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NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 AM AKDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL WITH ECMWF EDGING OUT THE OTHERS
WITH BEST 850 MB TEMPERATURE INITIALIZATION OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND DISPLAYED MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IN TRACK AND STRENGTH ON FEATURES IN THE MID TERM AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS...HOWEVER IN THE LONG RANGE THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 521 DAM LOW CURRENTLY OVER BARROW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO BE ABSORBED BY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY
400 NM NORTH OF THE DEMARCATION POINT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG A PABR
TO PAFM TO PAUN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A PASC TO PAFA TO PAMC LINE THIS
EVENING AND ALONG A PABA TO PAEG TO PAOR LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE A 996 MB LOW NEAR BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
MESSY WEATHER OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WATER AND SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 700 MB BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ENHANCE UP SLOPE FLOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM TUESDAY FOR EXPECTED 4
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET.

AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BARROW MOVES EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT RAIN AT VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND A RAIN SNOW MIX IN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN FAIRBANKS. THE FRONT WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES INLAND AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER HIGHWAY
SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY AND OVER THE TYLER HIGHWAY TONIGHT.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT.
FAVORED UP SLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY ESPECIALLY NEAR ATIGUN PASS
TODAY AND EASTWARD TO THE BORDER TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR
EXPECTED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 1500 FT IN ZONE 218.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14

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