Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
342 AM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. SURFACE FEATURES LEAVE A LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN TERMS
OF WIND SPEEDS...DIRECTION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA
AND ADDED ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH ITS ADVANCE. IT
HAS NOW REACHED THE ALCAN BORDER AND SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY FROM ABOUT TANANA EAST.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH PASSES IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE
ALASKA RANGE...STARTING IN THE BROOKS RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON
SUN AND SUN NIGHT IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. THE TANANA VALLEY
JET WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
SUN...ALBEIT THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE PASSES LOOK TO BE THE
RECIPIENT OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT THIS POINT.

THE WEST COAST IS A MESS. THE WARM FRONT OF THE LARGE BERING LOW
IS MOVING UP THE WEST COAST TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT
COAST TODAY BUT ONLY SKIRTING THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL JUST SEE THE INCREASED WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF TODAY OVER MOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ON SUN. THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOUND.

EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY
TO BE MOSTLY ALL SNOW ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND THE SNOWFALL FROM
THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT. IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS SUN
AND SUN NIGHT WITH SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AS WELL.

HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE BERING LOW WILL
INCREASE TODAY ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND TONIGHT ON THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG BUT SINCE IT
IS WARM ADVECTION IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY COULD
BE. ABOVE FREEZING LAYER AT 850 MB WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY TO BARTER
ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

$$

CF DEC 14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations