Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
606 am akdt Monday may 25 2015
aloft...the long wave pattern consists of a high
amplitude ridge over northwest Canada and eastern Alaska and a high
amplitude trough over the Bering Sea and northwest Pacific. This pattern
will hold through late in the week. A series of short wave troughs
will move north over northern Alaska in this flow. Expect areas of
showers and thunderstorms with the troughs. Expect temperatures to
remain well above normal over the eastern interior and eastern
North Slope through late in the week and near normal over the West
A low aloft just north of Eagle will move to Arctic Village this
afternoon and then dissipate near deadhorse tonight. This is
serving as a lifting mechanism and will be a focus point for
thunderstorms today and tonight.
A short wave trough from Point Lay to Denali to Yakutat will
move to Point Lay to Ambler to Chicken by 4pm today... to
Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Eagle by 4am Tuesday...and to just
north of Barrow to Barter Island to Old Crow by 4pm Tuesday. There are
scattered to isolated showers north of this trough that will
become more numerous as the trough passes over the Brooks range.
Expect scattered thunderstorms NE of the trough this afternoon and
evening. As the trough passes over the Arctic coast Tuesday am
freezing rain will be possible along the coast where surface
temperatures will be near freezing. Expect isolated rain showers
south of the trough.
A second short wave trough will move from the Gulf of Alaska to
the southeast interior Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring scattered to
widespread showers to the southeast interior Tuesday and Tuesday night
along with isolated PM thunderstorms.
strong high pressure north of the Arctic coast will persist
through Wednesday. This will cause stratus and fog along the Arctic
coast from Barrow east to persist into Wednesday...though it should
thin during the afternoons and evening. East winds will decrease
slowly through Wednesday.
A thermal trough from deadhorse to Eagle will remain in place
today and then move to along the alcan border Tuesday. A second
thermal trough will develop from Chicken to Galena Tuesday PM and move
to Eagle to Bettles to Noatak Wednesday PM.
models initialize well and show similar solutions through Wednesday.
red flags warnings have been issued for dry thunderstorms in the
area northeast of Chicken to Fort Yukon to Coldfoot. There were more
than 400 lightning strikes in that area Sunday night with clouds
bases above 10000 feet and and precipitation less than .10 inch.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this
afternoon in that same area. Although some of the thunderstorms
today may have rain with them...it is expected that the very dry
fuel conditions will allow more new fire starts from the
high water continues on The Porcupine river in The Fort Yukon
area. With Falling Water upstream it is expected that water at
Fort Yukon will start to fall in the next several days...though
it will take a long time for water to drain from low areas around Fort
Yukon area back into the river.
Rivers on the eastern North Slope remain high but are now falling
despite the very high freezing levels. There is the potential of
showers dropping .25-.50 inch of rain tonight across the eastern
Brooks range and North Slope. Since it is showery basin wide
rainfalls will be closer to .20 but this could add a significant
pule to those already High River by midweek.
red flag warning for akz218-akz220-akz224.
Flood Warning for akz220.
Flood Warning for akz203.
Flood Watch for akz203.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240-pkz245.
Jb may 15