Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1047 am MST Friday Feb 12 2016
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions at all taf sites through the next 24 hours with
clear skies and mostly light winds. Wind gusts to 30 knots after
18z Saturday across the far east Central Plains.
Previous discussion...302 am MST Friday Feb 12 2016...
a ridge of high pressure will bring record and near record warmth
to central and western areas today and Saturday as high
temperatures skyrocket 8 to 20 degrees above normal. A dry upper
level trough will then cross from the northwest with a cold front
Saturday night causing high temperatures to fall a few to 13
degrees from saturdays readings on Sunday. Another dry upper
level trough will bring another cold front with temperatures
falling a bit further in many places on Monday. High pressure will
return with temperatures rebounding again through the middle of
even with the cold fronts expected this weekend and Monday...high
temperatures will remain well above normal. A Lee trough will
result in breezy southwest winds across the plains Saturday.
An upper level low pressure system is prognosticated to eject
northeastward from California into the northern rockies at the end
of the week. This system may be broad enough to spread a few
showers into New Mexico Thursday through Friday. However...the
main impact will probably be breezy to windy conditions.
near record warm temperatures and low relative humidity with periodic breezes will be the
theme through next week. Snowpack in the high terrain will continue
to erode from melting and sublimation. Next Thursday is in the scope
for critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains.
An unseasonably strong upper high over Arizona will shift east today and
flatten to zonal flow over nm through Saturday. A weak northerly
wind shift over eastern nm today will shift south Saturday. Zonal
flow will transition to northwest Sunday as an upper wave moves southeast across
the southern rockies. Winds will become breezy beneath the upper
wave...particularly over the high terrain and on the east slopes.
Another northerly wind shift will work into the plains late Sunday
followed by southerly winds again Monday. Temperatures will yoyo over the
east with these wind shifts but overall remain above to well above
Vent rates will fluctuate as well. Poor ventilation today will trend
good Saturday/Sunday then deteriorate to poor again for central and
western nm most of next week. The east will remain good with better
Another upper high will crest over nm Tuesday and Wednesday with
near record temperatures and low relative humidity again. A break down pattern Thursday
looks to be the most widespread favorable red flag conditions for
eastern nm in quite some time. Models have been inconsistent with
the upper trough passage and whether any moisture will work over nm.
At this time it appears dry with cooler temperatures for Friday.