Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1214 PM MDT Thursday may 23 2013
Aviation...
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected across central and western portions of
the state with convection expected across the east. Gusty winds
will pick up throughout the afternoon hours across all locations
with gusts up to 20 to 30kts expected. Kgup expected to gust up to
35kts throughout middle day into the early evening. With a dryline
pushing into the state from the east a chance of severe weather is
possible this afternoon at locations in the east...have vcsh and
thunderstorms in the vicinity at ktcc and krow during the afternoon. The moisture
associated with this dryline push will lower ceilings at central
and eastern locations overnight and into early Friday
morning...particularly expected at klvs ktcc and krow.
Thunderstorm development at krow may be sooner than stated in taf
at the moment. Models are not in agreement as to convective
initiation at this site. Winds will begin to pick up during late
Friday morning hours in the west and east with a better chance at
thunderstorm dev elopement Friday afternoon central and east.
21
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Previous discussion...327 am MDT Thursday may 23 2013...
currently...ridge over New Mexico has drifted eastward...with axis
now lying from central Texas to the northern plains and beyond
across the Canadian prairies and into the Canadian Arctic. Flow over
New Mexico is shifting to the southwest in circulation about
sprawling closed low anchoring weather system over Washington
state and Oregon. Surface charts showing weak trough extending
from western Kansas across eastern New Mexico to roughly El
Paso...with dome of high pressure parked over south central
Colorado.
Models...in reasonable agreement through the Memorial Day weekend
and into the first half of the following work week. Some
differences in the details of feature placement emerging from
Wednesday Onward...but broad story remains fairly coherent and
with enough consensus to make some Stab at a midweek to late week
forecast. Plausible and acceptable consensus maintains a quasi
stationary closed low over the Pacific northwest that will
circulate a digging shortwave onto the California coast during the
weekend and move this first wave to The Four Corners on Memorial
Day. Trailing shortwave a little more amplified...and this will dig
to Baja California California early Tuesday and swing toward New Mexico by
midweek. Domestic GFS leads European colleagues at European model (ecmwf) on trough
passage...as GFS keeps decided negative tilt to the trough in
phase with closed low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska while European model (ecmwf)
maintains a less phased and more meridional trough. Bottom line
doesnt really change for New Mexico as the midweek story is
troughiness...and as the trough base rounds out and trough
coverage expands over the western half of the u...
zonal flow aloft will become established over New Mexico for the
last half of the work week. All solutions now telegraphing dig of
trough out of the northeast Pacific and down the California coast
heading into the weekend...with strong zonal winds aloft backing
to southwest over New Mexico as the weekend gets underway.
For today...active convection on tap for the eastern plains as
cold front drops out of the Central Plains into northeast New
Mexico...with some chance for severe storms close to the Texas
border. Lifted indices fall to 6 below in these areas...with
buoyancy supported by 1000 j per kg mu cape along the Texas line.
Mu cape locally higher over the northeast plains...and noting Storm Prediction Center
colleagues have eastern portions of Quay...Harding...and Union
counties under a slight risk for severe weather heading into the
evening...as southeast winds at the surface veer with altitude to
southwest and provide some directional shear with height. Chief
threat appears to be large hail accompanied with some strong wind
gusts. Otherwise...warming trend will push temperatures 6 to 12
degrees above normal across the state with some hazy high clouds
taking the edge off a broadly sunny day. Southwest breezes will
develop this afternoon from the Arizona border to the Continental
Divide...and combined with very low humidities...will produce red
flag conditions over the northwest Highlands through this evening.
For Friday...cold front washing out over the eastern plains...as
surface low deepens over eastern Colorado and extends trough south
and west across The Heart of New Mexico. Another actively
convective day on tap for the east...with thunderstorm coverage
expanding westward to the Central Mountain chain by Friday
afternoon. Storms east of a Clayton to Tucumcari to Ruidoso line
may contain some small hail and gusty winds...as lifted indices
fall to 4 below...and mu cape remains around 1500 j per kg. Will
need to watch this area carefully for possible need for a severe
mention in future forecasts...but will hold with the hail and gust
mention for now. Warming trends leveling off with temperatures
remaining above normal for the day...with a little more cloud
cover in the east and remaining sunny in the west. Southwest
breezes over the Arizona border country will combine with low
humidities to produce some fire weather concerns...with a similar
story over the Rio Grande Valley.
For Saturday...southwest flow aloft and at the surface as surface
trough extends from low over eastern Colorado back to the south
and west toward El Paso...and westward to the lower Colorado River
valley in western Arizona. Little change to the convective picture
out east...with lifted indices falling to 5 below...and MUCAPE
running around 1500 j per kg. Coverage will continue from the
Central Mountain chain east to the Texas and Oklahoma
borders...with things remaining dry over the west. Usual afternoon
southwest breezes will redevelop over the western tier near the
Arizona line...with fire weather concerns through Saturday
evening. Otherwise...a steady temperature profile with daytime
maximum temperatures remaining above normal.
For Sunday...southwest flow aloft strengthening as surface trough
deepens from the Nebraska Panhandle across eastern New Mexico to
the Texas Big Bend country and northern Chihuahua. With dry line
retreating back to the east...and deepening trough providing
sharper focus for convection...coverage Sunday will not extend as
far west as in previous days...with most thunderstorm focus on the
Texas border country heading into Sunday evening where lifted
indices are running about 6 below and MUCAPE remains around 1500 j
per kg. Some cooler air working in from the west will push
maximum temperatures down a little...but most spots will remain
normal or better. Remaining 6 to 12 degrees above normal in the
east.
Outlook...Memorial Day through Wednesday...southwest flow regime
continuing aloft with eastern surface trough for Memorial Day with
dry line and surface trough axis now mostly in Texas leaving just
a skinny strip of thunderstorm potential in the eastern tier of
counties. Shortwave will blast across the California coast and
nudge into The Four Corners on Tuesday...with some showers and
thunderstorms possible over the northwest corner of the state by
Tuesday evening....and this coverage expanding eastward over the
northern mountains through Wednesday evening as the trough swings
through northern New Mexico. Cloud cover and cooler air under the
shortwave will cool things below normal in the west...with temperatures
remaining near normal or a few degrees more in the east. Afternoon
southwest breezes will follow the trough passage...starting in the
west on Memorial Day...develop over the central areas on
Tuesday...and end up in the east on Wednesday.
Shy
Fire weather...
.Continued very dry and very unstable central and west through
Saturday...
Little change in the large scale pattern with a large upper level
low still centered over the Pacific northwest and shortwave ridging
with an axis just east of New Mexico. Though some middle and high
moisture moved over the state late Wednesday...another well defined
dry slot is approaching from the west. Another day of very deep
mixing expected...likely above 500 mb...thus breezy southwest winds
will develop across the western and central zones this afternoon.
Red flag warning remains in place for the northwest Highlands...
particularly near the Arizona border...with minimum relative humidity values into
the single digits once again. However...will likely see spotty
critical fire weather conditions and super Haines across much of
western and central zones today...but duration is not long enough to
warrant a red flag warning. Across the eastern plains south to east
surface winds will usher in higher dew points...especially
northeast...and isolated dry line thunderstorms with some wetting
rain will develop by afternoon. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal levels all zones.
Mostly poor to fair overnight relative humidity recoveries will continue central
and east but recoveries will be excellent in the eastern plains
where some low clouds or patchy fog could develop in the predawn
hours.
On Friday the upper level low deepens a bit across the west as the
ridge strengthens to our east. Therefore...the west to east
gradient in moisture will be greatest. Few changes in the west with
very dry...very unstable and a few hours of spotty critical fire
weather conditions expected. Increased surface dew points and
precipitable water east with isolated to scattered wetting rain in
the form of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight relative humidity recoveries will
range from poor to fair central and west to excellent east.
Little change Saturday with very dry and unstable conditions central
and west and a slight chance of wetting rain associated with a dry
line east. Extended models vary somewhat in the strength and
position of the upper low Sunday through early next week.
However...the upper trough is expected to deepen by early next week
over the western states...with an increasing southwest gradient
ahead of the trough. The west remains very dry through this period while
precipitation chances decrease across the east on Sunday and move
east of the state by Monday with single digit afternoon relative humidity values
expected all zones.
05
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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones...nmz105.
&&
$$
