Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1034 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions forecast to persist through the taf period with
light winds. Fog may still develop near sunrise at krow...but
forecast confidence too low to include in taf.
Previous discussion...307 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015...
the active weather pattern will leave nm alone for a while. In its
place will be a drier and milder regime. There will be a couple of
opportunities for a little precipitation...but by and large rain and
snow free weather is expected through the middle of next week. The
overall temperature trend will be on the upswing through this same
time period. A trend toward cooler and more unsettled weather will
return late next week.
plenty of sunshine has returned to the land of enchantment today.
While it is still chilly...temperatures are noticeably higher over
most of the forecast area. It will be generally clear and cold
tonight. Patchy low clouds may form over the east but be far less
in coverage than last night.
Friday will be full of sunshine and milder temperatures. With very
weak flow aloft though valley locations may have a tough time
breaking the early morning inversions that develop. Regardless the
afternoon will feel pleasant across all of northern and central nm.
Energy left behind over the far eastern Pacific will drift over
Baja California California Friday and weaken as it crosses nm Saturday and Saturday
night. Meanwhile a weak short wave trough in the northwest flow
aloft will slip into nm Sunday along with a back door cold front.
Models are trending toward increasing instability over southwest
and south central areas and a bit more moist as well. Will carry
isolated thunderstorms over the Gila region Saturday afternoon and
evening...with the south central mountains joining in Saturday
evening. Then will have low chance probability of precipitation over the northern higher
terrain for Sunday and Sunday night with the approach and arrival
of the northern branch short wave trough and front. Elsewhere it
will remain dry and milder with highs close to normal.
The northern branch trough will linger over nm and deepen a bit
on Monday. Enough lingering instability and moisture could produce
an isolated shower over the western...northern and south central
The upper trough will shift southeast of nm Tuesday with high
pressure building to our west. This will bring dry and mild
weather for Tuesday through Wednesday. Models then break down the
ridge and bring increasing westerly flow to the state later next
week. The European is much more aggressive on forming a closed low
over California late next week then slowly drops it south...all the while
pouring moisture into nm. The GFS has a couple of trough moving
through and then tries to develop a closed low over The Four
Corners region over the following weekend. We will begin a cooler
and more unsettled pattern starting Thursday regardless of which
model is correct. Chj
drier weather still anticipated through Monday although models
trending a bit more showery favoring the mountains it is that time of
year with March upon US now. A few back door cold frontal surges
mainly impacting the east expected. Weak cut off wave originating
from the Baja California area could bring some isolated lightning to zone 109
Saturday. The airmass would be conducive to moderately strong
downdraft winds with the passing cells. Another weak disturbance
could bring some showers to the northern mountains on Sunday with
lingering affects...mainly light showers over the mountains...on Monday.
Due to the lighter flow aloft...ventilation will be poor most areas
Friday but improve on Saturday thanks to some instability aloft.
Mixing heights would be unusually high across the SW on Saturday due
to the cut off low. Ventilation should improve even further on
Sunday due to much better mixing. A little lower Monday due to less
mixing. The airmass starts out drier but moistens some as the
moderate to strong middle level dry intrusion currently over the state
erodes. High temperatures should be near to slightly below normal most
areas through Monday.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models show ridging by middle of next week
which means gradual warming but also less winds aloft. This will
impact ventilation although could be short lived as the ridge is
expected to break down and allow for an increase in wind late next
week. Went a little above model guidance for Thursday winds based on
the time of year but doubt critical conditions would occur. Pattern
portrays some potential cloud cover ahead of the Pacific trough and
eventual precipitation chances. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) similarities break
down quite significantly Thursday/Friday although both indicate some
sort of Pacific disturbance eventually impacting the state. Thus
confidence much less later next week. 50