Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
246 PM akdt Friday Oct 31 2014
aloft...low over southeast Bering Sea moving to southeast of
Kodiak Island through Monday. Trough moving north over eastern Alaska
Range Sat am and over the fortymile country Sat night them
drifting into Canada thereafter.
Surface...966 mb low over southern Bristol Bay will move to the
southern Alaska Peninsula 4pm sun weakening to 988 mb with a second low
center over Cook Inlet of 991 mb at that time. Associated
occlusion drifting north to extend from the Yukon Delta to
McGrath 4pm Sat then dissipating. 1019 mb high over the north
Chukchi Sea and western Beaufort Sea will drift east through Monday.
Weakening occlusion from Tanana to Fort Yukon to western Canada
dissipating by 4am Sat.
Models...agree fairly well overall in short term. In medium term
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree well through Thursday...then diverge
North Slope...east winds over the far west portion of the western
Arctic coast will hold into the weekend. Otherwise quiet weather
for the near term.
Western Alaska...windy conditions beginning to diminish slowly
late Sat. Spotty snow over the Yukon Delta...lower Yukon valley
and possibly the southern Nulato Hills Sat as weakening occlusion
Interior...a few snow showers or flurries over the eastern third
this evening will diminish and clouds will decrease further. Wind
conditions over summits and local places continuing through Sat.
The weak trough moving north late Sat and sun will bring some
clouds and snow showers to areas from Fairbanks east and Eagle
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-
Small Craft Advisory for pkz220-pkz230.
Gale Warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz225.
Jl Oct 14