Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
528 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015
12z taf cycle
patchy dense fog and/or low ceilings will continue in the Moreno
Valley...around kaxx...until 14-15z. Elsewhere...VFR conditions
will prevail. Another round of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are expected this
afternoon favoring the western third or so of the state. A few
storms are also possible across the northern mountains storms should
generally move toward the east or NE around 5 to 10kt. Brief MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible with the strongest storms. Kgup most
likely to be impacted. Some activity will persist overnight...but
most will diminish during the evening.
Previous discussion...305 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015...
the upper high will waffle over portions of New Mexico and the
southwest area during the next few days. Monsoonal moisture
trapped within the high will produce scattered to occasionally
numerous showers/thunderstorms over western/central areas through
Monday and gradually shift a little more eastward
Tuesday/Wednesday. Storm coverage appears to be more earlier in
the week compared to later in the week. An influx of moisture
fueling higher storm coverages is expected next weekend.
massaged temperatures/probability of precipitation during the next few days. Raised high temperatures
above guidance levels across the Easter plains while lowered min
temperatures within the higher mountain basins found across the
north...especially for next week when dewpoints fall. Increased
probability of precipitation slightly over the mountains next few days or above the
climatologically mean for this time of year. Otherwise...no real
significant changes since the models seem to have some run to run
The drier and more stable airmass will remain over eastern areas
today. The main moisture plume focus albeit diffuse will be found
across the west although the higher precipitable water values will be located
over Arizona. Have some likely probability of precipitation over the favored terrain areas.
Overall high temperatures should be near to above normal. Steering flow
will be even lighter today with the center of the high smack dab
over the greater Albuquerque metropolitan area. People will be able to
look in all directions and see towering cumulus/storms but little
impact is expected to the actual city until perhaps during the
evening. Even that is a stretch.
Precipitation water values should increase on Monday as the upper high
shifts a little further south allowing higher values to flow
eastward into the state from Arizona. Expecting a slight uptick in
convection/storm coverage on this day. Continuing with some likely
probability of precipitation over the mountains based on the upper high position...steering
flow for the storms should be from west to east with a slight
increase in speed compared to today. Locally heavy rain will be a
bit more commonplace. Models seem to be in agreement with this
A semi permanent Pacific trough should remain to the west of the
area during the work week. Monsoonal moisture will try to flow
northward around the upper high during the Tuesday through Friday
period although precipitation water values should gradually lower from
north to south as drier air works its way in from the Great Basin.
Storm coverage/wetting rain will decrease according to the drier
air trend. Favored areas would conceivably be found across the
Gila region in terms of higher rainfall amounts. Steering flow is
also depicted to increase during this period due to the approach
of the Pacific trough later week. It should be pointed out that the
European model (ecmwf) remains more bullish for a drying trend than the GFS. Will
continue to monitor that.
Still looking at an uptick setup in terms of storm
coverage/wetness next week into early the following week. The
Pacific trough should draw additional moisture northward from
Mexico and perhaps even the Baja California region due to tropical storm
activity there. At the same time...both European model (ecmwf)/GFS show a rather
vigorous back door cold frontal push late weekend into early next
week. The GFS is more bullish than the European model (ecmwf)...both in terms of
strength of cold front as well as the transport of tropical
moisture. Thinking more GFS at this time but will be monitoring
day to day trends.
water vapor imagery showing a pronounced area of dry air that has
invaded the eastern half of the state. This will significantly
limit...if not remove all potential of convection this afternoon.
Therefore...the best chance for shower and thunderstorm activity
this afternoon/evening will be across western New Mexico...though a few
storms can not be ruled out across the northern mountains.
Otherwise...look for temperatures at or above normal once again with
humidities similar to yesterday...though a few percent lower across
the east. A few storms may linger overnight across the west. Good
to excellent humidity recoveries are expected.
Models continue to show the moisture plume moving further into nm on
Monday...increasing chances for precipitation across the Central Mountain
chain and portions of NE nm as compared to today. Monday afternoon/evening
should be one of the most active days of the week. The moisture
plume looks to be a bit more disorganized on Tuesday...and some
models suggest dry air will nudge into northwest nm as well. Thus...will
still be some storm activity but perhaps not as robust as Monday.
All models continue to show dry air moving into northern nm on
Wednesday as the upper high shifts south and eastward. A few storms
remain possible on Wednesday...generally south of I-40...and
favoring the west Central Highlands. Thursday looks fairly dry as
well...though spotty storms will remain possible across at least
western nm. Similar story for Friday...mainly dry with a few high
Significant model differences remain for next weekend. However...
models may be trending toward a wetter solution...if not over the
weekend...than early next week.
Spotty areas of poor to fair ventilation are expected today...mainly
over mountainous areas...with a similar story for Monday.
Thereafter...ventilation should generally improve Tuesday through
the end of the work week.