Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
201 PM akdt Tuesday Sep 2 2014
models continue to be in good agreement on track and strength of
synoptic scale features through both the short term and the middle
term. Considerable differences begin to develop in the long term
especially early next week with pattern change.
Currently a very winter like 510 dam low at 500 hpa remains parked
approximately 100 nm west northwest of Barrow. A powerful
front extends east of the low past Demarcation Point and then
southward through the McKenzie Delta and northern Yukon and then
extends southwest from Old Crow to Fort Yukon to Fairbanks to
McGrath. The front will continue to push to the east into Canada
Ahead of the front heavy rain pushed through the interior with
widespread reports of 1 to 2 inches and several locations
reporting over 2 inches. Snow levels ahead of the front allowed
for rain generally below 3000 feet. Rain rapidly changed to snow
this morning in Denali park with 5 inches reported over higher
passes. Heavy snow also reported through Atigun Pass in the
Brooks range. Snow levels are expected to drop to under 500 feet
in the northern interior and to around 1500 feet near Fairbanks
Flood Warning issued for the upper chena river basin with reports
of over 2 inches of rain. A Flood Advisory has been issued for the
little chena river. Flood Watch for the chatinika river will be
dropped however water levels will remain high. Continue to monitor
for additional Hydro headlines in the Tanana Valley basin as
additional rain reports filter in.
Next powerful shortwave rotating around the upper level low is
currently rotating on shore over the northwest coast. 30 knots west
to northwest winds continue to bring high surf and elevated water
levels along the northwest coast. Continue to monitor for possible
high surf headlines along the eastern North Slope coast as winds
build to gale force late tonight and continue through tomorrow.
Blizzard Warning issued for eastern Brooks range zone 206 as
ample moisture combined strong winds and unseasonable cold air
mass sweep over the eastern North Slope as the next powerful
shortwave races east tonight and tomorrow. The tail end of the
shortwave dips into the northern interior and will be the Focal
Point for scattered rain and snow showers as the front sweeps
through the interior tomorrow.
A weak low develops in the Gulf of Anadyr Thursday morning and
moves northeast and weakens as it moves into the Bering Strait
Friday. The surface low weakens and is lost as it moves into the
western interior however the shortwave continues to the east and
will be located along a pasc to pafm to paom line Friday evening
and along a parc to pfyu to pamc line Saturday morning. Only
isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected over the
West Coast and western interior as the shortwave continues to move
into the interior.
Low confidence forecast Saturday and Sunday and into early next
week as models display divergent solutions as current weather
pattern breaks down
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...
high surf advisories for zone S 201 and 202. Continue to monitor
for possible headlines for eastern North Slope coastal zones as
sustained gale force west winds move into the area.
Flood Warning has been issued for the upper chena and a Flood
Advisory has been issued for the little chena river. The Flood
Watch has been cancelled for the chatinika river...however a
Hydro statement covering high water levels is in the works.
Blizzard Warning for akz206
Wind Advisory for akz220-akz221-akz222.
High surf advisory for akz201-akz202.
Flood Warning for the upper chena
Flood Advisory for the little chena
Small Craft Advisory for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.
Gale Warning for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Ccc Sep 14