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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1243 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

issued at 1240 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

06z aviation discussion updated below.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 808 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Dry atmosphere across the area leads to very limited instability
across the area. Am seeing a few showers with bases near 10k fee
resulting in a few sprinkles across the western edge of County Warning Area.
Expect showers to continue to struggle as they attempt to work
north into a even more moisture starved atmosphere. Expect clouds
to gradually creep northward through the night. Model guidance was
quite a bit warmer than inherited forecast...but with dry
atmopshere...was concerned guidance seemed to warm especially in
the north where decent radiative conditions will exist for the
majority of the night. Therefore...nudged forecast lows
upwards...with the greatest changes in the central and western
South Dakota where cloud cover will continue to thicken through
the night.

Will continue see gradual increase in moisture during the day on
Tuesday as warm front lifts northward. Not a lot to key in on for
pop placement...but followed 850 hpa thetae/warm air adviection.
Not a lot of instability...mainly a few hundred j/kg or less so
dropped weather mention to showers with isolated T. Best chances
of thunder are across the south.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 808 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Chance of more widespread rain across the western County Warning Area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as shortwave lifts north over the
western half of the state. Have concentrated highest probability of precipitation across
the west. Rain chances continue to increase Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. Strong low level jet increases across the
plains leading to increasing moisture. With winds increasing aloft
and increased cloud cover...have increased lows quite a bit for
Wednesday night. This is coincident with next shortwave lifting
through the region.

The pattern then becomes less across for a few days...until
cutoff low across the Desert Southwest lifts northeast through the
area in the latter half of the weekend. In between the two
systems...models hint that the flow will be far from clean...but
hard to gauge timing. For now...have left Middle-Range probability of precipitation in the
Thursday through Sat time frame...with the highest probability of precipitation
concentrated on the two systems.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1240 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Tuesday. A low pressure system will approach from the
south possibly bringing showers starting between 18z and 21z. The
main push of precipitation will not occur until after 6z Wednesday


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.



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