Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1209 PM MDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
18z taf cycle
moisture flowing northward combined with an upper level system
approaching from the west will initiate late afternoon/early evening isolated to
scattered sh and ts favoring western areas initially. This moisture
plume will gradually edge eastward during the overnight hours and
impact central terminal sites. High confidence of a band of rain
impacting kgup/kfmn after 00z. MVFR ceilings will be possible with
this multi hour band of precipitation. As this band moves eastward
kaeg/kabq/ksaf could be impacted and the impacts could start
between 08z to 10z. Using vcsh as a placeholder for now to
indicate precipitation potential. Later shifts may add some
prevailing rain and lower ceilings. Expect some breezy conditions
across the eastern plains due to Lee side troughing. Gusts between
25 to 30kt will be possible there.
Previous discussion...300 am MDT Thursday Aug 21 2014...
storm over Southern California to weaken and lift NE tonight and Friday.
It will be able to pull moisture north into nm...including some
high level moisture from Tropical Storm Lowell. Thus Friday
appears to be our most active day through the forecast period.
Drier air to follow for the weekend. Models then diverge on what
happens next week. GFS much more progressive with the next short
wave trough. European is much slower and deeper with a closed
low to our northwest.
today will be another relatively down day convection wise as we
await the storm over Southern California to advance east. Isolated probability of precipitation
for the valleys and plains and scattered probability of precipitation for the mountains.
Temperatures will also be similar to Wednesday...below normal in
the west and above normal in the east.
As the closed low opens up and moves into Arizona tonight we will begin
to notice an increase in showers and thunderstorms...especially
in the west. Widespread coverage is forecast for Friday with
scattered to numerous showers and storms. By Friday evening the
focus will shift to the east. Temperatures will cool a few degrees
Friday and be mostly below normal...except near normal on the
The moisture surge will be short lived as dry air will follow the
trough passage. This will result in noticeably less convection for
the weekend...although Sunday afternoon will become a bit more
active over the west as return flow moisture starts to creep north
into western nm.
Models diverge big time for next week. While both models develop a
fairly deep trough over the northwest U.S. The path of this trough
is way different between the GFS and European. GFS is much more
progressive as it swings the trough through nm Tuesday. But the
European closes the trough off and drops it south into California before
lifting it northeast. Trough passage on the European is not until
Thursday. Thus the European is much wetter for a longer period of
time...allowing monsoonal moisture to impact nm through the first
half of next week. For now will go with a blend of the models and
adjust accordingly over the next several model runs. Chj
another relatively quiet day is in store. Middle level dry air that
is in place now will slowly be replaced late this afternoon and
overnight by moist air as the upper level low/trough nears and
draws up moisture from the south. This monsoonal surge still looks
to be relatively short-lived...as drier air will move in over the
Again...daytime hours today will be quiet. Spotty storms will be
possible across the western and northern mountains...and perhaps even
an isolated storm across the eastern plains. But storm coverage
and wetting rain footprints will be minimal. Any storms that do
develop will move toward the east-northeast around 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal across the
west...and a few degrees above normal across the east. Humidities
will trend downward a few percent compared to yesterday.
The best moisture will arrive tonight. NAM/GFS...and to a lesser
extent the European model (ecmwf)...are suggesting that showers...with a few
embedded thunderstorms...will develop across western nm after
sunset and shift into the Rio Grande Valley toward sunrise Friday.
This activity may impact the amount of convection that develops
Friday afternoon. Nonetheless...scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the west early in the
afternoon...but by late aftn/evening...the focus for storms should be
across the east. The cloud cover and precipitation will help trend
temperatures downward...up to 10 degrees...compared to todays readings.
In fact...most areas will be below normal. The exception will be
the far east...where Lee troughing will boost wind speeds into the
breezy...and perhaps locally windy category...keeping temperatures just
above normal. Humidities will also get a big boost upward
By Saturday...the trough will have exited to the east...and
westerly flow will usher in much drier air into nm. Storm chances
will be minimal...and temperatures will rise a few degrees... though
still just below normal for most locales. Not much change for
Sunday...though there could be just a bit more storms over the
After the weekend...large model discrepancies return. Both the
GFS and European model (ecmwf) show another Pacific trough developing over the northwest
Continental U.S.. however...the GFS is once again far more progressive with
the trough...scooting it across the central rockies as early as
Tuesday....while the European model (ecmwf) closes it off over cali...and doesnt
move it eastward over the central rockies until Thursday. As a
result...the GFS remains much drier than the European model (ecmwf) early next
week. The slower progression on the ec allows monsoonal moisture
to be drawn up once again over nm. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding next week.
No widespread ventilation issues are foreseen for the next several
days. Haines values of 5 may return today across the north central
parts of the state...and perhaps again on Sunday. 34