Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1149 PM MDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
06z taf cycle
widespread MVFR ceilings to persist along and east of the central Montana
chain overnight into Friday am. Weakening backdoor front pushing into
the far NE plains around midnight will continue to press
southward during the overnight. This will renew the low level
easterly gradient and provide additional forcing for areas of precipitation
from the east slopes of the sangres to the NE/ec plains along with
modest gap winds for kabq and ksaf. IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility conditions
appear to remain localized...favoring typical upslope locales. Montana
tops frequently obscured with the most persistent obscurations before
daybreak. Thereafter gradual middle- level drying from north to south
Friday middle to late morning. Across the west...residual middle- level
cloudiness to linger wc/SW areas with clear skies in The Four
Previous discussion...859 PM MDT Thursday Oct 8 2015...
have lowered probability of precipitation area wide for the overnight. Temperatures look good.
Zones out soon. Chj
Previous discussion...320 PM MDT Thursday Oct 8 2015...
cool and showery weather will persist through Friday over southern
and eastern New Mexico before a warming and drying trend arrives.
Temperatures will remain near to below normal for much of the area
through Saturday. A strong ridge of high pressure will build over
the state Sunday through much of next week. Temperatures will soar
into the 70s and 80s for many areas under generally clear skies.
Main focus for heavier precipitation activity is over West Texas and model
forecasts continue the axis east of the area through tonight. Will cancel
flash Flood Advisory with new forecast package.
The latest water vapor loop shows the large scale upper low that
has plagued the SW Continental U.S. With unsettled weather the past several days
moving well south into northern Mexico. 20z surface pressure analysis
shows a decent gradient across the state with 1020mb along the
east slopes to near 1014mb around Gallup. This will continue to
allow for gap winds below canyons in the Rio Grande Valley through
this evening. Local gusts up to 25kts are likely. Lowered probability of precipitation and
min temperatures most areas for tonight as models continue backing off on
coverage of precipitation and cloud cover. Low clouds and patchy drizzle
and/or fog will continue in the east.
Guidance continues to keep moist and cool upslope flow over the east
through Friday...so left low end probability of precipitation and mostly cloudy skies until
winds veer southwest Friday night. An area of fog is still looking
possible for the southeast Friday night. Downsloping winds Saturday
and Sunday will trend temperatures back into the 80s with a few near record
highs possible by Sunday. An unseasonably strong 592dm 500 mb high over
the area much of next week will provide for above normal temperatures...
generally clear skies...and strong diurnal temperature ranges.
no critical fire weather conditions are expected through at least
midweek next week and likely longer. Upper level low pressure
centered not far south of the nm bootheel will slowly shift to the
SW farther away from nm over the next couple of days...but a rather
modest upslope flow through tonight and perhaps feebly lingering
into Friday will still import enough low level moisture westward to the
east slopes of Central Mountain chain to allow pockets of mostly light
rain to linger...though by late tonight and especially Friday the
precipitation should be confined to areas near and espec south of
Interstate 40. Maximum relative humidity by early Friday morning should range from 70 to over
90 percent areawide with most locales near and south of Interstate
40 peaking well over 80 percent.
Precipitation will be absent...or nearly so...from north and central
nm by the weekend. Daytime highs will remain several degrees below
normal across most of the southeast half of nm Friday...but climb to slightly
above normal Sat afternoon and generally 5 to 15 degrees above normal
thereafter for most if not all of next week. Even a dry backdoor
cold front impacting eastern and perhaps central sections Monday will
not be able to drop daytime highs below normal. After a significant
drop Sat...minimum relative humidity values will show a slower day to day drop
through next Tuesday or Wednesday. Winds will stay light to moderate in most
zones today...the exception being this evening when some moderate
east to southeast wind gusts could spill through central gaps/canyons.
Poor to fair ventilation will be the rule across much of the forecast
area Friday...except across the far NE and in west central nm and
the northern Gila where good rates should materialize in the afternoon.
Vent rates will improve east but may actually worsen a bit west on
Sat followed by significant improvement areawide sun. They may then
worsen to some degree by Monday or Tuesday due in large part to poorer
mixing behind the aforementioned back door front.