Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
545 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2015
00z taf cycle
upper high center has shifted with ridge axis generally stretched from
north to south over New Mexico. Plenty of moisture trapped under
the ridge although intensity and areal coverage of thunderstorms should
diminish by 03z with scattered rain showers persisting with occasional Montana
obscurations. Surface Lee trough continuing...and low level moisture
may allow for MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities in br to develop after 10z along
the east slopes of the central Montana chain...affecting the klvs taf.
Another round of thunderstorms to ignite over the higher terrain after
Previous discussion...313 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2015...
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact New
Mexico for the remainder of this weekend into much of next week.
The stronger storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and perhaps
some flash flooding. The upper high center will drift east over
New Mexico and weaken through Sunday. Storm motions will become
nearly stationary under the high center. By next week...the upper
high center will move southeast into West Texas and deliver a more
traditional south to north monsoon flow pattern over central and
western New Mexico...with locally heavy rainfall continuing. A
slight drying and warming trend is possible by latter half of next
not much change from previous forecast cycle for the next 7 days.
High moisture content and abundant solar insolation today has led
to numerous rain showers/trsra with locally heavy rainfall. Outflows are
working efficiently today to keep storms displacing each other and
limiting threat for any one more getting hammered by torrential
rainfall. That is helping to alleviate the flash flood threat so
far. Short-term guidance continues to focus heaviest precipitation over
the area from Catron County to Grants...abq/saf and the Central
Highlands through this evening.
Sunday still remains a challenge as models are significantly at
odds with coverage areas...so stuck with a general climatology pop and
nudged to consensus of guidance. The next big round of widespread
heavier precipitation still appears on the target for Monday from the
east slopes of the sangres across the plains. A potent moist low
level boundary will move southwest over the area and through gaps
into the central mts Monday night. This will aid a big uptick for
Tuesday within central and western nm. Again...the potential for
flash flooding exists just about anywhere...especially over burn
scar areas...urban drainages...and locales that have recently seen
very heavy rainfall.
A slight downtick in coverage may begin Wednesday as the upper
high builds south of New Mexico and battles an deepening trough
along the West Coast. A 70-90kt 300mb jet axis will work into the
Great Basin with an associated dry intrusion. This would focus
convective more into the high terrain and nearby east slopes by
the end of the week...along with increasing maximum temperatures.
Fire weather...healthy crop of showers and storms so far this afternoon
from immediately east of the Central Mountain chain on west...though
across the northwest plateau area not much yet. Majority of storms likely
producing significant wetting rains. Upper high still looks pretty
likely to recenter itself just to the south and southeast of the forecast area
late tonight into Sunday. With a weak middle to upper level trough
moving over Colorado and northern New Mexico chances for wetting
rain will continue if not increase a bit most areas as a result.
Vent rates will likely increase at least a little on Sunday as
slightly stronger winds develop and a low level Lee side trough
deepens over southeast Colorado increasing the surface pressure
gradient across roughly the NE half of the state.
Timing of the backdoor front is still similar as previously
indicated...moving down the eastern plains on Monday...then through
the Central Mountain chain Monday night. This should bring in a
fresh low level influx of moisture across the area and keep moisture
content through the troposphere above seasonal normals across most
of the area. This will also likely result in another increase in
shower and storm coverage for much of the east Monday and Monday night
where locally heavy rainfall is possible...then west and central
Tuesday. Temperatures and vent rates trend down Tuesday...especially
east...behind the front.
The forecast for middle to late next week still indicated a generally
weak west to SW flow aloft over the area with the upper high south
of the area and plenty of moisture remaining over the state for
daily rounds of storms... favoring central and western areas.