Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
600 PM MDT sun Aug 30 2015
00z taf cycle
rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to linger the longest into the evening with isolated to
scattered coverage across approx west third nm. These will move
generally to the east and NE...but quite slowly. Brief MVFR ceilings and
Montana obscurations are still poss with the stronger storms. Gup still
the most likely taf site to be impacted into the evening with tcc and
row essentially no chance and the other sites only with relatively
low chance of thunderstorms and rain impacts. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will
likely continue over the northwestern third into Monday morning as the
monsoon moisture plume shifts eastward from Arizona. Another round of
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms and rain Monday afternoon with northern...western and
to a little lesser degree central areas favored.
Previous discussion...301 PM MDT sun Aug 30 2015...
a normal late August to early September monsoon pattern will
persist through much of the work week as daily rounds of storms
favor the mountains and adjacent Highlands. Daytime temperatures
will generally be near normal central and west...and above normal
east. Atmospheric moisture is forecast to increase next weekend...
resulting in renewed rain chances and a downtrend in
12z kabq upper air sounding showed a precipitable water of 0.93 inch...which is
above normal for late August. Latest precipitable water analysis and water
vapor satellite imagery show an east to west moisture gradient...
with the more significant precipitable waters across eastern Arizona and along
the Arizona/nm border. The higher precipitable water environment is forecast to shift
east into central New Mexico over the next couple of days as the
middle level ridge axis...currently over the area...shifts south and
east. This shift in the moisture axis will lead to an uptick in
thunderstorms for the northern mountains and Rio Grande Valley
late Monday through Tuesday...when precipitable waters are forecast to rise
further above normal. Temperatures during this period are
forecast to remain near normal central and west...and 5-10 degrees
above normal east.
Medium range model solutions are trending toward a wetter end of
the work-week...leading into a much wetter weekend. The GFS
continues to be the more rain-bullish solution and has shown some
run-to-run consistency in tapping tropical moisture Friday through
Sunday. The NHC has identified tropical disturbance 1 in the
eastern Pacific...with a 50 percent chance of cyclone formation in
the next 48hrs. This is the feature that both the 12z European model (ecmwf) and
GFS latch-onto and will be closely monitored for potential
moisture input to our area during the Friday-sun period as the upper
level ridge axis shifts east and a fairly potent West Coast trough
develops. Increased probability of precipitation Friday-sun from previous forecast cycle...
but played it conservatively for now.
very dry air aloft has shut down convection over the Easter plains
today. The vast majority of activity near and west of the Central
Mountain chain. Models continue with isolated showers and storms
overnight and Monday morning across western New Mexico as the
monsoon moisture plume shifts east out of Arizona and into western nm. Monday
still on track to have the most thunderstorm coverage areawide
through the work week. Models are...however...trending wetter for
All models now on board with bringing in dry air aloft into the
northern third of the state Wednesday. Main change noted from this
morning's model runs was that they are now in good to very good
agreement with regard to Wednesday and Thursday being the down days
of the week. GFS and European model (ecmwf) also now in good agreement that remnant
moisture from a yet to develop tropical storm or hurricane
(currently named *disturbance 1*) to move up into nm Friday. GFS
keeps the weekend soggy with deep subtropical moisture continuing to
stream up from the south while the European model (ecmwf) is more stable and does not
generate nearly as much precipitation.
Additionally...both GFS and European model (ecmwf) introduce a backdoor front into
the mix early next week for more rounds of widespread...possibly
heavy...rainfall areawide. If the consistent run to run GFS is
anywhere close to being right...many locations could be measuring
rainfall in inches rather than hundreths or tenths during the first
week of September.
Poor to fair vent rates will dominate central and western areas Monday
with good to very good rates east. Vent rates will improve Tuesday
and Wednesday as west winds aloft increase.