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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1225 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Update...
see updated aviation discussion below.



&&
Previous discussion...
short term...tonight through Wednesday night
a quiet night is expected across the region...with clear skies and
light southerly breezes. The winds are expected to increase
markedly Tuesday however...as the pressure gradient tightens up
ahead of the approaching surface trough. Under the warm air
advection/southeast flow regime...the sustained wind speeds
appear to remain just under advisory criteria. However...with the
strong winds and persistent dry conditions...fire weather also
becomes a concern Tuesday. Relative humidity values do not drop
off quickly due to moisture advection in the afternoon...but
certainly a very high fire danger day. If the system slows and
moisture is slow to return...conditions may be nearing red flag
criteria.

A quick moving low pressure system then moves over the region on
Wednesday. Model soundings are initially very dry...so suspect
precipitation will be limited to when the upper level forcing
moves over the region later in the morning Wednesday or Wednesday
afternoon...but left in the 20 probability of precipitation to cover any warm air
advection induced showers early Wednesday morning. General run of
the mill showers are expected...however a rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled out.



Long term...Thursday through Monday
the first half of the long term will be dominated by an upper
level ridge of high pressure. This ridge will bring dry conditions
along with above normal temperatures. The upper level flow pattern
will make a transition through the second half of the weekend as a
long wave trough pushes across the region. There is a general
agreement among models with this trough producing light precipitation
Sunday night through Monday. That said...the 12z European model (ecmwf) is
depicting a dry frontal passage. High temperatures by Monday will
likely cool off into the 50s...which is still around normal for
this time of year.



&&

Aviation...
06z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the valid
taf period. Southerly winds will become gusty for all sites on
Tuesday.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$
Short term...serr
long term...South Dakota
aviation...Parkin

Weather.Gov/Aberdeen

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