Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1227 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
forecast looks okay so no major changes planned before 4pm
See the updated aviation discussion below.
short term...through Thursday
generally weak surface high pressure will remain the dominant
feature in the low levels with a very amplified pattern aloft.
Despite a lack of any northwest flow shortwaves...steep middle level
lapse rates will lead to some instability...though with dry low
levels we are will only see a few weak cumulus and possibly a
sprinkle...otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Models suggest a
slow warming trend through Thursday.
Long term...Thursday night through Monday
the long wave pattern with a western US ridge/eastern US trough
finally weakens/deamplifies from Thursday night through Monday.
Thus...the dry weather continues through at least Saturday night
across the County Warning Area with mostly clear skies and light winds. The GFS
and ec both show weak short wave energy coming over the western
ridge and into the region in the Sunday through Monday morning
period. Thus...have in slight chances of showers/storms for
mainly across the eastern County Warning Area for Sunday into Monday morning.
Highs during the period will be mostly in the 80s with lows in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s across the County Warning Area.
18z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period as high
pressure remains overhead. Afternoon cumulus will dissipate tonight and
winds will remain light.