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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
330 am MDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Synopsis...
biggest weather issue through this week will likely be strong
winds and areas of critical fire weather conditions and probably
some blowing dust to some degree Wednesday and even more so on
Thursday. Until then just a few high based showers and storms mostly
across and a bit east of the higher terrain...the vast majority
likely to produce nothing more than very brief light showers or
sprinkles...if even that. Temperatures to remain above normal
through at least Thursday.

&&

Discussion...
another above normal temperature day today with light to moderate winds
the rule as back door front fades away across the west half of the
state. As a weak disturbance aloft approaches from the west enough
instability will exist allow for some afternoon and evening
buildups and isolated high based showers and storms...primarily
over and perhaps a bit east of the higher terrain. Again rain
will be scarce with associated gusty winds the main concern. The
closed low off the Baja California California coast will pass well S of nm Monday night
and Tuesday...but the atmosphere will remain just unstable enough to
generate isolated showers and storms...again mostly confined to
the higher terrain mainly east of the Continental Divide midday
through afternoon Tuesday.

Ridge to break down by Wednesday with westerly flow increasing through
Thursday. Any remaining moisture and instability combination will be
too feeble to allow any precipitation...and few if any buildups...to
break out. Temperatures remain well above the norm. Main focus will be
on fire weather Wednesday and Thursday with fairly small critical fire weather
conditions coverage Wednesday...but much larger area Thursday. Details in
fire weather discussion. A short wave trough will pass north of the state
Friday and drop a cold front S and west across a good portion if not
all of the state. European model (ecmwf) now only slightly faster than GFS with
frontal progression. Cooler for most areas Friday with very slim
shower and storm chances near to just east of portions of Central
Mountain chain Friday night and Sat afternoon. Sunday will likely be dry and
warmer.

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&&

Fire weather...
..critical fire weather threat increasing middle to late week...

A more Spring like pattern developing this week will lead to an
increasing critical fire weather threat. The back door frontal
boundary overnight has surged west to the Continental Divide...
however humidity increases were only modest. Min humidities will
trend up only slighly today with more cloud cover and a few dry
showers. Wetting precipitation will be hard to find and relegated to High
Mountain peaks. Gusty and erratic winds are likely beneath any virga.
Despite the cold front temperatures will remain 10 to 15f above normal.

The pattern will change starting Tuesday as zonal flow increases
over the Desert Southwest and a large dry intrusion shifts east.
Any remnant moisture will be squeezed out near the high terrain
in the form of virga showers with enhanced gusty winds. Westerly
winds will be strongest out west with min relative humidity values near 10 percent
and Haines near 5 and 6. Some spotty near critical conditions are
possible out west and near Vegas. Ridgetop winds will increase
Tuesday night with East Slope mountain wave activity expected.

Relative humidity recoveries leading into Wednesday will be fair in the lower
elevations. Humidities will fall quickly on Wednesday with above
normal temperatures...5 and 6 Haines...and widespread windy conditions.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely in the area from Clines to
Vegas east over The Highlands and NE plains. The most significant
fire weather conditions thus far this season will come Thursday as poor
recoveries Wednesday night and warm low temperatures lead into widespread
strong winds with single digit relative humidity. A weak frontal boundary flirting
with the NE plains may limit potential there.

Extended guidance shows some temporary relief with a cool down
Friday before a potential extended period of very dry and windy
southwest flow impacts the state through the weekend and early
next week.

Guyer

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions currently in place across northern and central
New Mexico...and should persist through next 24 hours...however
there will be some wind impacts. Easterly gap/canyon wind developed
at ksaf and kabq earlier this evening as a front pushed into the
Rio Grande Valley...but gusts are beginning to gradually decrease.
An aviation weather warning was issued at kabq for gusts to 35 knots
earlier...but gusts should now stay just below this 35 knots
threshold going into the early morning hours. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will intiate over the mountains and
higher terrain of New Mexico Monday afternoon...and these will be
capable of producing localized gusty winds through Monday evening.
Rainfall will largely be evaporating before reaching the
ground...thus no significant lowering to ceilings or visibility is
anticipated with monday's showers/storms.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 77 38 77 39 / 5 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 72 30 71 30 / 5 5 5 0
Cuba............................ 72 35 72 35 / 5 5 5 0
Gallup.......................... 74 31 74 32 / 5 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 70 33 70 35 / 10 10 0 0
Grants.......................... 73 32 74 33 / 10 5 0 0
Quemado......................... 70 37 70 36 / 10 5 0 0
Glenwood........................ 79 45 77 45 / 10 10 0 0
Chama........................... 67 30 66 30 / 10 10 5 0
Los Alamos...................... 68 42 70 42 / 10 10 5 0
Pecos........................... 69 40 71 41 / 10 5 10 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 69 31 69 31 / 10 10 10 0
Red River....................... 59 30 60 31 / 20 20 10 5
Angel Fire...................... 63 29 64 30 / 20 10 10 5
Taos............................ 70 33 70 33 / 10 5 5 0
Mora............................ 68 37 70 38 / 10 10 10 5
Espanola........................ 75 42 76 42 / 5 5 5 0
Santa Fe........................ 71 41 71 42 / 10 5 5 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 74 39 75 39 / 5 5 5 0
Albuquerque foothills........... 75 46 76 46 / 5 5 0 0
Albuquerque heights............. 78 48 79 48 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque valley.............. 80 46 81 45 / 5 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 45 81 45 / 5 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 80 44 81 45 / 5 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 78 46 79 47 / 5 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 80 47 82 48 / 5 5 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 43 73 43 / 10 5 5 0
Tijeras......................... 75 43 75 43 / 10 5 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 37 76 38 / 10 10 5 5
Clines Corners.................. 71 40 73 42 / 10 10 5 5
Gran Quivira.................... 72 43 73 43 / 10 10 5 0
Carrizozo....................... 75 46 76 46 / 10 5 5 0
Ruidoso......................... 71 44 71 43 / 10 10 10 5
Capulin......................... 71 39 74 41 / 10 10 5 5
Raton........................... 76 36 77 36 / 10 5 5 5
Springer........................ 74 37 76 37 / 10 5 5 5
Las Vegas....................... 72 39 75 39 / 10 10 5 5
Clayton......................... 78 46 82 49 / 5 0 5 5
Roy............................. 74 41 79 43 / 5 0 5 5
Conchas......................... 79 48 83 48 / 5 0 5 5
Santa Rosa...................... 77 45 81 47 / 5 0 0 5
Tucumcari....................... 82 47 85 48 / 5 0 5 5
Clovis.......................... 78 47 82 48 / 5 0 10 5
Portales........................ 77 47 82 47 / 5 0 10 5
Fort Sumner..................... 77 48 83 49 / 5 0 5 5
Roswell......................... 80 48 86 49 / 5 5 10 5
Picacho......................... 74 48 79 49 / 10 5 10 5
Elk............................. 70 47 74 47 / 10 10 10 5

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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