Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
125 PM akst Thursday Dec 5 2013
models in decent agreement through 60 hours. Upper level ridge
with axis through center of state will continue to build
northward and strengthen through Friday as the center approaches
Valdez. This is ushering extremely warm air northward and keeping
precipitation on the West Coast as rain through much of the
weekend before a cold front pushes east Sat afternoon and evening
over the West Coast from the north.
Precipitation will likely turn over to snow from about Nome westward
on Saturday. The initial punch of cold air is not as strong as the
follow on surge from the stronger upper level low with associated
short wave moving to near Point Hope by sun evening.
First round of precipitation over the interior will likely be
freezing rain this evening and then continuing through Friday. As of
now it appears that the heaviest amounts of freezing rain will
remain north of the Fairbanks area Thursday night but may encompass
most of the Fairbanks area beginning Friday morning. Warm air will
not retreat immediately so no snow to follow as short wave moves
across the ridge.
Rain...freezing rain and snow...becoming probably all snow Sat
morning...will move across the Arctic coast beginning early this
evening and then continuing eastward. Winds will remain at or near
brisk wind across the Arctic coast through Friday.
Strong cold advection is advertised to move into northern Alaska
by late Sun night or early Monday and continue southward on Tuesday.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Winter Storm Watch for akz218-akz220-akz222.
Ice Storm Warning for akz216.
Winter Storm Warning for akz208-akz217-akz219-akz221.
Freezing Rain Advisory for akz207-akz209-akz215.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz201-akz205-akz227.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
Cf Dec 13