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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
258 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 257 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Overall the short term forecast looks dry and hot with temperatures
climbing into the 90s. The main challenge is an area of low
pressure moving across North Dakota Saturday with a trailing cold
front and associated shortwave activity. Models for the most part
are keeping this County Warning Area dry because of very limited moisture
availability and not much forcing aloft. However there are some
like the European model (ecmwf) that have the system a bit farther north and
therefore show increased frontal forcing creeping into central and
northern South Dakota. At this time believe most of the activity will remain
south since the European model (ecmwf) is the outlier. Decided to keep any pop
mention south of Pierre but did push it north into southern Big
Stone County as the system moves east. Any storms that do manage
to fire will have the potential to become strong to severe with
bulk shear around 40 kts..cape above 2500 j/kg and lapse rates
around 9. Many of the models have trouble resolving exactly where
any additional shortwave energy will set up so this could be a
player if energy becomes available farther north.



Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Monday and Monday night feature surface high pressure across the
northern plains which should keep conditions dry with pleasant
temperatures. Things get a bit more uncertain for the latter half of
the extended in regards to precipitation chances. Models are showing a few
episodes of shortwave energy crossing the region...but differences
still noted in timing and location. Generally accepted superblend
probability of precipitation with minimal changes since they only highlight 20/30 type
chances anyway. Some question to temperatures at the end of the period as
well. Earlier model runs...as well as the 12z GFS had showed fairly
cool air sweeping southward over the area by Friday. In contrast
though...the 12z ec is now quite a bit warmer by Friday so will have
to wait to see if other models latch onto the warmer ec trend.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1236 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf forecast period.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...wise
long term...tmt
aviation...tmt

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