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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
256 PM MST Friday Jan 30 2015

Synopsis...
wet and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday as
abundant moisture continues to flow northward ahead of a Pacific
low. Snow accumulation levels will ultimately rise making the
rest of the period a higher elevation snow event. A second atmospheric
wave and accompanying surface cold front will track southward
over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday and provide a
mix of rain and snow. A warming and drying trend is still expected
for the earlier portion of next week with bouts of breeziness.
Another weak system passage and back door cold front will be
possible midweek.

&&

Discussion...
carefully analyzed current/expected thermal/moisture profile and snow
conditions. Decided to make some alterations to the current
highlight package. Downgraded some of the warnings to advisories
as well as cancelled some of the advisories. Made some additions
and upgrades as well. Upgraded the Taos zone to a warning
although the major part of the snowfall impact came earlier today.
Some freezing tonight with lower surface temperatures across the upper
Rio Grande Valley is expected and should create some hazardous Road
conditions. Carefully analyzed Santa Fe zone and decided to keep
that highlight an advisory. Cancelled advisory early for abq metropolitan
area because the expected snow impact should be minimal and localized the
rest of the period. Cant rule out some localized 1 to 2.5 inch
snow accumulations along the abq foothills and rural areas northwest of
Rio Rancho later tonight into Saturday but impact should be
minimal. Also added Farmington zone to an advisory based on current
conditions. These snow conditions should gradually improve
tonight but if the low level pocket of cooler air hangs in a
little longer then slush freezing is a possibility. Also looked at
the northern Sacramento Mountain and Catron County warnings very
closely since the impact will generally be 8000 to 8500 feet and
above. Will allow the warning to ride there and let later shifts
decide its fate. Will also continue to monitor any rain on snow
impacts across Catron County based on what has already fallen and
what is expected to fall. The new west-southwest product will be out shortly.

Overall...minimized snow/freezing precipitation accumulation across the lowest
elevations including portions of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern
plains as well as western mountains current snotel data shows
temperatures above freezing with high dewpoints across Catron
County. The warm tongue associated with this higher wet bulb zero
airmass will continue to track northward based on current
satellite imagery. Otherwise...very little changes made to the
gridded forecast. Adjusted temperatures slightly and continued with the
high pop/quantitative precipitation forecast event through Saturday.

Went a little higher with probability of precipitation Sat night into Sunday along the
east slopes of the central mountains as a back door cold front and
associated weak wave track north to south across the area. Models are
a little more bullish and have some consensus between them for
this period. Although liquid water amounts will be light.

Still looking at a drier overall pattern for the earlier half of
next week. Some bouts of breeziness is expected with a gradual
warming trend. Only caveat to this would be a back door cold front
across the eastern plains on Wednesday. Perhaps some showers
associated with a weak wave favoring the north as well during that
time frame.

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&&

Fire weather...
with widespread wetting precipitation expected to continue tonight
and Saturday morning...no major fire weather concerns outside of
poor ventilation are anticipated during the next seven days.

A broad upper level closed low circulation over Southern California
will continue to lift deep subtropical moisture northward over New
Mexico tonight and Saturday. Snow levels will be on the rise over
southern and central areas west of the Central Mountain chain this
evening and overnight as the relatively warm subtropical airmass
begins to modify the lower atmosphere.

As northwest flow aloft associated with a deep upper level trough
dropping southeastward through the northern and Central Plains Saturday
night...the upper low to the west will be forced south and
southeastward into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. An associated
backdoor cold front will drop into the eastern plains Saturday
night...sparking a few snow showers along and east of the Central
Mountain chain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures
will modify somewhat Monday...with a stronger warmup expected
Tuesday. Models remain in good agreement that another backdoor cold
front will drop into the eastern plains lateday Wednesday or
Wednesday night...cooling temperatures east of the Central Mountain
chain to several degrees to slightly below average.

Ventilation rates will trend upward somewhat over the east
Sunday...then areawide Monday and Tuesday.



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&&

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
deep subtropical moisture plume continues to ride up and over
cool surface airmass. Mts obscured. Periods of light to moderate
widespread rain and snow will continue today through tonight.
Mostly MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities with areas of LIFR ceilings/visibilities in
heavier snow. Precipitation type will remain tricky as subtropical
moisture begins to modify low level airmass. Snow likely to change
to rain at kfmn...kgup and kabq this afternoon before changing
back to snow overnight. Mainly rain at krow and a rain-snow mix
expected at ktcc tonight.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 32 41 27 45 / 100 80 20 0
Dulce........................... 29 38 23 43 / 100 80 30 5
Cuba............................ 29 37 27 41 / 100 100 40 10
Gallup.......................... 33 43 27 49 / 100 80 10 5
El Morro........................ 29 39 25 43 / 100 90 20 5
Grants.......................... 30 41 25 45 / 100 90 20 5
Quemado......................... 33 45 28 46 / 100 90 60 10
Glenwood........................ 38 46 34 55 / 100 80 50 20
Chama........................... 26 36 17 40 / 100 80 50 10
Los Alamos...................... 27 38 28 40 / 100 100 40 10
Pecos........................... 24 35 24 37 / 90 90 40 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 26 38 19 37 / 90 80 50 10
Red River....................... 25 33 21 35 / 90 80 60 20
Angel Fire...................... 26 37 19 36 / 80 70 60 20
Taos............................ 27 38 24 39 / 90 70 50 10
Mora............................ 25 39 24 39 / 90 70 60 20
Espanola........................ 30 42 27 45 / 90 80 40 5
Santa Fe........................ 26 36 26 38 / 90 90 40 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 28 38 25 40 / 90 100 40 10
Albuquerque foothills........... 30 41 28 45 / 90 100 20 10
Albuquerque heights............. 34 42 30 47 / 90 100 20 5
Albuquerque valley.............. 34 44 29 48 / 90 100 20 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 40 29 47 / 90 100 20 5
Los Lunas....................... 35 46 28 48 / 90 90 20 5
Rio Rancho...................... 33 40 30 47 / 90 100 20 5
Socorro......................... 35 46 32 49 / 90 80 20 10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 38 29 40 / 90 100 30 10
Tijeras......................... 28 39 28 43 / 90 100 20 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 36 22 38 / 90 90 30 20
Clines Corners.................. 23 34 24 35 / 100 80 30 20
Gran Quivira.................... 29 39 27 41 / 100 80 20 20
Carrizozo....................... 34 43 31 45 / 100 80 30 20
Ruidoso......................... 31 40 27 40 / 100 80 30 30
Capulin......................... 25 39 23 35 / 70 50 70 10
Raton........................... 28 41 25 40 / 70 50 60 10
Springer........................ 28 40 25 39 / 80 50 60 10
Las Vegas....................... 25 37 23 36 / 90 70 60 20
Clayton......................... 29 40 28 38 / 70 40 60 10
Roy............................. 27 38 27 38 / 90 60 40 10
Conchas......................... 31 40 31 44 / 90 70 30 10
Santa Rosa...................... 29 39 29 42 / 100 80 30 10
Tucumcari....................... 31 40 31 44 / 90 70 30 10
Clovis.......................... 32 40 32 43 / 100 80 20 10
Portales........................ 33 42 31 45 / 100 80 20 10
Fort Sumner..................... 31 41 31 45 / 100 80 20 10
Roswell......................... 35 46 34 47 / 100 80 20 10
Picacho......................... 30 45 31 42 / 100 70 20 20
Elk............................. 30 43 30 40 / 100 70 20 20

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for the following
zones...nmz503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for the following
zones...nmz502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am MST Saturday for the following
zones...nmz501.

&&

$$

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