Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
507 am akdt Tuesday Jul 28 2015
Weak upper level ridging across the interior will persist through
Wednesday...then gradually build in from the west later in the
week and into the weekend. This will bring 850 mb temperatures
over the central and eastern interior up to a few degrees above
normal. This warming aloft will also be reflected in surface high
temperatures...which are expected to return to the lower to middle
70s in the central and eastern interior.
A most and unstable air mass will persist over much of the
interior through Wednesday...and over southern and eastern
interior Thursday. As stronger upper level ridging builds in
from the west late in the week...the unstable air will be pushed
gradually southeastward. Convective activity Friday is expected to
be limited mainly to the Alaska Range and southeast interior. By
Saturday...isolated thunderstorms will likely be limited to the
extreme southeast interior near the alcan border. A broad
trough of low pressure will persist over the interior through
Thursday which will provide weak low level convergence for the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Precipitable water values in the interior continue to be above
normal...0.9 inch at Fairbanks and 0.8 inch at McGrath. With light
winds aloft...thunderstorms will be nearly stationary or slow
moving with locally heavy rainfall amounts possible. Precipitable
water values in the central interior are expected to be near
seasonal normals Wednesday and Thursday...around 0.75 inch...with
drier air over the northern interior.
Areas of dense fog continuing along the Arctic coast and most
West Coast areas through noon today with light onshore wind flow.
Onshore wind flow is expected to continue through Wednesday...
and areas of dense fog will likely redevelop late tonight.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
a moist convective regime will persist over much of the interior
through Wednesday...and over the southern and eastern interior
Thursday. With light winds aloft and precipitable water levels
above normal today and near normal Wednesday and Thursday...showers
and thunderstorms will be stationary or slow moving with potential
for heavy rainfall. Some drying is expected Wednesday and Thursday
with high temperatures returning to near normal...but afternoon
humidities will remain above 30 percent.
rainfall amounts of up to 1.9 inches fell Sunday night and Monday
in the southeastern middle Tanana Valley and nearby areas of
deltana and the upper Yukon valley. Heavy showers occurred in the
Fairbanks area Monday evening and overnight...producing almost
an inch of rain. Heavy showers are approaching the Salcha area at
this time. Locally heavy rainfall is possible today in slow moving
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values in the
southern interior are about 0.8 to 0.9 inch this morning.
River levels on the Salcha river...little chena river...and
the upper reaches of the chena river are rising in response
to recent rainfall.
small stream Flood Advisory for akz225-akz226.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220.
Rf Jul 15