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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
421 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Short term...(today through Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 421 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Convection continues to to advect east ahead of a weak shortwave
embedded in a tropical plume that has rounded the western Continental U.S.
Ridge...with an elevated mixed layer also developing across the County Warning Area.
700mb temperatures will continue to increase to between +10 to +15c
through the day. Elevated convection is depicted within a majority
of high res guidance moving out of Montana later this am as well.

But most of the focus is on this evening. Given 700mb temperatures
and forecasts being a little slower bringing the surface front through
the County Warning Area...reduced probability of precipitation for the today period. Best jet dynamics are
closer to the evening hours...with cams developing convection
between 00 and 06z. All cams generate convection ahead of the
shortwave trough...along and on the cool side of of the surface
front...where the cap is weaker. MLCAPE values could top 5000 j/kg
in this regime...though shear is also mainly limited to the cool
side of the front. This makes discerning the storm environment Muddy
at best. Cams assist in this though...depicting one or more
complexes developing and pushing across the County Warning Area...which makes since
given high LCLs and dcape values around 2000j/kg. Thus...will
maintain severe/heavy rain wording.

With northwest flow...NAM profiles are weakly unstable up to 700mb.
Thus...convective showers are possible Monday. High pressure
overhead for Tuesday will lead to dry conditions. Temperatures will
be cooler than normal Monday and Tuesday as well.

Long term...(tuesday evening through saturday)
issued at 421 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

A shortwave will approach from the west/southwest on Wednesday
bringing chances for showers and thunerstorms. With a northern
plains low moving out of Montana on Thursday night/Friday the potential for
storms ahead of and with this system will continue as a decent
southerly moisture feed and weak low level jet set up. Shortwave activity and
an upper low will move over the region late Sat keeping probability of precipitation in the
forecast. Due to uncertainty of shortwave energy stuck with
superblend probability of precipitation.

Temperatures will feature an upward trend with highs in the 70s on
Wednesday climbing into the middle to upper 80s by Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1224 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected early this morning
otherwise conditions through the early morning hours and most of
Sunday will be VFR. More storms are expected to develop late Sunday
afternoon and evening...potentially affecting all taf sites.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...Connelly
long term...wise

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