Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
838 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
forecast should work out OK so no major changes planned this
short term...tonight through Thursday night
A weak trough will pass move through the region tonight. This
should have little effect except on wind direction. Building upper
level ridging will dominate the short term with increasing temperatures
through the period. A stronger low pressure trough will move off
The Rockies Thursday night. Ahead of the trough a 40 knots low level jet will set up
possibly kicking off some storms early Friday morning across the
eastern County Warning Area.
Long term...Friday through Tuesday
There is reasonable agreement among models with the evolution of
the upper level flow pattern across the Continental U.S. Through the period.
There are minor issues with the intensity of a short wave crossing the
region Friday night/Saturday which leads to low forecaster
confidence for probability of precipitation. Friday is starting to look dry even with
frontal boundary moving through the region. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) are
showing temperatures at 700 mb of +12c...which should cap off convection.
Dry conditions are expected beyond Saturday with seasonal
temperatures in the 70s for early next week.
00z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals
VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the valid taf
long term...South Dakota