Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
631 am akdt Tuesday Jul 22 2014
a short wave trough over the West Coast of Alaska will move east
over Mainland Alaska through tonight. A second short wave over the
russian Arctic will move over Mainland Alaska Wednesday and phase in
with the first short wave. A third short wave will move south over
Alaska Thursday and merge with the previous waves to form a long wave
trough over Mainland Alaska. This trough will persist through the
weekend. This will keep conditions generally cool and wet through
Weak instability is a weak short wave trough from Tanana to
Denali will move to Coldfoot to Nenana by 4pm Tuesday and to Old Crow
to Eagle by 4am Wednesday. There are scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms with this trough now and expect those same
conditions to move NE with the trough.
a 988 mb low 500 nm north of Demarcation Point will move
northeast. A cold front stretching from this low to the Brooks
range to Kotzebue to St Matthew island will move inland to Arctic
Village to Ambler to Bethel by 4pm Tuesday...to Arctic Village to
Bettles to Anvik by 4am Wednesday...and the dissipating from Arctic
Village to McGrath by 4pm Wednesday. There is widespread rain along the
front. Expect .25 to 1.00 inch of rain through Wednesday along the front
with the heaviest in the upslope areas of the Brooks range.
High pressure will build over the Arctic coast today and weaken
Wednesday. This will cause fog along the Arctic coast.
A low developing in chukotka today will move to Kivalina as a
1002 mb low by 4pm Wednesday...to Anaktuvuk Pass by 4am Thursday...and to
Arctic Village by 4pm Thursday. A cold front trailing this low will
bring much cooler air into the North Slope and West Coast of
Alaska with snow possible in northwest Alaska and the Brooks range Wednesday
night and Thursday. Expect another .25 inch of rain with the front and
50-1.00 inch along the Brooks range. Could see several inches of
snow in the Brooks range Wednesday night and Thursday with this.
models in fair agreement through Thursday.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
25 to 1.00 inch expected through Wednesday western interior and south
slopes of Brooks range from pipeline west. This will cause rises
on Koyukuk...Kobuk and Noatak rivers and small streams in those
basins over next several days.
With river levels elevated over the northern interior and western
interior this new rain will put them at high levels although the
rain does not appear to be intense enough to cause flooding at
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220.
Jb Jul 14