Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
123 PM akdt Thursday Aug 21 2014
long wave ridge from the NE Pacific to northern Alaska will move
east over the weekend. A long wave trough over the Bering Sea will
move slowly east over western Alaska sun and over interior Alaska
Monday then remain entrenched over interior Alaska next week. This
will keep conditions warmer than normal with isolated showers
through this weekend...then be more cloudy with scattered showers
and temperatures closer to normal next week.
A short wave trough from Point Lay to Fort Yukon to Northway will
move to Barrow to Old Crow by 4am Friday...and to Barter Island east
by 4pm Friday. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
east of the trough from the Brooks range south...numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Brooks range...and
scattered showers east of the trough north of the Brooks. Expect
rainfall amounts of .25-.50 inch with the showers...heaviest in
the Brooks range.
A second short wave trough in the western Chukchi Sea will move
to Barrow to the Bering Strait by 4pm Friday...and to Prudhoe Bay to
Tanana by 4pm Sat...and to the alcan border sun. Expect scattered
showers ahead of this feature with some isolated thunderstorms in
the eastern interior with the trough Sat and sun.
A third short wave in the Gulf of Alaska will move to the southeast
interior Friday and then move slowly east. Expect scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms with this feature.
temperatures range from 1c along the West Coast to 6c along the
alcan border. Temperatures warm 1-2c Friday and another 1-2c Sat.
a thermal trough from Northway to Arctic Village will persist
A ridge of high pressure over the Beaufort Sea will persist
through Sat and move east sun. This will keep east winds and areas
of low stratus/fog along the eastern Arctic coast.
High pressure over the West Coast of Alaska will persist through
Sat and weaken sun. Will see patchy fog under this high tonight
A low moving into the southeast Bering Sat/sun will bring rain to SW
Alaska Sat night/sun.
models show similar solutions through sun...then start to diverge
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
relative humidity generally above 30% through next week.
expect rainfall amounts of .25-.50 inch along the alcan border
and eastern Brooks range...heaviest in the Brooks range. Will
raise water levels slightly in eastern Brooks and 40 Michigan areas.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235.
Jb Aug 14