Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
112 PM akdt Tuesday Jul 7 2015
models initialized well and verified well against the 12z and 18z
analysis. Model spread remains small in the near term and middle term
and is reasonable in the long term.
Upper level ridge over the southeast interior continues to move
south as a col sets up over northeast Alaska. A shortwave rotating
around an upper level low in the Bering Sea will continue to move
north through the western and central interior. An upper level
high pressure system over the pole continues to press south
toward the North Slope.
The shortwave stalls along the western Brooks range tonight and
will be the Focal Point for numerous showers along a line eastward
to Bettles. Further east expect scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The shortwave will stall along the Brooks
range tonight and begin to move slowly south Wednesday as a front
along the McKenzie Delta pushes south over the Brooks range.
Wind shift behind the front has provided some relief to the dense
smoke over zones 207...208 and 217 along the West Coast and
western interior...however across the central interior southwest
transport winds continue to bring dense smoke north and east off
of the Rex complex fire to Nenana and Fairbanks where visibility
has dropped to one quarter mile in Nenana and one half mile at
times in Fairbanks. Dense smoke also noted in Tanana. Recent shift
from southwest to west noted on radar profiler over Fairbanks
however no significant improvement to visibility as there are
multiple fires west of Fairbanks. Scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected for Fairbanks and points east
tonight but will do little to improve visibility or air quality.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
no fire weather concerns as relative humidity values continue to increase with
southwest flow behind the front moving northeast over the central
and eastern interior. Winds continue to diminish through the
Alaska Range passes however west winds over interior summits with
gusts to 30 miles per hour will continue tonight.
dense smoke advisory for akz219-akz221-akz222.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz230-pkz235.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240-pkz245.
Ccc Jul 15