Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
535 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015
00z taf cycle
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will continue through the evening and likely across portions of
northern/central nm overnight. The strongest storms will produce
MVFR ceilings/visibilities in heavy rain. Ktcc should be impacted
shortly...and multiple outflow boundaries collisions in the abq
metropolitan area should ignite storms around kaeg/kabq. Storm motions
across western nm are generally toward the north around 5-10kt
with storms across the east moving toward the east around 10-15kt.
Models continue to struggle with where convection will persist
overnight...and when it will occur. Thus...expect updates. MVFR
ceilings are again possible tonight near klvs and ksaf especially if
convection clears. Another round of storms are expected
Saturday...favoring northern and western nm.
Previous discussion...303 PM MDT Friday Jul 31 2015...
another active monsoon thunderstorm day is underway with localized
flooding. Thunderstorms will remain active across northern and
central New Mexico through the weekend...with a bit of a downtrend
each day as high pressure strengthens over the area. The downtrend
will continue through at least Thursday of next week with high
temperatures trending up to near normal west and above normal
east. A monsoon moisture plume may redevelop over the area late
next week leading to another uptick in storms.
the 12z kabq upper air sounding showed a precipitable water of 1... is
way above normal and only 0.04" away from matching the daily
record value of 1.37". The atmosphere is moisture-loaded to say
the least and an early start to showers and thunderstorms with
low cloud bases are the proof. Storms so far have produced locally
heavy downpours with amounts up to 1 inch in 30 minutes. Will
leave the Flash Flood Watch as-is...although was tempted to
include the Rio Grande Valley which will be outflow boundary
dependent for significant development.
Another robust round of locally heavy rain producing storms is
expected tomorrow before a downtrend begins Sunday. Both the 12z
NAM and GFS show a multi-day downtrend in precipitable waters ...to below normal
by late Monday. The 12z GFS builds the upper high over New Mexico
going into midweek with dry air working east-northeast around the
upper high circulation across the Desert Southwest...Great Basin
and into the southern rockies. This leads to a significant
downtrend in thunderstorms by Tuesday/Wednesday and continues through at
least Thursday with high temperatures reaching back to normal west
and above normal east. Both the 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS show the monsoon
moisture plume redeveloping late week with the upper high shifting
east a bit. Our probability of precipitation for Friday are up compared to Thursday to
reflect this potential change...but still generally below climatology
for early August.
widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
northern and central New Mexico this evening and during the
afternoon/evening Saturday. The upper level high will remain
centered over the state with abundant low and middle level
moisture...yielding slow storm motions and potential for locally
heavy rain. Vent rates will remain fair to poor thanks to the
weaker winds aloft while temperatures are near to below normal.
An impactful pattern shift is expected Sunday that will start a
warming and drying trend. A weak upper level low circulation will
round the high early Sunday...and strengthen as it moves over the
Great Basin and The Rockies through Monday morning. This movement
will act to flatten the ridge while drawing in drier air into the
state. Sunday will remain similar to Friday/Saturday...though
slightly warmer and precipitation focused mainly over western and northern
nm. By Monday...temperatures will rebound to near normal levels
while wetting precipitation chances drop significantly...focusing
mainly over the higher terrain. The circulation passage will also
assist vent rates to become good to excellent by Monday.
The drier and warmer pattern will hold Tuesday through most of
Friday as the upper level high center sits over the state and drier
air underneath it. Expect this period to see near normal
temperatures west and above normal temperatures east...improved
mixing heights with good vent rates...and little chance for wetting
precipitation except for the high terrain.
Long range models hint that the moisture plume will return beginning
late day Friday and into the weekend. The upper level high will
slowly shift east as an upper level trough digs across the Pacific
northwest. Current consensus has the plume working up to the
Southwest Mountains of nm late Friday...and spreading northeast on
Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase as a
Flash Flood Watch until 4 am MDT Saturday for the following zones...