Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
420 PM akst Monday Dec 9 2013
ridge over stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to the Bering Strait
will split and weaken as the low in northwest Alaska moves over the
southern interior Tuesday. The low will then deepen Tuesday night and move
over SW Alaska Wednesday night. Snow with this low will spread from northwest
Alaska to the eastern interior tonight. NE winds aloft on the
north side of this low will mix down over the interior Tuesday night
through Thursday causing gusts up to 40 miles per hour over summits of interior
a 1020 mb low 100 nm south of Barrow will move to near Eagle by
3am Tuesday and to near Whitehorse by 3pm Tuesday. A cold front
stretching from the low to the Bering Strait will move south Eagle
to the Yukon Delta by 3am Tuesday and to Northway to the Yukon Delta
by 3pm Tuesday. There will be 1-2 inches of snow in the track of the
low. The will be and additional 2 inches of snow in the southeast
interior in the up slope NE flow behind the low Tuesday. Will see NE
winds 15 to 25 miles per hour along and behind the cold front.
A low pressure trough from Point Lay north will move south
to Norton Sound Tuesday. Will southeast gusty winds with this feature as
12z models show similar patterns. GFS keeps low aloft deeper than
the NAM as it moves from northwest Alaska into the interior tonight.
Prefer the 12z GFS solution. The 18z GFS appears to slow the
moving of this feature but we will stick with the 12z solution.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Blizzard Warning for akz202.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz203-akz206-akz224.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Jb Dec 13