Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
515 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
12z taf cycle
LIFR conditions at krow will improve rapidly to VFR between 13-15z
this morning. Redevelopment of fog is possible at krow early
Friday morning...but forecast confidence too low to include in
the last 3 hours of the taf. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light
winds will prevail through the next 24hrs.
Previous discussion...319 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014...
a tranquil weather pattern is shaping up over New Mexico for the
next few days as a ridge of high pressure aloft swells over the
land of enchantment. Some localized fog will slowly burn off late
this morning in far eastern New Mexico...and skies will remain
mostly clear for the remainder of the day. Above normal
temperatures and light breezes will persist through the weekend
with no chance of precipitation. A potential upper level
disturbance could bring some cooler air to the state by the early
to middle part of next week.
Clear skies are being observed over much of the forecast area
early this morning...the exception being where a saturated
boundary layer has produced some shallow fog and stratus in east
central to southeastern zones. A few secondary areas in the Moreno
and Estancia valleys are also possible before dawn. For now the
focus for fog is creeping up the Pecos Valley from Artesia to
Roswell and into rural Delaware Baca County. Once this Burns off late
this morning...expect above normal temperatures with readings of
5 to 15 degrees over climatology. By afternoon only a few high
cirrus in the northern zones should exist...making good viewing
conditions for the partial eclipse.
The upper ridge will be squarely over the greater nm region Friday
with 500 mb pressure heights peaking around 591-592
decameters...Summer-like readings. The absence of longer Summer-
like insolation will make it harder to reach the upper 80s...but
readings will certainly be well above average again with perhaps a
few near-record highs...namely in northeastern parts of the state.
Breezes will be from the south over much of the plains...but the
absence of a well-defined Lee side surface trough should keep
Pressure heights aloft actually decrease slightly into
Saturday...but MOS guidance indicates a few locales being warmer
than friday's readings. Have tempered this artifact slightly as no
strong downslope winds or other diabatic processes appear to
develop at this point. Look for mostly clear skies to continue
until Saturday night when a few clouds will begin to filter in
from the southwest.
Lee side surface trough does finally deepen and strengthen on
Sunday. Pressure heights aloft will lower...but the gradient aloft
will also strengthen. Thus...the stronger downsloping breezes will
keep temperatures well above normal. Strengthening gradient and
winds aloft will give way to a trough passage on Monday...and
forecast models are not completely on the same Page with strength
of the system. The European has not had perfect continuity over
the past couple of days...but does always seem to be
deeper...colder...and wetter with the trough and subsequent
perturbations. Extended forecast has some slight chance probability of precipitation for
the north central to northeast...but waiting a few more runs
before completely siding with the European model.
the warming/drying trend to continue through Friday and then go
flat. Highs today will be above normal and will trend up to well
above normal Friday into Saturday with a few record values being
challenged across the northeast plains. Humidity recovery has been
good to excellent lately...but will trend down across much of
northern New Mexico to the fair category by Friday night as the
upper high moves east over the state. Maximum vent rates will be a
mixed-bag of poor to fair through Friday due to significant warming
of the middle levels of the atmosphere associated with the upper high.
The upper high to shift east Saturday with improved
mixing/ventilation and some breezes picking up by afternoon.
Moisture in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will produce
clouds on Sunday in advance of the approaching West Coast trough
that will limit heating relative to Saturday. However...winds will
increase and there is some potential to hit critical thresholds on
both wind and relative humidity Sunday afternoon for a couple hours across the
northeast Highlands and plains. The trough will push through the
central and southern rockies Sunday night into Monday and be
followed by some cooling with highs forecast to be at or below
normal by Tuesday.
The 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions depart significantly beyond
Tuesday...so low forecast confidence at this point for the middle of
next week. The ecwmf has shown some run-to-run consistency dropping
a potent Pacific low out of the Gulf of Alaska down the West Coast
between Wednesday and Friday. So...best bet at this point would be
on a warming trend from middle to late week with backing winds aloft
prior to any later impacts from a West Coast trough.