Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
1243 PM akst Sat Dec 27 2014
upper level ridge extending from wrangel island to the Kenai
Peninsula and southeastward will move east to lie along the alcan
border and southward by Sun afternoon. Low amplitude short wave
trough over the eastern Aleutians will move northward across the
eastern Bering Sea tonight...and across northwest Alaska and the
Chukchi Sea sun...then curving eastward across the Arctic Ocean
Sun night into Monday...gradually intensifying during the period. The
short wave will flatten the top of the upper ridge...ridge axis
moving into the alcan border Sun night. Another ridge will
rebuild over Alaska by Monday night with the axis extending from
northwest Alaska southeastward across the Panhandle. Another short
wave will move northward across the Bering Sea and West Coast Tuesday
occluded front has moved north of St Lawrence Island and will be
moving northward and stretching a bit eastward across the West
Coast this afternoon and tonight. A wave north of the eastern
Aleutians will move northward across the eastern Bering Sea...developing
into a 998 mb low near the chukotsk peninsula by Sun morning. This low
will move northward into the Chukchi Sea by sun evening...then
curve across the Arctic Ocean through Monday with little change in
intensity. Another low will move northward across the eastern
Bering Sea Monday night and Tuesday. GOES infrared loop showing a strong
moisture feed northward across the west and southern areas of the
The northward moving front will produce snow over the the
southern West Coast areas tonight...spreading to the northern West
Coast areas sun. Snow developing over the southwest interior Sun
morning and spreading over most of the western interior sun.
Snow continuing redeveloping over the southern parts of the West
Coast Sun night. Blizzard conditions expected in zone 209...
especially at Kotzebue...and local blizzard conditions are
expected in zone 207...as the northward moving surface
system tightens the pressure gradient over the northern
West Coast. Air mass temperatures will be warm enough for
the precipitation to be mixed in parts of the southern West
Coast and southwest interior.
Strong southerly Chinook winds will develop in Alaska Range
passes Sun morning and continue at least into Monday night.
High wind warnings will be posted for the Alaska Range passes.
Advisory level wind gusts are expected in areas near Delta
Strong gusty south winds developing in Brooks range passes late
tonight continuing through Sun night. Blowing snow in passes
may cause low visibility. Winter weather advisories will be
posted for the Brooks range passes.
Brisk east winds developing across the Arctic coast and
off shore areas tonight as a surface high over northeast Alaska
shifts eastward into the Yukon territory. Brisk winds will
gradually shift to southwest as the surface low tracks eastward
across the Arctic coast.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Wind Advisory for akz217-akz223.
High Wind Warning for akz225-akz226-akz227.
Winter Storm Warning for akz207-akz210-akz211-akz212-akz213-
Blizzard Warning for akz209.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz205-akz206.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210.
Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz230-pkz235.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
Rf Dec 14