Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 AM AKDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING...THEN 
EXIT EASTWARD INTO CANADA. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF NORTHERN ALASKA SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. ON SUN AND MON...MOST
OF THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK FLOW AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW 150 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD SAT...TO ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN...AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SUN. A BROAD AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR MON. RAIN OR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND MOST OF THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINING AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY.
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUN OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH REMAINING ABOVE 40 PERCENT TODAY AND SUN. MAYBE A MODICUM
OF DRYING MON WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN AND MON IN AREAS WITHIN AROUND
100 MILES OF A LINE ANVIK-50 MILES SOUTH OF TANANA-FAIRBANKS-50
MILES NORTH OF EAGLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS ON THE UPPER CHENA RIVER ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS A
RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL. GENERAL RISES ARE EXPECTED ON MOST
OTHER RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST 30 HOURS
HAVE BEEN IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS WERE 2.6 INCHES AT MUNSON RIDGE
AND 2.1 INCHES AT UPPER CHENA DOME. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN AROUND
0.1 INCH...MAINLY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF AUG 14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations