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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
626 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

issued at 621 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.


Short term...(today through Thursday afternoon)
issued at 343 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Weak surface trough will move through the County Warning Area today and bring with it
breezy northwest winds to central South Dakota eastward to the James Valley.
Rather dry air will be in place over central South Dakota as well and in
fact...the southwest County Warning Area will come close to red flag criteria.
Current forecast relative humidity is for lower 20s over the southwest counties so
something to monitor for today. Will likely have high to very high
fire danger across central South Dakota this afternoon.

Short term forecast is rather quiet with pleasant temperatures and dry
conditions continuing into Wednesday. Winds appear to be a bit
lighter on Wednesday compared to today so imagine fire danger will
not be quite as high. Main highlight will be the cold front moving
through the region on Thursday which will bring much cooler
temperatures and windy conditions.

Long term...(thursday evening through monday)
issued at 343 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

During the extended forecast period...dry conditions are highly
probable from Thursday night through Sunday...while northwest flow
aloft is occurring over the region and a large upper level ridge is
in place off to the west. By the end of the period...the upper ridge
is seen by models being displaced to the east while stronger polar
jet winds slam into the West Coast and initiate what appears to be a
period of upper level flow next week looking more like zonal
flow...which should allow for the transport of one or more S/ws
eastward across the Continental U.S. And the potential for some precipitation
at some point next week.

As for temperatures...the period opens with the polar front wagging
its way down into the region as a Canadian-sourced surface high
pressure builds down across the northern plains for the end of the
week. Potentially...some of the coldest readings of the fall season
will be possible Thursday night through Friday night before return
flow has a chance to start moderating temperatures over the weekend. 85hpa
thermal forecasts fall below zero celsius /925hpa thermal forecasts down
into the low to middle single digits above zero celsius/ over northeast
South Dakota/wc Minnesota Thursday night...with said airmass expected to
stick around heading into Saturday. Found an opportunity to shave a
few degrees off superblend min temperatures for Thursday night and Friday
night...and was able to nudge forecast lows down into the 20s to
lower 30s over much of the County Warning Area those two nights. Saturday looks to
start a bit of a warm up back into the 60s and perhaps 70s for a few
spots over central South Dakota heading into next week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 621 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

VFR conditions for all terminals. Light and variable winds this
morning will switch around to the northwest and increase to 10 to
25 knots with some higher gusts.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


short term...tmt
long term...dorn

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