Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
601 am akst Friday Nov 27 2015


Models in good agreement through at least 48 hours. Upper level
ridging over the interior today will weaken and slide to the east
over the canandian Yukon. Upper level low over the eastern
Aleutians will track northeast and weaken over the Yukon Delta
Saturday morning and then track over Saint Lawrence Island
Saturday evening. Continued warm temperatures today over the interior
with a cooling trend over the weekend.

Surface...high pressure will build in through Friday over the Arctic
coast from the parent high in far east Russia. Strong 975 mb low
near Cold Bay will move to near Nunivak Island by early Sat
morning as a 979 mb low and produce a very strong pressure
gradient over the Northwest Arctic coast. The low will weaken to
981 just south of Saint Lawrence Island by Saturday afternoon.

West Coast...a decent pressure gradient developing over the West
Coast today and tonight between the high over the Arctic and low
pressure moving into the Bering Sea. Gusts to 50 miles per hour possible near
Point Hope and areas along the Bering Strait through Saturday.
Winds will diminish some on Sunday. Some snow is expected with low
over the West Coast but light amounts expected. Zone 213 will see
lower visibility in blowing snow tonight and Saturday.

Interior...moderate Chinook this morning and afternoon in the
Alaska Range. Gusts to 60 miles per hour in passes are possible in the usual
channelled areas. Wind advisories have been issued for zones 225
and 226. Delta Junction could see gusts up to 50 miles per hour. Very light
returns on the radar this morning. Isolated snow showers and a
slight chance for freezing rain over the interior this morning.
Little to no ice accumulation expected. Slightly cooler temperatures on
Saturday and even colder on Sunday as ridging weakens and cooler
850 temperatures move in aloft.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory for akz225-akz226.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.

Gale Warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz220-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-


Nov 15

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations