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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
314 am akdt sun Aug 31 2014

Discussion...
models continue with good run to run continuity as well as model
to model continuity through the short term and middle term. Deep
upper level low around 510 dam at 500 hpa and currently located
300 nm northwest of Barrow continues to wobble around as it drifts
slightly to the west through Tuesday. A weak shortwave along a
pasc to paun line continues to move to the south and east and
will be the Focal Point for scattered rain showers and mountain
snow showers as it moves through the West Coast and western
interior. The short wave become hard to define and locate Sunday
night as it moves into the central interior. As the short wave
continues to weaken expect only an increase in clouds and isolated
showers as the short wave passes through the central interior.

Focus turns to a rapidly developing Fall storm that will bring
strong winds...heavy rain and mountain snow in the Brooks range
and strong winds and heavy rain through the western and central
interior Monday through Wednesday. A very strong shortwave
rotating around the upper level low northwest of Barrow will
combine with favorable upper level dynamics over the Bering Strait
Monday and will produce a surface low that will track east along
the Brooks range Monday night and Tuesday. The surface 997 mb low
is expected to develop near Kotzebue Sound Monday evening and will
track east to be near pabt as a 995 mb low Tuesday morning and
will continue to track to the northwest to be located near parc as
a 994 mb low Tuesday morning. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models
continue to indicate storm total quantitative precipitation forecast from Monday morning to
Wednesday morning well in excess of 1 inch over a broad area of
the interior with 2 plus inch bulls eyes over the western Alaska
Range as a front stalls just north of the Alaska Range. Plenty of
wind with the system as well with 850 mb jet streak of around 55
kts moves move into the interior over a paeg to pafa to pamc line
Monday and Tuesday. Expect gusty southwest wind gusts to develop
over interior Highway summits and passes through the day Monday.
Snow levels rise to around 4500 feet in the Alaska Range and over
the southern interior Monday and Monday night but fail to rise
much over 3000 feet in the Brooks range...will need to monitor
central and eastern Brooks range for snow headlines especially
over Atigun Pass. Those with outdoor activities in the Brooks
range Monday and in the western Alaska Range Tuesday should be
prepared for winter conditions. Snow levels will fall in the
western Alaska Range from 4500 feet to around 2500 feet Tuesday night
and there is the potential for significant snow accumulation above
pass level. Again those with outdoor activities in the high
country should be prepared for rapidly deteriorating winter
conditions Monday in the Brooks range and Tuesday and Wednesday in
the western Alaska Range. Continue to monitor for winter headline
potential in the Brooks range and Alaska Range and for Hydro
headlines over the central interior.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...
elevated surf possible Monday night and Tuesday from Point Barrow
west as 25 knots west to northwest winds buffet the coast. Continue
to monitor for high surf potential.

&&

Fire weather...
none.

&&

Hydrology...
will need to monitor as models continue to indicate storm total
quantitative precipitation forecast amounts in excess of an 1 inch over a large area of the
central interior. This amount of rain would cause significant
rises on already high interior river levels. Models continue to
indicate storm total precipitation amounts of 2 plus inches in the
western Alaska Range. Run off in these areas will be complicated
as higher elevations will likely see at least some of the precipitation
as snow.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
frost advisory for akz222.
&&

$$

Ccc Aug 14

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