Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
322 PM akdt Tuesday Aug 19 2014
models in decent agreement through 36 hours. Upper level ridge has
built in over nearly all of northern Alaska. Washed out cold front
over the western interior will continue to dissipate. Another
short wave trough will slowly work its way east and over the ridge
Upper level ridge extending from North Pacific northward will move
to the alcan border by Friday.
Low aloft near the North Pole will dig a trough southward and then
develop an upper low off of the trough. This low will sweep across
the Arctic and all of the models keep the upper low well north of
the Arctic coast. Significant cold air associated with the trough
but never really makes it very far south to the Arctic coast.
Another low will move around the parent low by the end of the
North Pole low and this will have even more cold air with it.
There are signs that this will make it to the Arctic coast by 240
Winds have dissipated for the most part over northern Alaska and
will continue to remain light through at least 48 hours.
Convection from the GFS appears to be following well with reality
this afternoon. Convection will open up over the entire central
interior on Wednesday though. The convection will move northeast on Thursday
and be confined to the northeastern portion of Alaska then.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Fire weather...conditions remain too wet and winds are sub
Hydrology...rivers have rises a little bit but should be on the
way down by Wednesday.
Cf Aug 14