Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
123 PM akdt Thursday Jul 2 2015


GOES infrared loop shows the upper low center is now centered just north
of the northwest Panhandle...current models progging a fairly
rapid eastward movement into northern Canada...approaching the
British Columbia/Manitoba/Alberta boundary by Friday morning.
Wraparound precipitation will continue southeastern zone
224-eastern zone 226 through this evening...becoming spotty by
Friday morning.

Farther to the west...a substantial band of showers and rain
extends from the eastern Brooks range southwest to the central and
western range and into the upper Kuskokwim valley. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 1 inch or more have been reported during the
last 36 hours in northwestern zone 224...the eastern portions of
zone 223...western zone 226...and eastern zone 225.

The heaviest rainfall reports as of noon today include the

Totatlanika RAWS 2.49 inches
upper Charley river 2.22 inches
eielson visitor center 2.14 inches
Salcha river near Richardson Highway 2.11 inches
upper Chena Dome snowtel 1.98 inches
Denali visitor center 1.85 inches
McKinley Park Airport 1.76 inches
teuchet creek snowtel 1.66 inches
Blair Lakes RAWS 1.64 inches
chena river near Two Rivers 1.55 inches
Toklat RAWS 1.55 inches

Rainfall amounts up to 2 inches have fallen in the upper chena
basin and the goodpaster river basin. GOES infrared loop suggests the
rainfall band is beginning to weaken a little...but additional
rainfall is expected through tonight with up to a half inch in
some areas.

Gages on the chena river near Two Rivers and below hunts
creek are showing the initial rise on their hydrographs. The
Salcha river is also starting to rise...but is still at a
relatively low stage of 8.0 feet. The goodpaster river
crested at about 19.5 feet earlier this morning...about 0.5 foot
below minor flood stage. The Flood Watch for that river will
be cancelled. With the heavy rainfall amounts in the Alaska Range
in western zone 226 and zone 225...many small rivers and streams
are likely rising and some may be near or above bankfull stage.
Denali park Headquarters has reported water flowing over the Road
at the Hogan creek culvert...mile 21.2 on the park Road.

Current models continue to indicate a warming and drying
trend over the interior beginning over the weekend with the
rebuilding of a strong high pressure ridge. High temperatures
from the middle 70s to middle 80s can be expected from Saturday into
the middle of next week...with the warmest temperatures in the
eastern interior.

Over the West Coast...western interior...and northwest
Alaska...isolated to scattered areas of rain or showers
over most of these areas tonight and Friday as a weakening
weather front creeps slowly eastward.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none


Fire weather...
wetting rains have occurred over much of the southern and
eastern interior. Warming and drying trend over the interior will
begin Saturday with the rebuilding upper level ridge. There will
be potential for thunderstorms in the eastern interior beginning
Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts eastward and the flow aloft over
the eastern interior trends to southeasterly...providing an
influx of moisture from the southeast to fuel convection.


see main discussion.


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...

Small stream Flood Advisory for akz223-akz224-akz225-akz226.

Dense smoke advisory for akz221-akz222.



Rf Jul 15

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations