Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
344 am akdt Friday Oct 9 2015
Aloft...models in good agreement with 520 dam low pressure
southwest of Kodiak prognosticated to move over Kodiak Saturday morning
then weaken as another area of low pressure moves along the coast
of Southeast Alaska. Upper level ridging will stay in place over
the Arctic then build over the eastern interior and over the Yukon
this weekend. Broad troughing will develop over the West Coast
and Bering Strait on Sunday and into early next week.
Surface...971 mb low remains vertically stacked below Gulf of
Alaska low...with a trough of low pressure extending to the
northwest into the central Bering Sea. Broad high pressure at 1030
mb extends over the chukchi and Beaufort seas.
Low pressure will remain in the Gulf through the weekend. The
remnants of tropical cyclone oho will move into the eastern Gulf
of Alaska and will pass near Yakutat by late Friday
evening...merging with the existing low in the Gulf and weakening
Saturday. A strong pressure gradient still remains over Mainland
Alaska between the Arctic high and low in the Gulf.
North Slope...due to pressure gradient strong gusty winds are
expected over the Arctic coast through the weekend. Gale
conditions will exist off the Northwest Arctic coast through
Friday. Onshore flow will generate periods of sea induced flurries
or freezing drizzle through Friday and possibly into Saturday.
West Coast...broad low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will bring
scattered rain or snow showers to the southern West Coast through
the weekend. This area will expand to more of the West Coast by
Sunday as broader troughing expands into the Bering Sea. The
strong pressure gradient between high pressure in the Arctic and
low pressure in the Gulf will keep gusty winds over the West Coast
Interior...wind advisories for gusty winds will continue under
the northeasterly flow regime through Friday...mainly focused over
summits of the eastern and central interior. A shortwave...which
is actually the remnants of Post-tropical cyclone oho...will bring
more rain and snow showers to the southeast interior for Saturday.
Again another inch or two of snow accumulation looks to occur with
this second wave. High pressure will build into the interior for
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Wind Advisory for akz219-akz220.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210--pkz215-pkz240.
Gale Warning for pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz500.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Jk Oct 15