Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
607 PM MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
00z taf cycle
not quite as active compared to yesterday but heavy ts/sh cells
will be around through 06z/07z. Latest mesoscale model shows
another band of storms forming to the west of the Rio Grande
Valley and moving eastward and impacting aeg/abq and saf. Based on
latest radar trends...cant discount that especially for saf. Sh
impacts...perhaps even a ts at lvs/gup during the evening
otherwise lessening impacts. Once the cells die off look for
MVFR/IFR ceilings/visible restrictions at lvs/tcc and perhaps row. Ceiling
improvements should occur during Wednesday morning and much quicker than
what occurred today. Less spatial coverage for ts on Wednesday and the
main focus would be across central/eastern terminal sites.
Previous discussion...256 PM MDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015...
a slightly less active pattern is expected through Wednesday
however there will still be at least scattered storms around
the area. An upward trend is anticipated Thursday Friday and
Saturday as a monsoon moisture surge moves north out of old
Mexico. More heavy rainfall with an increased flood threat is
possible during this period. The high pressure center will
attempt to move west into New Mexico by this weekend...forcing
the monsoon plume into Arizona. Temperatures will warm up into
the 90s again by the weekend.
after a widespread heavy rainfall event the past several days
over central and eastern nm...today is relatively much quieter.
However...that said...a well defined convective complex over
west central nm is advancing east into the jemez mts at 3 PM with
very heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Other vigorous storms are
also developing along the continue dvd and moving more swiftly east
today than previous days. Latest 18z nam12/hrrr and 12z Storm Prediction Center sseo
product favors the convective cluster moving north of abq and
forcing heavy rainfall into the jemez...southern sangres...and
the Santa Fe area this evening.
Overall not much change advertised for Wednesday through the
weekend. Still expecting slightly less coverage Wednesday with
focus for storms around the higher terrain. A monsoon burst is
prognosticated to surge northward out of old Mexico and trigger a big
uptick in daytime and nighttime precipitation Thursday through
Saturday. The Theta-E ridge axis appears skinnier from west to
east compared to the most recent heavy rainfall event...so the
focus for heavy rainfall should stretch between the central Montana
chain and the Arizona border. By Saturday then upper high is
still shown to retrograde west over nm and force the plume into
Arizona. Maximum temperatures will rise back toward normal for early/middle July.
an active weather pattern is expected to continue with day to day
variability depending on the position of the upper high as well as
the timing of any upper level disturbances. Thursday and Friday look
to be particularly active with a monsoon burst pattern in place
while Wednesday and Sunday look to be a little drier and less
active. Cooler than normal temperatures persist until at least
The upper level high is currently positioned south of New Mexico
with an upper low rotating off the California coast. In the wake of
a frontal boundary that raced through the eastern plains on
Monday...cool...moist and stable air is in place limiting wetting
rain east of the central mountains with poor to fair ventilation.
Elsewhere...thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain and
will move to the east. Fairly small footprints of wetting
rain...some locally heavy...are expected this afternoon and early
By Wednesday the upper low will move onshore and an upper level
disturbance ahead of the trough will cross Colorado. Some drier middle
and low level air will work into New Mexico from the west.
Still...ample moisture will remain for mainly high terrain showers
and thunderstorms...though a downtrend in activity as compared to
Monday and Tuesday is expected. Overnight recoveries will remain
good to excellent.
On Thursday and Friday...the upper high starts to build to the east
as the upper level low nears the Great Basin. This pattern will
support the transport of moisture from Mexico northward over the
state...resulting in an increase in wetting rain for most areas
except possibly the extreme northwest and extreme east central
As the upper high edges closer to New Mexico...the moisture plume is
nudged to the west...closer to or over Arizona...with a gradual
warming and drying trend Saturday and especially Sunday. Ventilation
looks to remain good or better through Saturday...with widespread
poor to fair values forecast for Sunday.