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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
551 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will continue through the evening across northern and
western nm. Kgup will have the best chance of being impacted by
storms. Much of the convection will diminish by 03z. Aside from
brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities in stronger storms...VFR conditions will
prevail over the next 18-24 hours. Less convection is expected
Thursday as more dry and stable air filters into the state. Storms
that develop Thursday afternoon will favor northwest and NC nm. However...since
the upper high will shift south...storms will move toward the
east...rather than the west like in recent days.

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Previous discussion...340 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014...
synopsis...
over the next 3 to 4 days at least...placement of best shower and
storm potential will be driven by the location and strength of
high pressure aloft. Currently high pressure is quite strong over
southern Colorado and is driving storms toward the west ND
northwest across the forecast area. It is also pushing a more
subsident area across Texas Panhandle and nm eastern plains slowly
westward as well. Thus the latter area is staying rain free. This
subsident area will likely cause a little earlier than normal
drop off in storm activity for most central sections tonight and
allow little or no storms there and fewer than today across much
of the west. The moisture plume will will ease into northwest New
Mexico on Thursday and into north central areas Friday. A front
will then back into northeast New Mexico between Saturday and
early Sunday...perhaps followed by a reinforcement between Sunday
afternoon and Monday. This should lead to an uptick in showers
and thunderstorms in the northeast section of the state Saturday
and perhaps over a larger area of the state between Sunday and
Tuesday as the upper high also shifts more into Arizona.

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Discussion...
strong high pressure is centered over south central Colorado. This
location will continue to steer storms from east to west over
most of the forecast area into the night. Subsident area coming into
east nm has shut down storm development there and that suppressive
regime should greatly limit convection across central areas Thursday
while reducing it perhaps to a degree across west central or SW
sections. The drier and or more subsident airmass engulfing even
larger portion of the state for the rest of the week and perhaps
into Saturday...supported by all the forecast models...so probability of precipitation needed
some significant trimming...most radically across the southeast two
thirds or so of the state. Some Lee side troughing may induce some
breezy conditions at times across the NE third or so. Bumped up
afternoon highs a few degrees mainly Friday and Sat across mainly the east
half of forecast area.

Later in the weekend and early next week we should see some increase
in storm coverage as high pressure eases into Arizona...allowing at
least a couple of back door fronts to sweep across at least the NE
half or three quarters of the state. The more substantial front will
likely arrive between late Sat and early Monday. Any convection
developing along the leading edge of the fronts may cause the
boundaries to surge a bit farther south and west than what the
models are currently suggesting...but an increase in probability of precipitation and a
downward trend in temperatures seems fairly likely to occur in at
least the NE half of the state.

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Fire weather...
upper high will remain over portions of New Mexico through Saturday.
The area will remain under recycle Mode in terms of monsoonal
moisture. This means shrinking wetting rain footprints and gradual
drying near the surface. The wetter storms should favor the far
west/northwest based on latest modeling and expected higher
atmospheric moisture plume location. Temperatures will remain
above normal both day and nighttime. Humidity values look to be
seasonable if not a little below seasonable levels but certainly
not rock bottom. Lack of a middle level dry slot or intrusion means
the absence of very low relative humidity readings. Localized strong outflow wind
will remain a concern during this period due to some drying of the
atmosphere. Breezes expected Thursday afternoon across the east
due to Lee side troughing expected there.

Still looking at a stronger back door cold front to undercut the
upper high from the east on Sunday. Storms should become more
concentrated and provide a larger footprint of wetting rain during
the afternoon and overnight hours. This uptick in storm
coverage...especially favoring the east and sangres should continue
through Tuesday. Humidity should also increase during this period as
dewpoints increase and temperatures decrease. The upper high is
expected to also shift further west and north during this period.
Confidence is pretty good for this outcome based on latest model
trends.

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

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