Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
158 PM akst Thursday Feb 11 2016
the long wave pattern consisting of a long wave ridge over
western Canada with a long wave trough over the Bering and North
Pacific. This pattern will progress east with the trough moving
over Mainland Alaska be early next week followed by a ridge
building over Alaska by middle of next week.
This broad scale patter will cause the eastern interior to keep
temperatures well above normal and remain drier than normal
through next week. The North Slope will remain just above normal
for temperature through next week. The West Coast and western
interior will remain near normal temperatures through the weekend
and then become wetter and warmer than normal next week.
A low aloft near Ambler will move to Point Hope by 3am Sat and
then remain quasi stationary through sun. Middle level clouds and
flurries are associated with this low.
A short wave trough from the low to Nuiqsut will move to Ambler to
Barrow by 3am Friday...to Kotzebue to Point Lay by 3pm Friday...and then
move northwest. Light snow will move west with this trough
dropping 1-2 inches over the next few days.
A second short wave from Northway east will move to Fort Yukon
east by 3am Friday and then move northeast. An areas of snow showers
associated with this will move north with the trough and diminish
south of the trough. Could see 1-2 inches of snow.
850 mb temperatures vary from -2c over the southeast interior to
-14c over the northern interior and Arctic coast. Temperatures
will warm several degrees over the eastern interior and eastern
North Slope through Friday while temperatures fall several degrees
over the West Coast and western North Slope.
a strong ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic coast will
persist through the weekend. This will keep east winds blowing
along the Arctic coast through the weekend.
A weather front stretching from Bristol Bay to Tanana to Arctic
Village will move to Dillingham to Bettles to deadhorse then east
by 3am Friday...to Anvik to Ambler to Atqasuk to Barter Island by
3pm Friday...to Anvik to Red Dog to Prudhoe Bay by 3am Sat... and to
Anvik to Ambler to to 998 mb low near Point Hope to Barrow and
east by 4pm Sat. Snow is occuring along this front. Expect 1-2
inches of snow with the front with up to 3 inches in the western
interior. Will see east winds increase along the Arctic coast from
Barrow east tonight and Friday and could lead to another round of low
visibility in blowing snow for zones 203 204 Friday and 202 Friday
Weak Chinook flow over the Alaska Range is now occuring and will
continue tonight then decrease Friday.
A second weather front in the Gulf of Alaska will move along the
Alaska Range by 3pm Friday...to McGrath to Livengood to Eagle by 3am
Sat and to McGrath to Tanana to Old Crow by 3pm Sat. Expect
isolates snow showers with this except for scattered snow showers
near the alcan border.
models initialize well. Similar solutions through 3pm Friday...then
the NAM further north with the low in the Chukchi Sea and weaker
with the short wave moving north over the Gulf of Alaska than the
GFS and ecmf solutions. The GFS/ecmf sultans similar through the
weekend and are preferred. Start to see large differences on short
waves next week so favor the ensembles per the HPC discussion.
Wind Advisory for akz226.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz202-akz203-akz204.
Gale Warning for pkz245.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz235-pkz240.
Jb Feb 16