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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1025 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

the current forecast looks good overall. No changes planned at
this time.

Previous discussion...
short through Saturday
some fog formed early thanks to recent rain...however a
west/southwest wind is inhibiting what formed will
likely dissipate rapidly with daytime heating. Good mixing
conditions will continue through Friday with one departing storm
system and a second that will move north of the County Warning Area. Thus...will
be focused on fire weather. Mixed layer dewpoints will remain in
the 30s...though winds will generally be light. There is a little
bit stronger middle level flow Friday along the ND/South Dakota border...with
mixed down winds in the teens. High pressure moves overhead temperatures will be a tad closer to climatology with
lighter winds.

Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday
upper level ridging will dominate over the plains Saturday night
and Sunday. The flow then becomes southwesterly ahead of an
approaching trough. This trough will reach the Western Plains
Monday evening...then slowly pushes across the rest of the plains
region through the end of the period.

Surface high pressure over the area Saturday night will quickly get
pushed eastward as a trough digs down the Lee of The Rockies. The
front associated with this system will track across the County Warning Area Sunday
night into early Monday...with Post frontal precipitation possible
Monday and Monday night. High pressure will dominate through the
rest of the period...keeping conditions dry.

Will see one more day of above normal temperatures on
Sunday...with highs mainly in the 60s. Cooler air then moves
in...with highs Monday through Wednesday back around normal


12z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to fog will occur across the far
southeastern part of the County Warning Area through about 15z...affecting Katy.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

Update...South Dakota
short term...Connelly
long term...Parkin


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