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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
129 PM akst Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Synopsis...
aloft...
the long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering Sea
and northern Pacific with a ridge over western Canada and Mainland
Alaska. This pattern will slowly progress east through the weekend
with the trough expanding east over Mainland Alaska by the
weekend. This will cause the current trend of above normal
temperature and fairly dry conditions to continue through next
week...but will see a slight cooling and better chance of snow on
the weekend as the trough expands east.

A low aloft over the eastern North Slope will persist through 3pm Wednesday
PM then move west to Kotzebue by 3pm Thursday then persist into Friday.
There is an area of low to middle-level clouds and flurries
associated with this low.

A weak short wave trough from the Yukon Delta to Northway will
move to Gambell to the Yukon Delta by 3am Wednesday and then dissipate.
There are middle to high level clouds with a few flurries with this
trough.

850 mb temperatures range from -4c over the southern interior to
-14c over the eastern North Slope.

Surface...
strong high pressure north of the Arctic coast of Alaska will
retreat northeast Thursday and Friday. This will cause northeast winds along
with areas of stratus and fog to persist through Friday along the
Arctic coast of Alaska. Winds will gradually decrease through Friday
as the high weakens.

A weather front in the Gulf of Alaska will move to the northern
Gulf of Alaska by 3am Wednesday...to Bristol Bay to Northway by 3pm
Wednesday...to Denali to Old Crow by 3am Thursday...McGrath to Arctic
Village by 3pm Thursday...to Anvik to Bettles to Barter Island by 3am
Friday...to Anvik to Ambler to Barrow by 3pm Friday. Expect light snow
to spread north with this front. Chance of snow and amounts will
increase as the front moves north and west. Expect less than 1
inch of snow in the southeast interior...with 2 to 3 inches in
the western and northern interior. Will see east winds 10 to 20kt
across the interior along and after this front while the West
Coast will see NE winds increase to 15-25 knots as the front
approaches.

A second weather front will move to the northern Gulf of Alaska by
3am Thursday...and over the Alaska Range by 3pm Thursday...to Bristol Bay to
Denali to Eagle by 3am Friday...and then merge with the previous
front by 3pm Friday. Expect a chance of snow with this front until it
merges with the first front and the snow becomes more likely.

&&

Discussion...
models initialize well and show similar solutions through 3am
Thursday. After that there are significant differences with timing and
strength of a short wave moving north across the Gulf of Alaska
with the GFS being weaker and faster than the ecmf and NAM with
the low movement. There is much uncertainty starting Thursday with the
low so at this point will use GFS through 3am Thursday and then use a
mix of the ecmf/NAM after that.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz210-pkz225-pkz240-pkz245.
&&

$$

Jb Feb 16

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