Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
219 PM akst Wednesday Nov 26 2014
Upper air...models are in good agreement through Saturday. Ridge
axis from Kodiak to well north of Point Lay will shift east and
build. By Friday afternoon the axis will extend from the Gulf of
Alaska to Barrow then west to near wrangel island. The ridge will
shift to the southeast interior Saturday and as a trough begins
working its way east into the south interior. Multiple low
pressures over the western Bering Sea will transition into a
single 514dm low west of the pribilofs by Thursday afternoon.
This low will shift to the Gulf of Anadyr and weaken to 521dm with
trough extending to south of Cold Bay Friday afternoon. As the low
weakens...the trough will break away and move east across
northern Alaska Friday night through Sunday.
Surface...a 982 mb low 800 miles southwest of Gambell will move to
300 miles southwest of Gambell by Thursday afternoon weakening
to 986 mb. The low will be 998 mb 200 miles west of Gambell Friday
afternoon. A strong weather front will move north from the Bering
Strait and north across the south Chukchi Sea Wednesday night.
Another weather front will move northward across Saint Lawrence
Island Thursday. The front will move north across Norton Sound
and the Bering Strait Thursday night. A strong ridge of high
pressure extending from the eastern Beaufort Sea to the Northwest
Arctic ocean will persist through Friday.
North Slope...areas of fog...flurries and rather light winds will
prevail through Sunday. Models indicate colder airmass from the
northeast entering the picture Sunday night through Tuesday.
West Coast...winds will be the main forecast problem for the West
Coast area. As low pressures continue to spawn and move north over
the central to east Bering Sea there will be moderate to possibly
strong winds for parts of the area and in particular for the Saint
Lawrence Island waters. Gale winds for Saint Lawrence Island
waters will likely persist through Thursday night. Rain and snow
showers for Saint Lawrence Island and lows to the west continue to
bring waves north over the area. Forecast continues with a chance
of freezing rain in the next few periods for zones 213 and 214 as
temperatures near the surface hover in the lower to middle 30s. The
rest of the West Coast zones will have mainly isolated to
scattered snow showers.
Interior...snow showers over the southeast interior will end late
tonight as ridge builds. Low stratus will linger in valley floors
through the night. Snow showers will likely develop again from the
west on Saturday and move east across the south interior and
Alaska Range through Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be in the 1 to
2 inch range...except some possible higher amounts in the Alaska
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz220-pkz225.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225.
Gale Warning for pkz210.
Da Nov 14