Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
536 am MDT Monday may 25 2015
12z taf cycle
another upper level disturbance will cross nm resulting in rain showers
and thunderstorms and rain developing early this afternoon across much of nm and
shifting into the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon. Have added a
mention of ts at kgup...kaeg and kabq this afternoon where best chances
of storms appear to exist. Left vcsh at kfmn and ksaf where less
confidence resides. Brief MVFR ceilings and mountain obscurations are
possible with any storm. Gusty winds will be possible as well.
Most storms should diminish between 03z and 06z Tuesday.
Otherwise...look for breezy conditions along and just south of
I-40 within the higher terrain this afternoon.
Previous discussion...330 am MDT Monday may 25 2015...
a warming trend will start today and continue for the next couple of
days. However...today will see more showers and storms favoring the
north and west before the upper low over Colorado lifts into the
upper Midwest. Drier Tuesday and into Wednesday then showers and
storms will become more widespread east and central Wednesday night
through the rest of the week due to surges of low level moisture
into the region.
showers diminishing early this morning as one wave exits...but another is
upstream and poised to start another cycle of increasing showers and
storms west and north for today. Models have taken this incoming wave
progressively farther south...so stretched at least slight chance probability of precipitation
over the entire County Warning Area. General theme for Tuesday is drier...and probability of precipitation limited
to mainly mts. Wednesday will remain mostly dry west but as a trend toward
southerly flow develops ahead of an incoming trough...the south central and
southeast will see increasing chances for convection...especially
Wednesday night. For now it appears any strong to severe storms will stay
to our northeast Wednesday.
Thursday into Saturday will feature best chances for convection central and
east...as the upper trough passes and a stronger front pushes into the
eastern plains. The GFS seems slower with the front than 24 hours ago. Early
next week looks dry and possibly windy...but the tropical system is still a
fixture next week...and GFS pushes some moisture up towards the bootheel
from it. New European model (ecmwf) similar but slower by a day.
upper level shortwave over southern nm this morning will exit
eastward...but additional energy will swing into northwest
nm today. As a result...showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the northwest half or so of the area this afternoon. Wetting rains
may be more spotty. Elsewhere...winds may be breezy...especially
across the Central Highlands. Winds will diminish after sunset...and
good to excellent relative humidity recoveries are expected.
Zonal flow is expected on Tuesday...and overall...shower and
thunderstorm activity will be less than today. Still expecting
storms over the northern mountains...and perhaps the east slopes of
the sangre Delaware cristo mountains if a weak wind shift nudges up to the
area. Otherwise...humidities will trend downward...but will stay
above 20 percent for most areas.
As the next system approaches nm from the west on Wednesday and Wednesday
night...low level south to south-southeasterly flow across the plains will draw up
Gulf moisture once again...and may result in storms across the east
Central Plains as early as Wednesday evening. As the upper level system moves
across nm on Thursday...more convection is expected from the Central
Mountain chain eastward. Meanwhile...much drier air should filter into
western and perhaps central nm Wednesday and Thursday. In fact...daytime
humidities should fall below 15 percent. Though winds will be
breezy...especially Wednesday...they will remain below critical criteria.
Nonetheless...Haines values of 6 are expected each day.
Another back door cold front will enter the northeast plains
Friday...and continue to slide southward through the plains Friday
night. It looks like it will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain
chain...if not Friday night...then Sat night. Otherwise...look for
showers and thunderstorms to continue across at least the eastern
Otherwise...look for temperatures to remain at or below normal for
the next 7 days. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with most
areas within a few degrees of normal for late may. Ventilation will
be good to excellent...except on Friday and Saturday across the
northeast where poor to fair values are expected behind the front.