Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
626 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
see updated aviation discussion below.
short term...today through Friday
northerly flow with a pair of weak embedded waves will translate
into weak middle level instability. Thus...we will see an isolated
shower/Storm Pass across the County Warning Area through Thursday. There will be a
very gradually warming trend in middle level temperatures through the
period...so Friday will likely see too strong a cap for any weak
convection...while the upper flow becomes less amplified.
Meanwhile the surface pressure pattern will remain rather
amoebic...which means that surface temperatures will only see a very slow
increase in highs/lows.
Long term...Friday night through Tuesday
the upper level pattern will continue to feature a trough over the
eastern United States and a ridge over the west through the
majority of the long term period. The ridge begins to get dampened
Monday and Tuesday as shortwave energy drops over the northern
plains. Generally looking at dry conditions through the
weekend...then will see precipitation chances return as a low
pressure system tracks over the region. The European model (ecmwf) is a bit faster
with the movement of the low...and therefore more aggressive with
precipitation timing and amounts.
Temperatures will be a bit above normal during the first half of
the period...with highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s Saturday and
Sunday...then will see just a bit of a cool down back to near
normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
12z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period.