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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
512 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

Short term...(today through Sunday afternoon)
issued at 319 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

High pressure is the dominate feature across the northern plains
this morning. Temperatures across the northeast County Warning Area have dropped
into the teens below zero...with the coldest readings in the James
River Valley. Winds however have dropped to 5 miles per hour or less so wind
chill is not a real factor.

Today winds will very gradually return from the south...and
slightly warmer temperatures are expected. A very weak upper
level trough and associated surface reflection will slide across
the region Saturday. Models suggest limited moisture and no
associated precipitation with this feature. Increased cloud cover is
likely however. Temperatures should be back into the 20s and 30s
by Saturday...with the warmest temperatures over the snow free areas of
the southwest County Warning Area.

Another upper level trough is forecast to track across the
northern plains Sunday. But again moisture appears to be the short term forecast remains dry.

Long term...(sunday evening through thursday)
issued at 319 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

The period starts off with a split flowish looking long wave
pattern over the Continental U.S....featuring a trough over the Great
Lakes...and near cutoff low just off California...and more energy
diving south along the West Coast. That south diving energy along
the West Coast begins to kick out that cutoff by early to middle
week. Meanwhile more energy drops down from the northern stream
and we end up with a middle week central Continental U.S. Trough with only partial
phasing of southern and northern stream energy. This lack of phasing
does seem to support the vast majority of precipitation staying south of
the region...except for perhaps the Tuesday through Wednesday
time frame where some warm air advection light snow looks possible. Otherwise the
forecast should be mainly dry. If a little more phasing of the
energy occurs...then we could see a bigger precipitation event.
Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride...starting out near
normal early...then turning colder again by midweek...only to warm
again by weeks end.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 510 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...serr

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