Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
334 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Short term...(today through Thursday afternoon)
issued at 332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Surface high pressure over the region will bring another cool day
with highs only in the low to middle 70s...or about ten degrees below
normal. Increasing southerly flow later this afternoon will draw llm
back into the western Dakotas. The added llm will interact with a
weak frontal boundary and a shortwave currently over Alberta to
produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms...mainly after 3z
tonight. North central and northeastern South Dakota will have the
best potential of seeing precipitation. The upper level shortwave will exit
the region during the afternoon hours on Wednesday with precipitation chances
diminishing through Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are likely on
Thursday along with seasonal temperatures.

Long term...(thursday evening through monday)
issued at 332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

The period will start off dry with temperatures right around average. Late
Friday a surface trough of low pressure will begin to move off The
Rockies and will inch its way across the Dakotas through Monday.
Ahead of this low southerly flow will help increase moisture and
enhance instability. 700 mb temperatures remain rather warm so there could be
some capping issues. However on Saturday the GFS is signalling a
building upper ridge over the plains with 850 mb temperatures increasing to
+30c. If this pans out not only would it break any cap...highs could
maximum out over 100f. For now..due to the discrepancies in the long
range models..just nudged up forecast highs a few degrees from
superblend to place US in the 90s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1224 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

The next 24 hours should be a VFR forecast under high
pressure influence...except there will be times when smoke
obscuration /or some combination of smoke and fog/ will cause
MVFR/IFR visibility.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...South Dakota
long term...wise

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations