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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
605 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015

12z taf cycle
VFR conditions to continue all across north and central nm. A
weak back door cold front will enter far NE nm near or just after
dawn and continue south and west across the east half of the state
today...while some high clouds increase from the SW. Some strong
gusts between 30 and 40kt out of the north will follow close
behind frontal passage...mostly in the east central to NE plains of
nm. A modest increase in moisture and upslope flow as the front
encounters the sangre Delaware cristo mountains could initiate a few
showers and thunderstorms between roughly 19z and 04z...much of
which will produce only virga and some accompanying briefly strong
wind gusts. As the front squeezes through canyons and gaps in the
Central Mountain chain...locally gusty winds will be poss near
saf and abq between roughly 01z and 08z tonight.


Previous discussion...338 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015...
pattern still looks predominantly dry through most of this new
week...but winds will be a significant factor...especially
Wednesday and Thursday when some of the stronger winds of the
season will whip into the area...likely creating areas of blowing
dust. Temperatures to remain warmer than normal through
Thursday...then dropping close to and in some cases a little
below the norms Friday into the weekend.


a back door cold front will drop south and west across the eastern
plains today...bringing some cooling for most of the east while
staying above the seasonal norms. With weak disturbance passing to
north and the back door front bringing modest upslope flow to the
northeast part of the state...a few light showers and storms will
be possible over the sangres and northeast high terrain this
afternoon and evening. Activity to be mostly dry...though virga
induced wind gusts may well be an issue. Another upper
disturbance will pass south and north of our area Monday into Tuesday
with enough instability to create a few high terrain showers and
storms...the majority still dry though. Dry and mild weather Wednesday
and Thursday with a sharp increase in winds.

Still breezy to locally windy Friday and into the next weekend...but
generally slightly to moderately cooler. Forecast models disagree on
whether any precipitation develops across the state during this period
with the GFS saying yay and the European model (ecmwf) saying nay. No way.



Fire weather...
..critical fire weather threat increasing middle to late week...

Above normal temperatures will persist across the forecast area
today...despite the arrival of a cold front into the eastern half of
nm. Winds are expected to turn gusty in the eastern plains behind
the front late this morning...and the front will also usher in some
higher dewpoints while adding an upslope component to the east faces
of the sangre Delaware cristos. Thus...a few showers or thunderstorms will
be possible over and near the northern mountains today with still
very little probability for true wetting precipitation. By this
evening the front will advance westward into the Rio Grande
Valley...increasing boundary layer moisture to the west while a
brief gusty gap/canyon wind squeezes beyond the Central Mountain
chain. Overnight relative humidity recovery will creep up considerably in the
eastern half of the state tonight due to the increased moisture from
the front.

An upper low will move off of the eastern Pacific and toward the
Baja California by Monday...allowing some moisture and instability to be
juxtaposed over nm. Showers and storms are expected to initiate over
the higher terrain Monday afternoon...but coverage should remain
isolated with low wetting rain probabilities. Surface winds will
quickly be shifting southerly on Monday...but speeds will remain
light to moderate. Temperatures will remain slightly above
normal...and relative humidity will be lowest in the western zones at less than 10

The progression of the upper low from the Baja California to the Mexican
Mainland appears to be slower with the feature just making it to The
Big Bend area by late Tuesday. This will keep sufficient moisture
and instability intact over nm for another round of isolated
showers/storms Tuesday. Otherwise winds will remain fairly
tranquil...and temperatures will stay well above normal.

The more dynamic and critical period appears to be Wednesday and
Thursday when westerly flow aloft turns stronger with a cyclic Lee
side surface trough...deep vertical mixing...and above normal
temperatures helping to spread widespread breezy to windy conditions
across nm. High Haines indices are also present these days. Some
potential exists for these critical conditions to last into
Friday...but latest model runs are now showing a cold front invading
eastern zones with abundant high clouds that could impede mixing in
the western zones.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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