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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
219 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 219 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

The short range looks to get a little more active...especially late
Sunday. For tonight hard to pin down anything good enough to support
convection. Water vapor shows weak energy aloft...and the low level jet
should focus over western South Dakota overnight. That low level jet shifts
east on Saturday...supporting an increase in moisture and
instability with ml convective available potential energy exceeding 1k j/kg by afternoon...and 850 mb
dewpoints greater than +10c. However shear remains quite marginal.
Nonetheless would not be surprised to see some afternoon/evening
diurnally driven storms. Overnight low level jet gets stronger with at least
a chance of elevated convection out a head of eastward advancing
eml. That eml will probably hold most of the storms at Bay until
late afternoon and early afternoon on Sunday. By that time a
moistening boundary layer and strong instability will likely break
any cap that may exist. However there is on caveat. Deep layer
shear is marginal a head of the cold front. So hail and gusty winds
may end up being the main threat over the eastern County Warning Area. As for will be warm and sticky both Saturday and
Sunday...but with some relief late day on Sunday in west...and
across the entire area Monday.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 219 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Cooler air will be working into the County Warning Area for Monday to start off the
extended period. Highs will be back down into the 70s with lower
dewpoints as well. Surface high then settles in for Monday night which
will likely set the stage for a fairly cool night compared to what
we have recently seen. With the surface high in place on
Tuesday...expecting dry conditions and continued pleasant
temperatures with readings in the 70s for most areas. By
midweek...will be watching the progression of a frontal boundary
which will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still some
timing differences amongst the models so basically ran with
superblend probability of precipitation for now.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1232 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Widespread smoke /fu/ continues to affect the region from
Canadian/alaskan wildfires. Visibility is generally 3sm to 4sm across
the taf sites although visibility does not seem to be affecting Katy at
the moment. The smoke is also creating a ceiling layer but it is VFR.
Expect additional actual cloud development this afternoon but ceilings
will remain VFR for the most part. VFR conditions expected
overnight but can expect smoke to once again affect the region.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


long term...tmt

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