Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
524 am MDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Aviation...
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions to persist through the taf period with a couple of
exceptions. MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible in/near showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near ktcc and krow. MVFR
visibilities also possible at ktcc and krow in blowing dust later this
afternoon and overnight. A moderate and gusty SW low level flow
will prevail across central and western portions of the forecast
area...while a stronger southerly low level flow prevails across
much of the eastern plains with surface wind gusts to near 35kts.
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&&
Previous discussion...336 am MDT Thursday Jun 20 2013...
moisture made an impressive westward run last
evening and this morning...much farther than models were
suggesting. Demarcation between the dry air to the west and the
soupier airmass to the east is a sharp one. As of this writing
dewpoint in k4my is 51f while kabq is at 14f. Have nudged slight
chance for dry storms farther west today to account for this...but
eastward mixing of the dryline is still inevitable. The Lee side
surface low will be rather deep in southeast Colorado while
southwesterlies aloft host speeds of 15 to 30 knots in the 700 mb-500 mb
layer. Deep mixing coupled with the surface gradient will usher
these stronger winds aloft down to the surface...and temperatures
should creep above average. In the east central to southeastern
plains a few stronger storms will be possible...but wind shear
environment will not be as promising as days past.
A near Carbon copy temperature forecast can be expected for
Friday...Saturday and Sunday. Probability of precipitation also do not alter much from
today through the weekend period. The moisture will likely try to
seep a bit west tonight and again Friday night...only to mix back
eastward into the daytime. Southeastern zones will remain favored
for isolated/scattered storms while drastically drier airmass
plagues the western half of the forecast area. Stronger breezes
will also hold with little day-to-day variation in the
strength/orientation of the Lee side surface low. Meanwhile the
upper high will stretch and elongate from the Baja California northeastward
into Texas and up into the MS valley...keeping the southwesterlies
alfot intact over nm.
A drier and warmer shift to the pattern can then be expected by
middle of the week as the upper high becomes more symmetrically
centered over nm. This will suppress thunderstorm chances while
blocking subtropical moisture from advecting northward into nm. By
late in the week the European brings the high farther west than
the GFS counterpart...which could reintroduce back door frontal
intrusions.
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Fire weather...
the dryline was poorly modeled and retreated much further west
overnight than originally forecast...with low layer moisture
filling-in the upper Rio Grande Valley. Good to excellent
recoveries early this morning along the east slopes of the Central
Mountain chain to the Texas border. On the dry side...poor
humidity recoveries with dewpoint temperatures in the single
digits and teens characterize the airmass.
A relatively persistent pattern has developed and will continue with
only small day-to-day changes through the weekend. Two weather
features...a Pacific northwest trough/low and an upper high centered over
West Texas...will allow a moderate SW flow aloft to prevail across
our area with the Pacific dry slot overhead. The 00z kabq sounding
precipitable water was 0.16 inch...which is 27 percent of normal for middle June.
This anomalously dry airmass will allow poor humidity recoveries...
extremely low minimums and many hours of single digit humidities to
continue from the Central Mountain chain west to the Arizona border. In
addition to being dry...this airmass will become rather unstable
with daytime heating and above normal temperatures. Haines values of
6 and even some localized super Haines will show up late in the day
for at least the next 4 days.
The red flag warning for today looks on track given the latest
forecast data. Decided to add zone 103 to the watch for Friday...
with good coverage of critical fire weather conditions in that zone
in addition to some localized super Haines. Zones 104 and 108 will
have good to excellent humidity recoveries for the next several days
with the overnight retreating of the dry line...in addition to
chances for wetting rains. Only the western-most portions of those
zones have a chance to hit critical thresholds and only for a couple
hours.
The transition out of this pattern looks to occur on Tuesday of next
week when the upper high is forecast to move northwest from Texas to nm...then
park over The Four Corners by Thursday. High confidence on this
forecast...with both the 00z European model (ecmwf)...GFS and GFS ensemble mean
showing the same position of the upper high at 180hrs. Look for a
downtrend in winds going into the middle of next week...with the
potential for some smoke issues as vent rates trend down.
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&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones...nmz101>103-105>107-109.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones...nmz101>103-105.
&&
$$
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