Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
623 am akdt sun may 24 2015
aloft...a high amplitude long wave pattern consisting of a ridge
over western Canada and eastern Alaska with a trough over the
Bering and northwest Pacific will persist through at least mid-week.
This will keep temperatures well above normal for the eastern
interior and eastern North Slope through middle-week while the West
Coast and western interior remain closer to normal temperatures.
A series of short wave troughs moving north across Alaska will
bring periods of showers over the next several days.
Area of instability NE of Eagle to Arctic Village is expected to
have isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. With moisture
very limited only expect 25 strikes or less today in that area but
thunderstorms will be dry. This areas will have added moisture Monday
with the incoming short waves and will see thunderstorms become
scattered and wet.
The first short wave trough that lies from Kotzebue to Kenai will
move to Point Lay to Anchorage by 4pm sun...to Wainwright to
Talkeetna to Cordova by 4am Monday...to Barrow to Bettles to Northway
by 4pm Monday then dissipating in place. There are isolated to
scattered showers along this trough that will spread east with
A second short wave trough will move to the Gulf of Alaska coast
tonight...over the southeast interior Monday and over the NE interior Monday
night and over the eastern North Slope Tuesday. When this trough
encounters the more unstable air in NE Alaska Monday expect
scattered PM thunderstorms. Could see local rainfalls of .25-50
inch in the NE interior and eastern North Slope Monday-Monday night.
At this time it appears as though heavy amounts will not be
widespread but will need to be watched carefully over the eastern
Brooks range and North Slope where rivers area at flood stage now
and high temperatures will be keeping them high due to snow melt.
A third short wave will move north over the southeast interior Tuesday
to keep the scattered showers going.
strong high pressure north of the Arctic coast will persist
through Tuesday. There is a large mass of stratus/fog under this high
that is moving towards the Arctic coast from Barrow east and is
expected to move over the coast later this morning.
East winds 20-30 knots from Barrow east will decrease from the west
today and tonight as the gradient decreases near the thermal
A thermal trough that lies from Umiat to Livengood to Eagle will
move to Nuiqsut to Arctic Village to Eagle by 4pm sun...and remain
there through Monday. 850 mm temperatures of 14-16c over the trough
will support surface temperatures in the middle 80s along the trough
today. There are winds 10g15 miles per hour blowing into the trough over the
interior now that will persist into this evening. Gusty winds
through Alaska Range passes will decrease later today as the
trough moves north away from the range.
models appear to initialize well and show similar solutions.
hot and dry conditions with relative humidity in the low teens continue today
east of Fairbanks while clouds bring higher humidities from
Fairbanks west. Dry thunderstorms NE of Eagle to Arctic Village
today will bring about 25 strikes to that area today.
Gusty winds through Alaska Range passes will decrease tonight.
Expect scattered wet thunderstorms NE of Eagle to Arctic Village
Monday and Tuesday.
flooded portion of the lower Noatak has decreased in extent so
have cancelled the advisory there...and will trim the watch on The
Porcupine down to below the mouth of the coleen river. Otherwise
advisories...warnings...and watches remain as snow melt
red flag warning for akz220-akz223-akz224-akz226.
Flood Advisory for azk203
Flood Warning for akz203-akz220
Flood Watch for akz203-akz220.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Jb may 15