Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
138 PM akdt sun Mar 29 2015
Aloft...models in good agreement with upper level 514 dam low
over Kotzebue forecasted to slide west and be over Chukchi Sea
by Monday afternoon. This upper low will linger over the area
on Tuesday then pushed north as ridging builds over West Coast.
Weak ridging will linger over the interior with a few ripples of
energy moving from the south to the north the next couple of days.
Not much precipitation expected from these weak shortwaves for the
interior only middle and upper level clouds moving across the area.
By middle week ridging over the west coat will begin to influence the
interior with a cooling trend expected late next week.
Surface...a strong 1030 mb high pressure center over the high
Arctic will push south over the weekend and then remain positioned
400 nm north of Demarcation Point into early next week. Broad low
pressure will persist over Mainland Alaska with a weak trough
extending into the southern Arctic plain. A 987 mb low just east
of Kodiak Island will move inland and weaken to 1000 mb over the
Yukon Delta on Monday.
North Slope...upper level low will bring some light snow showers
to the eastern parts of the Brooks range with light snowfall
accumulations through today. The pressure gradient will increase
across the North Slope and strong easterly winds likely to develop
on Monday for the eastern North Slope. Visibilities will have to
be watched for possible ground blizzard coniditions Monday
afternoon into Monday evening for zones 202-204.
Interior... surface temperatures in the central and southern interior
are expected to remain above normal with daytime temperatures in
the middle to upper 40s the next couple of days and then a slight
cooling back to seasonal norms by Tuesday and for the rest of the
week. The snow pack over southern interior continues to wither
and will continue to see slow melting and runoff especially over
southerly exposures during the day. Chinook winds possible in the
Alaska Range but remaining under advisory level through Tuesday.
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-
Jk Mar 15