Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1052 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions will remain across the western tier. Central areas
will see improving ceilings between 18z to 21z although there is a chance
low clouds hang in longer than expected. Low ceilings will likely
return with some visible restrictions tonight across central
locations. Hedged the forecast at aeg/abq with scattered LIFR decks but
pretty confident about saf. Eastern terminal sites will remain in
some sort of categorical hazard through the next 24 hours. IFR/LIFR
conditions are likely tonight and will be slow to improve today.
Previous discussion...335 am MST Sat Nov 28 2015...
Cold and wintry conditions from the Central Mountain chain over the
eastern plains will gradually improve today as the plume of moisture
is shoved eastward by stronger westerly winds aloft associated with
an upper low circulation over the Great Basin and central rockies. A
cold front will move from northwest to southeast over New Mexico
Sunday and Sunday night with some snow showers over northern New
Mexico. High temperatures will remain below seasonal averages Monday
and Tuesday...warming to near average or above by late next week.
Another storm system could develop by next weekend.
Will allow remaining winter highlights to expire as scheduled early
this morning. Although radar echoes have diminished and the
potential for wintry precipitation is forecast to decrease as well
today...Road conditions over the plains may remain hazardous with
patchy fog this morning. Highs today to remain below average but
look to at least moderate above freezing in the plains.
Some of the northern high terrain may see some snow showers through
Sunday/Sunday night as the Great Basin/central rockies upper low
wobbles around before it ejects Sunday night/Monday into the
Midwest. A cold front will push from northwest to southeast over the
state Sunday/Sunday night...leading to some occasionally gusty winds
Sunday into Monday. The front will be mostly dry but some
precipitation is possible for the northeast and previously mentioned
northern mts. The front will put the kabosh on much of a warmup for
Monday. Drier dew points in the front/S wake will contribute to
colder overnight lows Monday and Tuesday as well. The bonus
circulation west of central California early this morning looks to become
integrated with the larger upper low circulation Sunday...but
doesn/T appear to have much of an additional effect except it could
pull the low track a bit farther south.
Most of the upcoming week now appears dry and warmer. Highs finally
reach average or above late in the work week. Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS in
agreement another upper low/cold front combo could develop for next
Well below normal temperatures across the east and near to just below
normal temperatures across western and central areas will prevail today.
Precipitation has moved out of the area early this morning but not
out of the question that a stray shower could develop this
afternoon...though a dry slot will begin pushing into the area from the
The pesky storm system that has been hovering over the Great Basin
looks to finally inch eastward on Sunday with the base of the
low/trough crossing over nm Sunday night. This looks like it will
increase west/SW winds at mountain top level but may also spark
some additional showers across NC and NE nm. Additional
accumulations should be minimal.
Once the trough/low passes to the east...west to northwest winds
will be the main story for Monday. Favored northwest flow areas should be
quite breezy...if not windy...on Monday afternoon...especially around
Clines Corners and across the sangre Delaware cristo mountains
additionally...the dry slot will also have finally push eastward
across all of nm on Monday...and dewpoints will correspondingly
tumble. Relative humidities across a few western locales may drop
near 15 percent Monday afternoon...but where winds will be the
strongest...humidities are expected to stay above 25 percent.
Winds will relax on Tuesday...though it will remain dry. Wednesday
looks similar...though a weak disturbance may cross the state. By
Thursday...upper level ridging will develop. The ridge looks to
shift eastward late in the week as both models are depicting
another closed low moving toward nm. There are differences in the
position of the low which will make all the difference in where
precipitation may form. Stay tuned as next weekend looks to be unsettled.
Poor ventilation will persist today across much of central and
eastern nm...with areas of fair to good ventilation across the
west. Ventilation will improve on Sunday across central and western
areas as the dry slot punches into the west and winds increase. Poor
mixing will inhibit vent rates from reaching their full potential on
Monday. Poor to fair rates will be the rule. Ventilation on Tuesday
through Friday looks to be poor with low mixing heights and weak