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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
526 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(today through Sunday afternoon)
issued at 336 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

A broad area of high pressure currently over the region will be the
main weather feature through the first half of the weekend. This
high pressure will bring clear skies and light winds through at
least Saturday morning. Temperatures today and tonight will remain
below normal with highs in the 20s...and lows returning to the
single digits above zero Saturday morning.

The upper level trough of low pressure currently over the
southwestern US...will begin approaching the region on Saturday.
This system will bring warmer temperatures into the region...along
with a slight chance for light snow Saturday evening through Sunday.
Locations in south central and western South Dakota will have the
best potential of seeing light snow.

Long term...(sunday evening through thursday)
issued at 336 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Overall trends in the extended remain unchanged from previous
forecast concerning an upper/cut off low ejecting into the
plains...with both isentropic ascent and a weak trowal generating
light/moderate precipitation over the County Warning Area. Thermal profiles are
cold enough to support just snow. The GFS remains the more prolific
of the snow producing models...with the European model (ecmwf) total snowfall on a
much smaller scale. Confidence is building that the region will see
accumulating snow bumped probability of precipitation into the likely category
for much of Monday.

The latter half of the extended looks dry...with weak warm advection
and 850mb temperatures nearing +6c by the end of the forecast. Will
leave superblend temperatures through the extended although we can
assume these readings will be too warm if the area does get a few
inches snow.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 524 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

VFR conditions for all taf sites...outside of some initial fog
for kmbg.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...South Dakota
long term...Connelly

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