Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
615 am akdt Friday Jul 3 2015
The weak weather front over the Beaufort Sea that presently
extends southwest from near Nuiqsut to the western Brooks range
will likely stall out today. It will receive some support from
the next short wave tonight though. That one is still over the
high Arctic north of Barrow...but is moving rapidly southeast.
The combination will likely move the old front east over the
Arctic coast to be near Demarcation Point Saturday morning
and trailing southwest and west over the Brooks range...where
it will subsequently dissipate (finally). Expect some convective
action over the Arctic zones east of the front again this
afternoon and tonight...most vigorous over the Brooks range.
The portion of the front south of the Brooks range lies over
the western interior. Most of it has already become diffuse.
There is a nice short wave over zone 215 that is keeping things
going in that area though. The showers (and mainly diurnal
thunderstorms) will spread into zone 227 today and into zone
225 this evening.
The central and eastern interior will continue to stabilize
from the west. Convective action today and tonight will be
confined to eastern portions of zones 218 and 220 and to zones 224
The models all have the low center aloft near Kotzebue moving
southwest over Norton Sound by this time Saturday...then west
as it is entrained by the much strong low aloft...presently
near Adak...that will gradually be moving north over the
Bering Sea over the next few days. The warm air coming in
aloft will build a ridge aloft over much of Mainland Alaska
this weekend. Warmer and dryer in the interior.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
presumably more issues with over the interior this weekend and
early next week as temperatures rise.
the 1 to 3 inches of rain that fell over zones 222 through 226
Tuesday night through Thursday has brought small streams up and
the medium sized rivers are rising. Some sites are probably near
bankfull...but there are no known flooding issues.
dense smoke advisory for akz221.
Djh Jul 15