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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
553 am MDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Update...
minor update to the forecast to increase high temperatures today
for much of Chaves County. Best performing blended temperature
guidance has been 3-6 degrees too cool for this portion of the County Warning Area the
past couple of days.

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Previous discussion...533 am MDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015...
aviation...
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
showers and thunderstorms. Terminals most likely to be impacted by
storms this afternoon/evening are klvs and ktcc thanks to a
backdoor front. MVFR conditions...and perhaps short-lived IFR...
can be expected with storms later today. East Canyon/gap wind
forecast at ksaf and kabq tonight may be stronger than forecast
and highly dependent on thunderstorm outflow from the east.

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Previous discussion...343 am MDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015...
synopsis...
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will favor the southwest
..south-central and sangre Delaware cristo mountains today. Dry air
will keep thunderstorms hard to come by over the northwest third
of the state...including the middle Rio Grande Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms will favor the Easter plains this evening and overnight.
An unseasonably strong backdoor cold front will drop into the eastern
plains tonight and through central and western New Mexico Wednesday.
This feature will bring in plentiful moisture and will result in
numerous thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The active weather pattern will continue into the
weekend.

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Discussion...
main forecast challenge today is how far east will the low level
dry air get this afternoon. 06z nam12 and 00z European model (ecmwf) suggesting it
will get as far southeast as the middle rgv but GFS keeps the
moisture in place and develops thunderstorms over the sandias and
manzanos. Both models favoring the Southwest Mountains and the
sangre Delaware cristos south to the south-central mountains eastward this
afternoon and evening. A few strong to perhaps severe storms are
possible over the NE plains this afternoon and evening as a
backdoor cold front drops in and southwest winds aloft create
veering winds with height.

Models remain in good agreement for tonight through Thursday.
Above mentioned backdoor cold front drops southward through the eastern
plains tonight and into the rgv and points west Wednesday
morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms initially develop
during the late morning wedensday over all mountain ranges along
with the northeast plains. Wednesday afternoon...NAM and GFS focus
the heaviest precipitation in a large swath from the Southwest
Mountains northeastward to the northeast and east-Central Plains. Flash
flood potential increases Wednesday afternoon as precipitable
water values approach 1.25in most areas. Latest models trending
farther east with the center of the upper high and and a result
are stronger with storm steering flow. If this trend continues...flash
flooding from nearly stationary storms may be less of a concern
than training. Will hold of on a Flash Flood Watch for now to see
if future models runs settle on storm speed.

Upper high continues to elongate and move overhead Thursday and to
near The Four Corners Saturday. Flow at 700mb (~10k feet
msl)...however...continues to be southerly and a robust round of
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected Thursday
through at least early next week.

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Fire weather...
a cooling/moistening trend is in play through
Thursday due to a backdoor front and resulting uptick in chances for
wetting rain. The front will back into the northeast later today...
enhancing chances for wetting rain there. The front will then
progress south and west through the remainder of the area Wednesday
through Wednesday night...resulting in scattered to numerous
thunderstorms with soaking rains likely over a large portion of
northern and central New Mexico. Highs will be below normal
Wednesday and Thursday due to rain-cooling and added cloud cover.

A warming/drying trend to begin Friday as the affects of the
backdoor front diminish and the upper high builds up over the state.
A gradual downtrend in wetting rain footprint should accompany the
building upper high over the weekend and into early next week.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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$$

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