Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
315 PM akst Thursday Nov 26 2015
models in good agreement through at least 48 hours. Omega block
over Southeast Alaska with short wave embedded in the ridge over
east central interior. This is producing snowfall over the central
interior this afternoon. The main low is moving north through eas
central Alaska at a fairly rapid pace. It appears that by the
time that the warm air follows on that most of the precipitation
will have ended...which will limit any freezing rain
Vertically stacked low on the Aleutians will pinwheel around in
Bristol Bay through Saturday morning before most of its energy
being absorbed by the new low off of the Kamchatka peninsula with
deep trough over the Gulf of Alaska by Sat afternoon.
As the high builds in over the Arctic coast on Friday from far
east Russia...a low will develop from the parent low near Cold Bay
and will move north to near Nunivak Island by Friday afternoon. This
will cause a very tight pressure gradient over the Northwest
Arctic coast and through the Bering Strait Friday and Sat and to a
lesser degree on sun.
The airmass over the central interior will continue to stay warm
and by the first part of next week the 850 temperatures may soar above
zero for a few days. Not much cooling aloft is advertised to take
place through 240 hours over most of the state.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Winter Storm Warning for akz225-akz226.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz220-akz222.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz230.
Cf Nov 15