Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
541 am MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Aviation...
12z taf cycle
fast moving weather disturbance in the eastern plains of nm will
move rapidly into Texas by 18z as cold front sinks southward in its
wake. Winds shifting northeast over the eastern plains will build
a few thunderstorms against the east slopes of the sangre Delaware
cristo range from 20z Onward this afternoon. With isolated
coverage...have left this out of tafs for lvs once the current
round of convection has moved out of the State. Ridge from
northwest Mexico across Arizona to the Canada border will slide
east over New Mexico by tonight and remain in place through the
day on Wednesday. Thin cloud deck crossing into western nm around
00z late this afternoon will move across the Rio Grande Valley by
03z this evening and over the eastern plains by 12z Wednesday
morning. Ceilings will remain at or above bkn/ovc150.
Shy
&&
Previous discussion...416 am MDT Tuesday may 21 2013...
quick update to increase morning probability of precipitation significantly across portions
of Curry and Roosevelt counties and to lesser degree farther
north...also to add thunder and quantitative precipitation forecast to east central sections. Storms
should remain elevated as surface front drops even farther to S and west
of the storms.
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Previous discussion...345 am MDT Tuesday may 21 2013...
upper low NE nm taking its Sweet time in moving across NE nm. Decent
area of light to perhaps moderate rain near and a little ways north of
the Tucumcari and Logan vicinity with some patchy light rain...not
much likely reaching the ground...extending south as far as NE
Chaves County as of this writing. This area should not last more
than 2 to 4 more hours...but did need to increase low probability of precipitation across
portions of east central and NE nm. This low will still exit the
area later this morning. Frontal boundary still dropping S and a
little to the west across the the east central to southeast plains interface.
This front will wash out for the most part late today and the low
level moisture that was brought in will mostly scour out. Any
miserly amts of residual moisture may be enough to spark a few
small showers and storms across the north central and mainly NE nm...
but nothing really major. Some upper level ridging still looks in
play for Wednesday...with warmer afternoon temperatures...and also likely to be the
least likely precipitation day of the week.
Thursday into at least the week will bring the diurnal dry line
sloshomatic...generally pushing westward at night into maybe middle
morning before being pushed back east later in the daylight hours.
Some strong or even a few severe storms will be possible. The
dry line will continue to slosh back and forth over the weekend...
but models still differ to a degrees just how far east it will
mix out during the daytime hours. Early next week the is more
agreement than not that it will become less active probably be
held a little farther east near the state line.
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Fire weather...
critical fire weather...developing across western New Mexico and the
east slopes of the Central Mountain chain Thursday afternoon and
evening. On Sunday...critical fire weather possible across the
eastern slopes and adjacent plains of the Central Mountain chain.
Models...in reasonable agreement through the weekend and midweek of
the following week. Closed low over the eastern Dakotas extending
shortwave south and west across New Mexico into northern
Sonora...and this wave will sweep clear of New Mexico into central
Texas by midday today. Upstream ridge taking shape from Baja California
California across Arizona to the Canadian prairies will shift east
over New Mexico by Wednesday...as closed low parked over the Pacific
northwest sits and spins...with circulation coverage expanding
steadily as the work week wears on. Ridge axis will shift east of
New Mexico on Thursday...gradually shifting winds aloft to
southwesterly over New Mexico with gradual but steady increase in
speeds through the weekend and into the first half of the work week.
Shortwave moving onshore Southern California Tuesday will shear
rapidly across northern New Mexico across midweek into early
Thursday morning...as broad ridge builds in over the southern U.S.
For today...weak cold front moving out of the Central Plains will
invade the northeast through this afternoon. Daytime maximum
temperatures will run a degree or two shy of normal for most
spots...with shower coverage associated with the front remaining
scattered over the northeast. Little chance for wetting rains in any
of these showers. A few afternoon west to southwest breezes over the
northern mountains and adjacent eastern plains...with gusty and
shifting winds near high based convection and associated virga late
this afternoon. Continued very dry...with minimum humidities falling
back into the single digits and low teens west and south and across
the Rio Grande Valley...upper teens and 20s over the north and east.
No ventilation issues...with poor to fair humidity recoveries in
most spots...and good near the Texas border.
For Wednesday...ridge axis squarely over the state as surface low
deepens over the eastern plains...squashing down convection to
spotty and isolated mainly over the northeast Highlands and
northeast plains through Wednesday evening. Afternoon southwest
breezes near the Arizona line will spill over the chuskas and extend
to the Continental Divide by late Wednesday afternoon with continued
rock bottom minimum humidities pretty much statewide. Critical fire
weather conditions for gusts and low humidities starting to extend
into New Mexico for Wednesday afternoon...and this will need
watching going forward for possible Fire Weather Watch. Broad
warming trend will push temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above late may
normals. No ventilation issues with poor to fair humidity recoveries
overnight...much better near the immediate Texas border.
For Thursday...ridge axis moving east into Texas...as cold front out
of the Central Plains will bulge westward and drop southward across
the eastern plains during the day on Thursday. Dry line may focus
convection and supporting broad uptick in thunderstorm coverage over
the east through Thursday evening. Continued very dry as southwest
gusts develop over the western mountains...and across the Central
Mountain chain and sangre Delaware cristo range. These areas will bear
watching for additional fire weather watches going forward. Very
high Haines indices also map out over the Continental Divide through
Thursday evening. Ventilation remaining excellent for all but the
northeast...where conditions will deteriorate behind the invading
cold front. Cooler air will knock a few degrees off the daytime
maximum temperatures over the northeast...but all points will remain
above normal...with 10 degree or more departures over the east and
southeast.
Outlook...Friday through weekend...quasi stationary closed low over
the Pacific northwest will expand circulation coverage into New
Mexico through the period with gradually strengthening southwest
flow aloft. Eastern plains dry line thunderstorms will become an
afternoon regular visitor...as minimum humidities remain in the
single digits and teens over all but the eastern tier...where influx
of moisture from the EST will keep minimum humidities in the 20s
percent. Temperature profile running steady 5 to 10 degrees above late
may normals. Deepening surface trough from eastern Colorado across
the eastern plains to El Paso will support southwest breezes across
the central and northern portions of the state on Sunday...to end
the weekend with potential for critical fire weather over the
eastern slopes and adjacent eastern plains of the Central Mountain
chain.
Shy
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
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