Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1210 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
satellite and radar imagery depict a band of ts/rain showers that will
spread northward across central and east nm for the remainder of the
afternoon. All taf sites stand a good chance of convection either this
afternoon or evening...except for Farmington where the flow aloft will
shift more out of the east as the day progresses. Some strong to
severe storms will be possible...especially along and south of
I-40. An upper low will reach the bootheel today...then head
S toward the Gulf of California with resultant low level upslope flow that
should induce IFR and MVFR conditions in low clouds and possibly
some patchy fog across east central and southeast areas tonight.
Previous discussion...328 am MDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015...
a wet weather pattern continues across the state due to interaction
between a slow moving upper level pressure system over Arizona and
abundant atmospheric moisture in place. Good chances for showers and
storms will persist...favoring the mountains and eastern plains
today. Rain chances will favor the south central mountains and
portions of the eastern plains overnight into Thursday...where
flash flooding is possible due to heavy rain. Rain chances will
decrease Friday...favoring the southern half of the area. A
warming and drying trend is forecast for the weekend through early
next week...with temperatures back above normal by Sunday and
little to no chance for additional rainfall.
upper level low currently over central Arizona and moving slowly
southeast per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Convection
is lasting through the overnight hours across southern and eastern
New Mexico...with an increase expected today given a little
daytime heating. Most impressive surface based instability
forecast over southern New Mexico again today...where there is a
slight risk for severe storms. Otherwise...strong storms possible
for our area this afternoon with accumulating small hail likely in
the mountains. As the upper low sinks south into northern Mexico
overnight...lower boundary layer flow will increase out of the
east-southeast across much of southeast New Mexico with surface dewpoint
temperatures in the middle 50s to near 60...setting the stage for
heavy rain. A high pop/quantitative precipitation forecast forecast tonight through Thursday for
the south central mountains and east central and southeast plains.
Will issue a Flash Flood Watch for Lincoln and Chaves counties for
tonight through Thursday. In addition...wet-bulb zero heights are
forecast to lower enough tonight into Thursday to allow for some
snow accumulation on the higher peaks of the sangre Delaware cristo
mountains...which will serve as a visual reminder that fall is
here when clouds clear-off by late Thursday or Friday.
The upper low is forecast to dive south across northwest Mexico to
the southern Baja California by late Friday. At the same time...a backdoor
front will slide down the eastern plains and interact with a high
precipitable water atmosphere to force more showers and storms favoring
southeast and south central New Mexico. Ridge builds over the
weekend into early next week with 500mb heights forecast to extend
up to 591dam...quite impressive for middle October. This will bring
a drying/warming trend with temperatures going back above normal
by Sunday...then extending well above normal by Tuesday. The upper
low is forecast to be back over Southern California by late next
week...then advance eastward toward New Mexico by the following
weekend and bring US a 2nd round of precipitation.
upper level closed low over central Arizona continues to drift
southeastward early this morning. Models remain in very good agreement with
each other that the low will continue to slide southeastward today.
Atmospheric lift northeast of the low center will combine with
abundant low level moisture to produce another round of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight. Scattered showers and storms
will favor areas from the east slopes of the Central Mountain
chain eastward to the Texas line with the heaviest rainfall amounts over
the east-Central Plains. A few strong to severe storms are likely
over the eastern plains as strong southwest winds aloft help the
GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement Wednesday night through the end
of the work week...dropping the above mentioned upper low to just
south of the bootheel by Thursday morning. Easterly flow at all
levels on the east side of the low expected to keep chances for
showers and storms over all but the northwest third of the state Thursday.
A backdoor cold front is expected to keep showers and storms going
Thursday night. As the low continues to drop south Friday...chances
for showers and storms will be mainly confined to areas south of
A drying and warming trend under strengthening high pressure remains
on track for the weekend into early next week. High temperatures
will rise to slightly above seasonal averages north of Interstate 40
Saturday and from 5 to 15 degrees above average areawide Sunday.
Above average temperatures will continue into early next week.
Ventilation rates will be fair to good over much of the forecast
area today with some poor pockets near and just east of the Central
Mountain chain. Some improvement mainly west and central Thursday and
moreso Friday...followed by decreasing rates over the weekend.
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Thursday
afternoon for the following zones... nmz526-538>540.