
350 PM akst Monday Jan 26 2015
overall the models are in good agreement in the short term. The
agreement between the models decrease by the end of the week.
A cold core 490 dm low that is currently just north of Barter
Island will move east will continue to move off to the east
through Tuesday afternoon. A short wave trough stretches from the
low to Umiat...this feature will move off to the east along with
the low. An area of high pressure centered over the western
interior will build over the North Slope overnight and into
North Slope...a surface low north north of Barter Island will
coupled with building surface high pressure over the interior
will help to tighten the pressure gradient across portions of the
North Slope this evening...particularly zones 202...203 and 204.
The increased pressure gradient will help to increase winds this
evening in zones 202...203 and 204. Blizzard conditions will
continue in zone 204 through late tomorrow morning. Near blizzard
conditions will continue in zone 203 through tomorrow late
tomorrow. The Blizzard Warning in 204 and the Winter Storm Warning
for 203 look to be in good shape. We put out a Wind Chill Advisory
for 202 until noon tomorrow as the winds should pick up a bit this
evening and wind chill values should decrease. Flurries or light
snow showers along with broken low level clouds are expected will
continue tonight across most of the eastern North Slope as short
wave passes through. Skies should clear up and winds should die
down tomorrow as high pressure builds in.
West Coast...winds will decrease tonight as an old weather front
over the Bering straight coast weakens. Temperatures will warm
increase slightly tomorrow across most coastal areas. There are
no wind chill advisories for the West Coast zones at the moment.
Although a few isolated locations could flirt with advisory
criteria...the decreasing trend in winds combined with increasing
temperatures resulted in a decision not to issue any wind chill
Interior...the coldest temperatures of the season were observed in
may locations today. Clear skies and high pressure will persist
over the next few days across the interior. Similar conditions are
expected across the interior tomorrow. Warmer air aloft is
expected to move in to the region by the end of the week...this
will result in a slow warming trend late in the week. Warmer
temperatures will likely come first to the hills...with The Flats
and valley bottoms taking a bit longer to warm up.
Wind Chill Advisory for akz202-akz218.
Winter Storm Warning for akz203-akz206.
Blizzard Warning for akz204.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz240-pkz245.
Rm Jan 15