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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
627 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

issued at 625 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

See updated aviation discussion below.


Short term...(today through Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 333 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

A shortwave...currently over Colorado will track across the County Warning Area this
afternoon. Most cams depict this shortwave lifting north-northeast
across the western half of the County Warning Area between 18-0z...thus have
increased probability of precipitation significantly over the previous forecast. The European model (ecmwf)
also shows this shortwave impacting the County Warning Area...but is over the
eastern half of the County Warning Area. Thus will mention showers across most of
the County Warning Area today. This shortwave should be located northeast of the County Warning Area
by 6z tonight with dry conditions prevailing through the rest of the
short term.

A frontal boundary draped east/west across the region Monday and
Tuesday will create a challenging temperature forecast. With each
model showing something a little different...will run with a
consensus among models for temperatures Monday through Tuesday.

Long term...(tuesday evening through saturday)
issued at 333 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

A low pressure system will push over the Western Plains Tuesday
night...with showers ahead of it possibly reaching the far western
County Warning Area. The low then intensifies and tracks across the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Thursday...with a decent chance of precipitation
expected. High pressure settles in over the area behind the exiting
system and looks to be dominant through early Saturday...when a weak
trough tracks across the northern plains. For now...this trough is
depicted to move through dry.

Temperatures will start off slightly above normal on
Wednesday...with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s. Cooler air
associated with the precipitation will hit on Thursday...with highs
mainly in the 60s. High temperatures return to the middle 60s to middle
70s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to lower
50s throughout the extended period.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 625 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Scattered showers will track northward over mainly the central
and eastern County Warning Area into this afternoon.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...South Dakota
long term...Parkin

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