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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1153 PM MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will favor northwest nm through the early morning hours...
mainly just east of kfmn... but kfmn may see some impacts before
10z. Isolated -tsra is also moving slowly west near ksrr. Another round
of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will develop on Wednesday afternoon. Storms will favor
western nm...and will move west. Isolated convection is also possible
along the central Montana chain. If it develops along the central Montana
chain...areas from ksaf and kabq may see some ts as storms move
west...but confidence is not high at this time. Brief MVFR ceilings and wind
gusts near 50 miles per hour will be possible with the strongest storms.

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Previous discussion...326 PM MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014...
synopsis...
high pressure aloft will be wobbling over the 4 corners region
over the next week or longer. Along with the movement of more
subsident areas around the high center...this wobbling will shift
the locales of greatest shower and storm activity from time to
time during this period...but between late Saturday or Sunday and
the following Tuesday it still looks like a moderate to perhaps
strong uptick in convection near and behind a back door cold front
that comes across at least east and central New Mexico...if not
farther west. Hottest period for much of central...south and east
sections looks to be between Wednesday and Friday then some
cooling late in weekend into early next week.

&&

Discussion...
better crop of showers and storms across much of central nm this
afternoon compared to Monday at this time. Outflow boundary collisions
and interactions will spark additional convection across much of
the forecast area into the evening. Temperatures in middle to upper 90s in much of
central nm plus dewpoints a bit higher than this time Monday should
help the cause some as well. High center aloft in process of
shifting to the northwest so cells moving in an anticyclonic arc across
most of forecast area. While there has been one Flash Flood Warning so
far this afternoon...individual cell lifespans and training not robust
enough to help pinpoint an area of high enough risk to warrant a
Flash Flood Watch at this time...but evening shift may want to monitor
trends. Storm motion is slow for the most part...so locally heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet with stronger storms with potential
for very localized minor to moderate flooding...especially on
burn scars.

Precipitable waters are expected to decrease to below...maybe well below...normal
Wednesday night into Thursday in central and perhaps east nm due
to drying as the upper high drifts back south over New Mexico.
West and north central areas will be favored for thunderstorms on
Wednesday...with moisture and storms favoring more the northern
mountains.

Upper high is forecast to gradually move west to over Arizona by early
next week...this shift now slower than previously advertised. This
should allow for backdoor fronts to move SW across the forecast
area and replenish moisture for renewed thunderstorm activity. The
first push now being prognosticated to occur in the Sat night to sun
period. With the moisture and increased rain chances...look for
high temperatures to trend back down closer to normal.

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Fire weather...
a strong 500 mb high pressure system is expected to wobble around
New Mexico for the next 7 days with a mean centroid location over
the forecast area. This will keep high temperatures a few to several
degrees above normal for the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures should trend downward across the east late Friday into
early next week as a couple of back door cold fronts sag into the
plains.

The high pressure center jogged northward toward S Colorado today allowing
a wave of low level moisture to move into the area with increased
coverage of wetting and slow moving showers and thunderstorms east
of the Continental Divide. This moisture is forecast to wrap its way
anticyclonically around the upper high just in time to be tapped by
an upper level trough crossing the Great Basin and northern/central
rockies Wednesday through Friday. Thus...western areas should have
greater moisture and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday...then northern
areas on Thursday and Friday.

A moderate moisture increase with the first back door cold front
late Friday into Saturday should induce an uptick in the coverage
and wetness of thunderstorms. Saturday...the European model (ecmwf) phases the
arrival of this frontal moisture with an easterly wave passing
northwestward across SW nm resulting in much better thunderstorm
coverage across western and northern areas. The GFS appears to have
a slower and more southerly track with the wave...holding off the
uptick in thunderstorm coverage until Sunday and possibly favoring
locations a bit farther south.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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