Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
446 am MST Thursday Nov 26 2015
12z taf cycle
A messy weather scenario will be shaping up...especially across
central to eastern New Mexico late today and tonight. Currently
batches of rain and some embedded thunderstorms are moving over
the southern and eastern tiers of the state with light to moderate
downpours...some gusty winds...and lightning. In the southeast to
east Central Plains of New Mexico there are some low clouds and
batches of fog sneaking toward krow and kcvs...and this will
gradually lift into the late morning. A significant cold front is
already plunging into northeast New Mexico where some IFR/LIFR
ceilings/visibilities are occuring with precipitation turning
more wintry as the day GOES on. Into the evening the front will
push farther south and west...spreading a wintry mix and
deteriorating ceilings/visibilities along with it. Look for
prevalent and widespread mountain obscurations along the central
to northern peaks and ridges. As the front spills westward through
gaps and canyons in the Central Mountain chain late tonight...it
will cause wind gusts to accelerate to 25 to 45 knots.
Previous discussion...415 am MST Thursday Nov 26 2015...
a significantly colder air mass will begin to invade eastern New
Mexico today...then surge westward into central New Mexico on gusty
east winds later tonight and Friday. At the same time...deep
moisture will continue to flow across the state from the south. The
result will be a wintry mix of snow...freezing rain and sleet for
much of the eastern plains and snow for some of the higher terrain
of the north and central. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Hazardous travel conditions will be likely tonight into early
Saturday. Highs Friday will remain below freezing over much of the
east and it will be much cooler central and west. Unsettled weather
and cooler than average temperatures will persist through the
weekend and possibly into the middle of next week.
cold front continues to make faster progress than the models can
keep up with. Wind shift has arrived at ktcc with a corresponding
nearly 20 degree decrease in the dry bulb temperature. Tried to
adjust for the faster timing temperature and wind wise...leaning
toward the cooler guidance ala the European model (ecmwf) and met at least in the
plains...but still the forecast may likely be lagging behind.
Not only some rather large discrepancies in temperature guidance but
pop wise as well for much of the forecast area. There remains some
banded precipitation forecast for the eastern plains moreso later
tonight and Friday and thinking the coldest air may arrive a bit
later so made some adjustments timing wise with winter highlights.
However latest hrrr indicates some of the banded precipitation may
start sooner...as in late this afternoon. The models continue to
have trouble resolving the lobes of energy rotating around the Great
Basin upper low...but it does appear that the low will be slower to
eject and a tap of moisture from the south could be more
persistently located over the southeast corner of the state.
Therefore unsettled weather may persist through Saturday and into
Sunday before a day or two of dry weather. The middle week forecast
also looks unsettled with little agreement between the GFS and
European model (ecmwf).
No critical fire weather is expected through the remainder of the
week and the long Holiday weekend...but rather a Stout low pressure
system over the Great Basin and a potent cold front arriving from
the Great Plains will lead to a wintry spell.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the daytime
today...increasing some in coverage...especially over the eastern
half of the forecast area. The strong cold front has already invaded
Union County in the northeast corner of nm and this boundary will
encroach farther into the northeastern quadrant of the state by late
afternoon. The boundary will pick up speed...pressing farther south
and west into tonight and Friday. As colder air plunges in with the
front...precipitation will turn wintry...first in the far northeast
corner of nm today...spreading south and west as the front advances
tonight and Friday. Look for several inches of snow accumulation in
the northern mountains while conditions east of the Central Mountain
chain range from a few inches of snow to a mixed bag of
snow...freezing rain...and sleet. A Strong Canyon wind will also
likely spill into central valleys with gusty conditions lasting from
late tonight through early Saturday.
This storm system will keep precipitation lingering over nm into
Friday night and Saturday...gradually lessening into Sunday as the
low exits into the Great Plains. A mostly dry pattern is still
depicted for the first half of next week...but as the vast low exits
farther away into the Great Lakes region a trailing disturbance
aloft could keep some low chances for precipitation ongoing...mostly
over eastern nm. This pattern could come with some bouts of stronger
breezes...but for now no critical weather is foreseen through the
middle of next week. It should be noted however...that model
agreement is poor in this extended time frame.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 am MST Saturday
for the following zones... nmz526-534-537-539.
Ice Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 am MST Saturday for
the following zones... nmz535-536.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 am MST Saturday
for the following zones... nmz510-512>515-523-527>533.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Friday night for
the following zones... nmz538-540.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 am MST
Saturday for the following zones... nmz511-516>518-521-522-524.