Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1017 PM MDT sun Aug 2 2015
updated pop field to reflect current and anticipated coverage
trends. Radar shows main batch across northwest/wc areas as well as
across the ec/southeast plains. Ec/southeast plains should dwindle down during
the next few hours. Western batch is being synoptically driven and
should favor the northern tier rest of tonight. Quite see some
light to occasionally moderate rain impact the abq metropolitan area as
it moves eastward late evening/early morning. But not expecting too
much. The flash flood threat is also winding down so decided to
cancel the watch. Some minor flooding could be possible later
tonight across the NC mountains due to localized moist antecedent
conditions. But probably not enough risk to continue the watch.
Rio Arriba County appears to be the most saturated based on areal
soil moisture maps so that would be the focus for minor flooding.
Previous discussion...543 PM MDT sun Aug 2 2015...
00z taf cycle
upper level energy moving in from the west combined with a very moist
and moderately unstable air mass will maintain a favorable
environment for active shra/tsra. Highest confidence in direct
impacts at kfmn and ktcc in near term. Elsewhere...will maintain
vc mention as placeholders until confidence increases per short-
term radar/lightning trends. Kfmn...kgup...ksaf...and klvs most likely
to experience multiple waves of impacts before 06z. Storm motions
generally east or NE at 10-15 kts. Expect brief periods of MVFR/IFR
ceilings and occasional mountain obscurations from any passing strong thunderstorms and rain.
Growing confidence that areas of northern nm will see expansion of
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain after 03z extending through 12z Monday. Kj
Previous discussion...340 PM MDT sun Aug 2 2015...
active thunderstorm period expected tonight through early Monday
before drier and more stable air advances west to east beginning
Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms through early Monday morning will
be capable of producing locally very heavy rainfall once again
with a heightened threat for flash flooding particularly in
locations that have been hard hit the past few days. Monday
afternoon will mark the transition to fewer storms...especially
west. High confidence in a predominately dry and warm to hot
weather pattern Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated afternoon and
evening storm possible over the mountains and northeast.
rather dynamic upper-air pattern in place for early August.
Compact closed upper low just west of The Four Corners slowly
lifting northward and gradually filling within a larger-scale
region of deformation/stretching west of the upper ridge extending
from SW Wyoming to NE New Mexico. The main upper high center
appears to be over or just south of El Paso. Pronounced dry slot
slowly progressing eastward...nearing the Arizona/nm line at this hour.
This dry slot was coincident with a respectiable 300mb 30-40kt
speed maximum analyzed over Arizona this morning...and providing a
favorable environment for on-going convection from the lower Rio
Grande Valley to NC/NE areas.
Models similar showing the compact low/deformation band gradually
translating north-northeast tonight. As result...middle to upper level
flow to gradually veer in response and allow the drier air to make
some eastward progress into western areas later this
evening...mainly wc/SW zones. At the same time...models are
quite bullish on expanding rain showers/thunderstorms and rain and locally heavy quantitative precipitation forecast near
and ahead of the sluggish deformation band tonight. Areas from
Dulce to Chama south toward the jemez...then eastward across the
upper Rio Grande Valley to the sangre Delaware cristos and adjacent east
slopes look to be especially active late tonight possibly well
into the pre-dawn hours Monday.
Focus by daybreak Monday looks to be from the east slopes of the
sangres to the NE quarter and a later shift may need to extend the
watch. Otherwise...Monday will be a transition day as drier/more
stable air overspreads the area from west to east. 500mb heights
grradually rising through Monday night. Will continue to focus the
highest probability of precipitation near/east of the Central Mountain chain and like
trend of going above machine numbers for the SW/SC mountains and
even include isolated convection near The Divide.
Tuesday/Wednesday will be the driest/least active stretch of days that we
have seen in several weeks if not the entire season. 596 dam upper
high squarely over the area by Wednesday...centered generally over
central or southwest New Mexico. Northwesterly steering flow would favor
the NE...and hard to completely rule out isolated mountain storms but
it looks to shut down in a big way by mid-week. Previous shift
captured widening diurnal temperature swings...and could see min temperatures in
the middle/upper 30s return for the Moreno Valley. More active late
week as the upper high shifts slowly back toward the east. Kj
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue throughout the remainder of the day across western and
central New Mexico. The upper high is currently situated over the
southern half of the state which is helping usher in abundant
moisture northward. Storm motion will be generally west to
east...although slow and erratic at times. Expect gusty to erratic
surface winds with heavy rain footprints as storms continue into the
evening as multiple outflow boundaries collide. Expect heavy rains
to occur over previously saturated ground which will increase flash
Currently...water vapor imagery shows a decent dry slot filtering
into central Arizona toward New Mexico. This process will give way
to a warmer...drier trend that will commence Monday as the upper
level high shifts westward ushering in drier air from the Pacific.
Storm activity will continue across high terrain areas of northern
and western New Mexico but will be less active each day. Tuesday
through Thursday will see temperatures increasing above normal
following 5 and 6 Haines values across northern and central areas.
Minimum relative humidity values will decrease into the middle to upper teens
midweek...with a brief period of values between 10 and 15 percent
across the northern half of the state...but will trend upward toward
the weekend. Overnight recoveries will remain fair to good areawide.
Friday into the weekend...the upper high will begin shifting
eastward allowing monsoonal moisture to return in the west
increasing wetting rain chances north and west.
Expect poor vent rates today in the north...with area wide
improvement Monday through Thursday. 32