Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
316 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014
Short term...tonight through Tuesday night
An area of high pressure over the region will bring clear skies
and light winds tonight. With the light winds and some llm...fog
will be possible later tonight in the eastern half of the County Warning Area
where the temperature/dew points spread will be the closest. However the
overall airmass is fairly dry so will not mention fog in the forecast.
An upper level low pressure system currently over Nevada will
approach the region on Monday and Monday night bring increasing
southerly winds and llm into the County Warning Area. However even with the
increasing llm...there is still significant dry air to over come
Monday night/Tuesday. Thus have delayed probability of precipitation some...especially in
the northeast County Warning Area where precipitation will hold off until Tuesday night.
Long term...Wednesday through Sunday
an upper level trough will be exiting the region on Wednesday...but
models do show weak energy lingering over the eastern County Warning Area early
in the day. Overall moisture fields appear to be on the dry side
however...so maintained a dry forecast for now. An upper level
ridge then takes hold for the remainder of the work week. Models
are showing some weak energy getting cut off from the main flow
and lingering over the plains states...but again moisture seems to
be lacking at this point. Precipitation chances return to the
forecast by the weekend...when models suggest a West Coast trough
closes off and begins to move eastward. Timing of this system is
yet to be determined however...and probability of precipitation may be a little fast. Due
to model inconsistencies just kept with the allblend guidance.
Temperatures show an above normal trend through the long term.
18z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals
VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites. High pressure will
settle over the region tonight allowing winds to go light and
variable. Winds will then return from the south by Monday morning.
No ceiling or visibility restrictions are anticipated.
Short term...South Dakota