Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
633 am akdt Friday Aug 28 2015
the old low aloft over the northern Chukchi Sea is moving south...
and will be over the western interior Sunday afternoon. The system
is vertically stacked. The surface low is about 990 mb 250 Michigan
north of Wainwright. It will move south to be about 150 Michigan north
of Wainwright at 4 PM this afternoon....and 50 nm NE of
Wainwright at 4 am Saturday. The surface low will likely fill
after it crosses the Arctic coast between Wainwright and Barrow
Saturday afternoon...but the low aloft will continue south as
indicated above. Surface winds on the Arctic coast from Wainwright
east will back around to the southwest as the low approaches...which
is expected to provide relief from the coastal flooding / high
surf in zones 201 and 202. Winds in zone 201 west of Icy Cape will
remain strong and onshore...but the waves are lower there...and
Point Lay does not have much in the way of coastal problems
The ridge over the southern Chukchi Sea and the northeast Bering
Sea is weakening...and a trough will extend south from the Chukchi
Sea low to the western interior by 4am Sat. High pressure over
eastern Russia will persist though...allowing the approaching low
to generate brisk northwest winds over the southern Chukchi Sea.
On Saturday and Saturday night...a cause for concern about high
surf at Shishmaref.
The pressure gradient over the interior will weaken even faster
than the low approaches...thanks to the trough mentioned above.
Precipitation over the interior has already become showery in
character. Not much additional accumulation is expected...except
near the Canadian border this morning. Showers will remain in the
forecast through the weekend though. The atmosphere is actually
pretty unstable for this time of year.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
the rain we got Tuesday through Thursday is still working its way
through our streams. Minor flooding is occurring on the chena
river and on the South Fork of the Kuskokwim River. Gauges smaller
streams and on the upper portions of the rivers have flattened out
if they are not dropping. No information on whether or not the
c.O.E. Will operate the Moose Creek dam. The chena at the Moose
Creek dam is presently forecast to crest late Friday night just
below their threshold.
coastal Flood Warning for akz202.
High surf advisory for akz201-akz207.
Winter Storm Watch for akz206.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
Djh Aug 15