Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
301 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 255 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

The primary forecast challenge is timing the end of cloud
cover...and upcoming maximum/min temperatures this week. area of low pressure lifting northeastward across the northern
plains is generating some isolated to scattered showers over this
County Warning Area. Under a cloudy sky and light southerly winds...temperatures
range from the middle 50s across central South Dakota to the lower 60s
over west central Minnesota.

The precipitation should be coming to an end this evening...once the
positive vorticity advection associated with this area of low pressure shifts off into nodak
and Minnesota. Satellite imagery and the latest available short-term
model guidance suggests much of tonight should be cloudy...with
potentially some carry over into the daytime on Monday. Cloudiness
tonight would help to hold temperatures at Bay...and keep them from
falling much past the low to middle 40s. Depending on how much coverage
of cloudiness there is and for how long on Monday could put a Dent
in forecast high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
Basically...the short term forecast is dry while the upper level
flow pattern becomes a split flow pattern over the western
Continental U.S....and the confluence of northern/southern jet streams is
located over this region. Temperatures should be warmer Monday
than they are today...and progressively even warmer on
Tuesday...per 850hpa/925hpa thermal forecasts.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 255 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Main issue in the extended period will be the middle week storm
system which looks to affect the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. There are still differences amongst the models in regards to
the low track...with the Gem/ec solutions further north than the
wetter GFS track. This low will drag a cold front across the region
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning...with varying degrees of
quantitative precipitation forecast coverage along the front shown in the models. Generally went
with superblend probability of precipitation at this point which highlight fairly high
chances over the eastern County Warning Area during this time period.

The rest of the extended period looks dry as high pressure moves in
behind the middle week low. A brief surge of cool air behind this
system...but middle level heights rise again as a warming trend looks
more likely by next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1239 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

System will bring scattered showers to portions of central and eastern
South Dakota through early evening so have included a vcsh/rain mention for
kpir/kabr and kmbg. Overall...conditions are expected to remain
VFR with the exception of kmbg which will see ceilings around 3000 feet
or slightly lower through this evening.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...dorn
long term...tmt

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations