Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
543 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
dry and stable air will continue across the area through the next 24
hours with VFR conditions expected. Some gusty breezes will impact
some terminal sites Wednesday afternoon...mostly in the 20 knots to
30 knots range.

&&

Previous discussion...324 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014...
synopsis...
overall a quiet weather pattern for at least the next 7 days. Only
blip in that scenario is a significant short wave brushing mainly
the north half of New Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Main forecast models still only indicating some generally
low chance shower potential across mainly the northern higher
terrain and also only low rain amounts. Dusting of snow possible
above roughly 9000 or 10000 feet Wednesday night. Only other
significant issue will be nighttime low temperatures dropping to
middle 30s to around 40 into a couple or so of the freeze warned
colder valley zones of north New Mexico Thursday night if not a
night or two beyond.

&&

Discussion...
uneventful and overall much drier weather scenario for at least the
next week. One caveat to that will be relatively low chance of low
quantitative precipitation forecast showers across mainly the northern higher terrain between Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday morning. Latest forecast models continuing the trend supported
by at least the previous 2 or 3 model runs of being a bit less
bullish on precipitation coverage during this period. So did back off
slightly on quantitative precipitation forecast grids for this period...though still looks like a
dusting of snow potential above mainly 9k to 10k feet...especially
the closer one gets to Colorado line.

Only other issue of significance will be nighttime low temperatures
dropping to middle 30s to around 40 getting into a couple or so of
the freeze warned colder valley zones of north New Mexico Thursday
night and maybe a night or two beyond. Since it still does not
appear to be a freezing to subfreezing event in those freeze
warning eligible zones...no statements...watch or advisories.
One can also expect occasionally a bit breezy mainly across small
portions east of the Central Mountain chain. Not until just past middle
week next week does it look like some moisture tries to sneak in
along with a somewhat baggy trough approaching nm. Some showers
and perhaps a few storms may develop across portions of the state...
though some forecast models are buying in significantly less than
others at this time.

43

&&

Fire weather...
didnt make too many changes to the gridded forecast. Ventilation
looks to be pretty decent through Wednesday...then degrades some in
areas thereafter due to a building ridge. Strongest winds for the
rest of the week appears to be Wednesday due to a rockies trough
passage. Did lower dewpoints some across western/central areas for
the end of the week due to a strong middle level dry intrusion Post
trough passage. Went a little below model guidance /mtn areas/ based
on the strength of the dry intrusion at 10000 feet. This impact
should linger into the weekend...especially favoring the west.

As far as the rest of the today...look for a few afternoon to early
evening breezes as there will be a moderate wind flow aloft. The
upper wind flow will strengthen Wednesday as another Pacific trough
impacts the northern/central rockies. Cloud cover will increase
ahead of this trough and cant rule out some lighter showers across
the northern tier...such as favoring the northern mountains near the
Colorado border. This wave passage doesnt appear to be a wetting
event. Ventilation will increase across the majority of the area due
to this trough.

Following the trough...the ridge will build...initially over
California/Arizona but eventually shifting somewhat eastward.
European model (ecmwf)/GFS models keep this similar pattern through the earlier half
of next week. A fairly vigorous but drier in terms of precipitation
back door cold front is still expected to impact eastern areas
Wednesday night. A belt of strong northerly winds will be found with
the frontal passage. Post breezy conditions will continue through
most of Thursday across the east. Also looking at some Lee Mountain waves
developing Wednesday night ahead of the back door cold front.
Sandia/Manzano mountain ranges would be impacted the most.

High pressure should be firmly in control Thursday through Saturday.
As was mentioned prior that the models are showing a strong middle
level dry intrusion making its way over the area late in the week.
It should initially impact the higher terrain across the west on
Thursday and then impact more areas Friday/Saturday. Expect some
additional freezing Wednesday night but the better signature looks
to be Thursday night across the western/northern Highlands...mainly
because of some minor cold air advection/dry surface air and
clearing skies. The area could see a reinforcing cold frontal shot
sometime this weekend but the models dont show any precipitation
during this period. Perhaps some humidity fluctuations due to
northwesterly vs southeasterly flow across some areas.

Drier conditions are expected early next week. Will be watching a
tropical wave off the Baja California during this period as well as any sort of
low pinch off from the mean jet flow to the north. Also too hard to
say about ventilation at this time and will be dependent on the
ridge axis/location.

50

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations