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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1123 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop this afternoon and even across much of the
state with localized heavy rain and lowered visibilities. Timing remains
the biggest challenge due to model inconsistency and inability to
identify small features that could initiate storms. Based on
satellite trends...highest confidence for thunderstorms and rain will be across west
and NC terminal sites. Start time of convection generally later to
the east...with it looking unlikely thunderstorms and rain will occur in the far southeast near
krow. Lingering showers are expected during overnight hours...but
location will be better determined by afternoon/evening convection. Areas
of lower ceilings Sat morning possible at klvs and ksaf...but
confidence remains low.

24

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Previous discussion...335 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015...
synopsis...
abundant moisture over New Mexico will keep scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing today and tonight with
locally heavy rainfall possible. The flash flooding threat will
remain elevated with many storms capable of dropping one to three
inches of rainfall...and some areas seeing repeated storms moving
over the same spots. The active thunderstorm pattern should
linger into Saturday...and will only gradually and slightly
lessen into Sunday as high pressure slowly regains some strength
over the land of enchantment. Expect high probabilities for
rain...some of which will continue to be heavy at times.

&&

Discussion...
batches of moderate to heavy rainfall are most prevalent over east
central New Mexico early this morning where some middle level
confluence looks to be stretching this activity northward. Expect
this trend to continue into the remainder of the morning...filling
in over the northeastern zones while more sparse and somewhat
lighter activity ensues over northwestern nm. Anomalously high
precipitable water values remain entrenched over nm while high
pressure blankets much of the southern to western Continental U.S.. a
weakness between two centroids of the high still looks to be
draped across the Colorado-nm border. This will be where more erratic
storm motions will be due to variable middle level winds with
remaining areas generally observing storm motions from the south-southwest to
north-northeast. Most cells will exhibit a 10 to 15 miles per hour propagation speed
today and tonight...but again training cells...a quasi-tropical
environment...and saturated soils will really escalate the flash
flooding threat. A million variables will be at work today...and
have tried to focus on the most important couple thousand while
drafting a Flash Flood Watch for today and tonight. No blatant
mesoscale convective vortices are in view just yet...but a cluster
of convection just west of El Paso could spread some inhibiting
cloud cover into the southwestern zones through the morning.
Otherwise the west central to north central zones would seem to be
in line for rapid destabilization and storm production into the
afternoon.

The weakness between centroids of the upper high is shown to
disappear into Saturday and Sunday...with the center of the high
rebuilding more into nm. Not much rise in the height fields is
expected...and plenty of moisture will be on hand to recycle.
While there may be a subtle decrease in coverage day to day...the
weekend should remain fairly active with storms favoring the
northern and western tiers of nm. Temperatures would make rises of
a couple degrees each day with more patches of insolation due to
bigger breaks in cloud cover. A weak wind shift could enter the
far northeast corner of nm Sunday...but this should provide
negligible changes to temperatures...perhaps an axis of surface
convergence for storms to fire.

Into Monday the high will be broadly in place over the southern
Continental U.S. With a connection of subtropical moisture doing its best to
stay intact from the Sierra Madre Occidental northward into the
land of enchantment. Into the middle to late part of next week the
high is advertised to push ever so slightly to the eastern nm and
West Texas border while a Pacific northwest low moves in...keeping and
steering subtropical moisture our way.

52

&&

Fire weather...

Upper high center over New Mexico with plentiful moisture in
place through Saturday. Cell motion will be generally to the
northeast...but models not in agreement in regards to wind
forecast...mainly over the west and north central. Therefore look
for some slow and erratic movement. Locally heavy rainfall will
continue to be possible.

Forecast models transport a disturbance located to our west into the
Great Basin Sunday...which temporarily flattens the ridge...although
forecast steering flow for storms remains rather weak and variable.
Models also hint at a weak surface boundary in the northeast Sunday
which could be a focus for convection. Overall there doesn/T appear
to be much of a downtick in activity until possibly Monday or
Tuesday...when a slow and relatively short lived warming and drying
trend begins. Highs will vary from mostly below average through
Monday to near to above average next Tuesday through Thursday. While
min relative humidity values will trend downward next week...overnight recoveries
forecast to remain excellent.

By late in the week...the high center shifts back to the east of New
Mexico in response to a stronger trough along the West Coast. This
brings the plume of moisture back across western and northern New
Mexico...consequently increasing chances for wetting rainfall next
weekend.

Areas of fair to poor vent rates forecast today through Sunday over
portions of the north and west. Rates improve Monday but diminish
again Tuesday.

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
nmz503>518-521>523-527>534-537.

&&

$$

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