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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
821 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

issued at 818 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Not planning any major updates this evening. Did add some fog to
the Sisseton hills area given last few nights experience as well
as some support from sref aviation guidance. Convection West
River is slowly decaying on track with loss of diabatic heating.
Low level jet and approaching wave currently over Colorado may support scattered
convection late tonight and early on Friday. Updates already issued.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 316 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Good agreement with the models through the short term. For tonight
and upper level low pressure trough currently over
Colorado will slowly lift northeast and over the region. With a low level jet
developing along with the lift from this trough...expect some
showers and storms to develop this evening southwest of the region.
These will lift northeast through the night and Friday. The hi-res
models all indicate some shower/storm development into Friday with
this trough. The latest radars to our far southwest also showing
some echoes late this afternoon.

Friday should be slightly cooler with more cloud cover with the
upper trough along with some rainfall. This trough will move north
with the models showing another weak short wave lifting northeast
across the region Saturday and Saturday night. This lift combined
again with a low level jet will bring better chances of showers and storms to
the region for Saturday and Saturday night. Saturday will also have
more cloud cover with highs in the 80s/lower 90s. As the main/large
upper level low pressure trough over the western US kicks out closer
to our region Saturday night...a cold front may enter the western
County Warning Area late Saturday night and may kick off more storms. A few severe
storms will also remain possible for Friday and Saturday. The high
humidity along with warm overnight lows will also remain through
Saturday night.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 316 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

The upper level trough plaguing the short term period tracks
northeast into Canada...and then closes off over Manitoba and very
slowly tracks into the Hudson Bay region. An associated cold front
will be exiting the region Monday...with cooler and drier air
settling in. A second frontal boundary is expected to move across
the region somewhere in the Tuesday time frame. Chance to slight
chance probability of precipitation reside along this boundary Tuesday...but otherwise the
long term forecast remains mostly dry. Generally speaking cooler
temperatures are expected throughout the period...but 850 mb
temperatures reach their Low Point Wednesday morning...dropping into
the single digits and teens celsius. A progressive zonal flow takes
over for the remainder of the long term.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 701 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Patchy fog is again possible tonight...mainly at kabr/Katy. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected for the taf period.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

short term...mohr
long term...serr

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