Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
139 am akdt Tuesday Jul 29 2014
Models...are similar out to 60 hours or so in the upper levels
and at the surface.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...closed low height center that was over Ruby
Monday afternoon has dropped south over Kodiak Island and will be
absorbed by the 556 dam low closed low over the Gulf of Alaska
tonight. Ridging continues to build over the Brooks range this
morning and will drift south over the interior today as the 588
dam center over the eastern Aleutians drifts over the eastern
Bering Sea by Wednesday morning. 570 dam heights will push east
over the Fairbanks area late tonight and persist into early
Friday morning before pulling back to the west as the ridge
weakens. At 850 hpa...most of the forecast area will see
temperatures rise 3 to 5 celsius over the next couple days then
begin to slowly fall by late Friday.
Surface...a ridge of high pressure up the West Coast and over the
Arctic coast will build southeast to extend from the central
Aleutians to Barter Island by Wednesday morning...then extend from
the Pribilof Islands to Fairbanks to McKenzie Bay by Thursday
morning. The ridge will continue to swing southeast and lie from
the pribilofs across southcentral Alaska and the northern Gulf of
Alaska by early Friday. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this
morning will drift southeast. A weak trough of low pressure will
develop over northwest Alaska by late Wednesday evening and
slowly work east as the northern part of the ridge slides east.
Not much precipitation wise as the ridge builds in. Next shot of
rainfall will be over the northwest coast as the low pressure
develops on Thursday and spreads over the West Coast through
Arctic coast...high pressure moving over the area as low pulls
out. Some lingering precipitation over the far northeast around
Barter Island...but not much expected. Some winds over the Brooks
range this morning...but they will be dying down pretty quickly
this morning. Not seeing any reason to clear them out...even with
the ridge overhead...so will keep persistent cloudiness in place.
West Coast and western interior...pretty nice out west...and see
no reason to make any changes to that. With ridge pushing north
and east...no changes expected until late Thursday as weak trough
of low pressure develops northwest of the Bering Strait and moves
east. Look for showers to develop over St Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait by Thursday morning.
Interior...not much going on next couple days. Mostly clear and
dry with the exception of the far southeast corner...southeast of
Tok. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 today...then warmer the
next couple days with highs in most areas in the 70s by Thursday.
Looks like August will start off nice...but it is looking like
that will likely change to cloudy and wet by early next week.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Fire weather...drier conditions over the next several days across
most of the forecast area...however not much expected wind wise
and conditions remain marginal in many areas as far as burnable
fuels are concerned.
Sdb Jul 14