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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1241 am MDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
quiet night in store. Wednesday should be pretty similar in terms
of convection as Tuesday. A few buildups can be expected over the
mountains with perhaps a stray shra/tsra. Best chance for storms
will be across the SW and SC mountains...but coverage will still be
pretty minimal. Convection should diminish Wednesday evening with sunset.

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Previous discussion...322 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015...
synopsis...
dry air will continue to win out and keep showers and thunderstorms
isolated at best this evening through Wednesday evening. Monsoon
moisture will slowly return to areas south of Interstate 40 on
Thursday and to the western half of the state late-day Friday.
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop each
day Friday through the weekend. The showers and storms will favor
areas along and west of the Central Mountain chain.

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Discussion...
35kt westerly speed maximum at/near 300mb combining with a middle and upper
level moisture gradient apparent in water vapor imagery to
generate a couple of thunderstorms over southern Sandoval and northern
Bernalillo County this afternoon. Elsewhere...convection remaining
south of the County Warning Area so far. Best chances for a storm or two this
evening will be south of Interstate 40 and over the far NE
Highlands and plains.

Models remain on track with another down day Wednesday...as The
Four Corners high center shifts slightly east over southwestern nm. As
The Four Corners high continues to inch eastward Thursday...moisture
will begin to seep back into southern areas...resulting in a slight
uptick in showers and storms over the southwest and south-central
mountains. Upper high slides eastward over West Texas Friday...allowing
monsoon moisture to stream northward into the western half or so of
the state. GFS has backed off on precipitable water values for Friday...keeping
the better moisture over Arizona until Saturday. GFS also keeps most
activity on Friday afternoon mainly west of the rgv...with storms
shifting/developing eastward during the evening. Moisture plume shifts
slightly eastward Saturday...favoring areas from the Arizona line to the
Central Mountain chain. Moisture plume orients more southwest to
northeast Sunday...keeping favored areas from the SW mountains
northeastward to the NE Highlands.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in very good agreement with regard to early next
week. Both models shift the upper high and associated moisture
plume slightly westward Monday and Tuesday...favoring western and northern
areas of nm.

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Fire weather...
Haines indices of 5 to expand areawide for Wednesday with pockets of
6 over wc areas. Widespread 6 Haines then develop on Thursday with
moderate Haines values persisting into Friday. Very good to
excellent ventilation most areas on Wednesday save for parts of the
east-Central Plains and wc valleys where fair or poor vent rates
forecast. Similar trends for Thursday...though ventilation overall
trending downward for southern areas. Ventilation improves areawide
on Friday.

Significant drying past 24 hours. But enough residual moisture
combined with subtle energy aloft to yield very isolated gusty
shower/thunderstorm activity through early evening from The Divide
eastward. The northeast part of nm favored for better developed and
longer-lived thunderstorms though still isolated. Otherwise another
quiet night with min temperatures trending downward a few degrees for
the cooler valley locations west and north where shallow
inversions more noticeable.

Gradually strengthening dome of higher pressure aloft begins to
shift more squarely over New Mexico Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Screaming message will remain dry and hotter conditions though we
cannot completely rule out an isolated afternoon or evening shower
or thunderstorm over/near the higher terrain. Appears likely that
further air mass drying will take place Wednesday. Daytime highs
several degrees above seasonal normals.

Subtle changes Thursday as the center of the upper high continues to
slowly translate eastward. Lingering effects of the dry intrusion
will greatly limit convection for most areas once again but an
uptick in shower/storm potential forecast for the wc Highlands and
lower Rio Grande Valley as steering winds become more S-sely. More
important changes commence Friday...as the next east Pacific trough
moves inland and forces a steady eastward progression of the upper
high. Moisture return in the developing southerly flow looks robust
but mainly far western areas initially. Shower coverage expands
eastward through the weekend. Diurnal temperature ranges will narrow owing
to clouds and increased precipitation coverage with daytime high
temperatures closer to seasonal if not a little below. Kj

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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