Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
241 PM akdt Sat Mar 15 2014
Models...good agreement through 60 hours then some divergence on
the handling of the trough shearing off from the main low over
Russia and moving east over the state. Good concensus on the ridge
building in behind over the West Coast by late Wednesday. Good
initialization at the surface this morning and models are pretty
similar through midweek.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...closed 502 dam low over the lower Yukon Delta
is moving northeast and will be over Shishmaref by Sunday morning
and moves to 67n 175e by Monday morning. The associated shortwave
will sweep northeast over the forecast area to be over the Arctic
coast by Monday morning. A 497 dam closed low over the western
Aleutians will move over the central Bering Sea by Sunday
afternoon...then fill and track east as a 519 dam low over the
eastern interior by Tuesday evening. Ridge building in midweek
will push 540 heights over the lower Yukon Delta. At 850
hpa...20 below or colder air covers the southwest quarter of the
Mainland today...it will be pushed north tonight as warm air
surges north in advance of the next weather system...and the cold
Ball will exit the state Sunday evening. Weak warm air or neutral
advection over the remainder of the state.
Surface...low pressure system with multiple centers and associated
front continues to move north this afternoon as it weakens. High
pressure building in behind the front with a 1011mb center over
Tanana late this evening. High continues north with center over
Anaktuvuk Pass by Sunday morning...then it moves over the Arctic
coast and dissipates. A Sharp Ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will
push north over the southeast interior Sunday night into Monday
before being beaten down by the low pressure system moving over
the state. Strong gradient ahead of the low pressure system will
kick winds up over southwest Alaska and eventually over the Alaska
Arctic coast...npp viirs fog product at 15/1238z not showing much
stratus around but there is some that moved into Barrow this
morning and should move west tonight. Winds generally from the
southwest to west at 15 miles per hour through Sunday evening then becoming
east to 15 miles per hour. Not much change in temperatures through Tuesday.
West Coast and western interior...should be a wild couple of days
with the next system spreading north into the lower Delta by
Sunday morning then continuing up the West Coast. Winds gusting to
50 miles per hour with blowing snow to start...then a bout of heavy snow for
the Nulato Hills. Temperatures on the rise as cold air is pushed
Interior...pretty quiet tonight with partly cloudy skies over much
of the interior. Some strong winds developing in the Alaska Range
by Sunday evening with winds gusting to around 55 miles per hour. May get
some strong winds in the Delta Junction area...but will wait for
the next model run to see what it spits out. Temperatures steady
but may see a boost with the Chinook action in the Alaska Range.
Wind Advisory for akz226-akz227.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz212-akz213-akz214-akz215-akz216.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz210.
Sdb Mar 14