Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1149 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015
18z taf cycle
strong backdoor cold front has moved south across of the eastern
plains. North wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots will continue for a couple
more hours at rtn and tcc before diminishing. Gusts around 40 knots
at cao and cvn. The backdoor front will help trigger isolated
afternoon and early evening -shra and -tsra today...mainly over the
sangre Delaware cristo mountains and across the NE. More isolated
activity possible along the Central Mountain chain and their east
slopes. Will carry thunderstorms in the vicinity and vcsh at lvs with no mention at the
other taf sites. Isolated...higher based convection possible
across the SW mts this afternoon. Late tonight there is a possibility
of some near MVFR ceilings across the east...including lvs..tcc and row.
Previous discussion...913 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015...
added Quay and Curry counties to the Wind Advisory for today and
tweaked up wind speeds out there. Otherwise no changes.
Previous discussion...337 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015...
an overall unsettled weather pattern will continue for the northern
high terrain and the northeast plains through all of this week. High
temperatures will slowly trend back toward normal through the middle
of the week ahead of the next storm system approaching from the west.
Dry southwest winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday for western
and central New Mexico. The chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase again for all areas Friday as the core of an upper low
slides overhead. Cooler temperatures will move back into the area
behind this system...while the chances of precipitation continue
over the north through next weekend.
the final vestiges of wrap-around precipitation are impacting the Front
Range of Colorado this morning as evidenced by widespread showers
and gusty north winds. This activity is indicated by the 00z/06z
NAM and hrrr guidance to clip northeast nm this morning. Quantitative precipitation forecast will
be light with most areas reporting less than a tenth. Highs again
today will be below normal all areas...with readings 10-15f below
normal for the east. High pressure building down the Front Range
tonight behind the departing upper low will help force Light Gap
winds into the Rio Grande Valley late tonight.
One last upper vorticity translation within northwest flow behind the departing
wave will slide over the northern mts and NE plains Monday. This
will force another round of afternoon showers near the high terrain
as far south as I-40. Again temperatures will be below normal with a slight
trend toward normal for the far west.
An amorphous complex of upper level low pressure currently taking
shape along the West Coast will become the next weather player for
middle to late week. Guidance shows 500 mb heights deepening into a 562dm
low Tuesday over Southern California with a weak shortwave ridge
sliding over nm. This will trend shower and wind activity downward
for nm. A 90-110kt 300mb jet axis then carves southward along the
West Coast and deepens the trough into a tightly wound 550dm 500 mb low
over Southern California through Thursday. This will increase middle
level flow and deepen the Lee side trough over eastern nm. Winds
and temperatures will increase over the state with some possible marginal
fire weather issues noted Wednesday and/or Thursday.
Beyond Thursday there is considerable uncertainty regarding the
translation of low pressure over nm by Friday/Saturday and into
next week. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) open the wave and slide disorganized
precipitation over the area...followed by a series of fast moving weakly
defined shortwave troughs and ridges.
while some potential still remains...as it currently looks the risk
of a return of critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday has
A back door front moving across the eastern plains this morning and
into the afternoon will bring increasingly strong and gusty winds to the
NE plains and to a lesser degree the east Central Plains this morning.
Gusts near 45 or 50 miles per hour are possible near Clayton this morning. Wind
speeds are expected to decrease somewhat this afternoon. Critical fire weather
conditions not expected as humidities to remain too high. Afternoon temperatures
will only be slightly cooler today as compared to Saturday behind
the front. As the front backs up to the Central Mountain chain...expect a
few high based showers and thunderstorms to develop due to upslope
flow...more so along the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristo mountains
and less so farther south. Humidity recoveries tonight will be good
to excellent most areas outside of west central and SW nm where fair
to good recoveries to be the rule. Low temperatures will be a little above
normal west and central...a bit below east. High temperatures on Sunday
will remain below normal across the east due to the frontal
passage...though will be inching up toward normal across the west.
Later Monday...weak ridge aloft will develop across western nm...though
enough residual moisture will be around to trigger a few high based
buildups and virga in the afternoon hours. A few sprinkles may
actually reach the ground across the northern high terrain...though
the bigger concern may be erratic wind gusts with any virga across
western nm. Otherwise temperatures should warm to around 5 degrees of
normal east...very close to normal west.
The back door cold front earlier scheduled to arrive later Monday night
into Tuesday morning has been marginalized and in some models eliminated
from the scene completely. Still may be just enough moisture and
weak upslope to create a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with
aid of afternoon heating.
Wednesday looks to be breezy in many areas...but for the most part the
strongest winds still are expected to arrive Thursday and Friday. But
critical conditions have shrunk significantly Thursday and do not appear
at all for Friday. This may only be a temporary reduction as forecast
models seem to be in transition again in their depiction of upper
level low pressure evolution off to our west. The back door front will
be reinforced across NE nm and some thunderstorms may develop there
No ventilation issues are expected for the next 6 days...with mainly
very good to excellent vent rates expected...though far northeast nm
may drop into the fair or good categories middle to late week. Sat may
see some erosion of ventilation rates.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following