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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
750 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

issued at 728 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 349 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

A few thundershowers have developed along the Dakotas border with Montana
this afternoon along surface boundary. As the boundary continues moving
east into the evening hours...expect some of this activity to get
into the far northwest County Warning Area. Then as the overnight progresses a 30 to
35 knot low level jet may allow for additional development further
east but there is not much upper level support. Expecting some loss
of areal coverage after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Then for Wednesday...boundary moves a bit further east and stretches
from central South Dakota up to just west of abr. Models only generating less
than 1000 j/kg MLCAPE and 25 to 30 knots of deep layer shear so not
expecting much in the way of strong to severe storms.
Although...there will probably be a few isolated/widely scattered storms
over the area by middle to late afternoon.

Thursday and Thursday night remain dry as 850 mb temperatures begin to
rise. Highs will rebound back into the 80s under south to southeast

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 349 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

The models show good agreement in the long term with the upper level
flow over our region. The period begins with a large upper level low
pressure trough across the western US with a large high pressure
area over the southeast US. Short wave energy from the western
trough will slowly lift northeast and over the top of the ridge
through the weekend to the north of our area and then move southeast
through early in the week. The upper level high pressure area over
the southeast US retrogrades westward into early in the week and
will be over the southern US. All of the models show the low level
thermal profile warming up into the weekend with above normal
temperatures expected. With plenty of sunshine in this
pattern...expect highs mainly in the middle 80s to the lower 90s
through the period. Will probably have some middle 90s occur in the
southwest County Warning Area this weekend. Depending on the progression of the low
pressure trough moving over the ridge and middle level capping...have
in several mainly slight chances of showers/storms mainly across the
eastern County Warning Area.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 728 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

VFR to continue through the taf valid period on southerly winds.
At this point...seems the terminal that stands the best chance of
seeing a shower or thunderstorm in the next 6 hours is the kmbg
terminal. However...short term guidance would suggest convective
activity out over northwestern sodak will gradually shift northeastward
into North Dakota this evening. Will continue to monitor and
introduce thunder at kmbg if need be.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


short term...tmt
long term...mohr

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