Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1121 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015
updated wind grids to indicate advisory level speeds across the
known gap areas found just to the west of the central mountains a
classic squeeze play has been ongoing for the past few hours with
speeds fluttering above and below advisory levels. Decided that
the speeds will remain a bit higher than guidance due to the
vigorous low to the west thus went ahead with a Wind Advisory.
Impacts include eastern abq metropolitan locations found near the
Tijeras Canyon as well as areas to the west of Abo pass and the
known gap areas near carizozzo/White Sands missile range. This is
entirely a gap wind situation based on the abq VAD wind profile
thus not all of eastern abq will be impacted with advisory level
speeds. Pretty localized event based on proximity to large gaps.
Previous discussion...1059 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015...
18z taf cycle
messy weather scenario for the eastern half of the forecast area
through tonight. A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions due to ceilings and/or
precipitation will impact many of the central/eastern terminal
sites through 15z/16z Saturday. Potentially longer at the eastern
terminal sites. The rare freezing rain will be prevalent at some of the
terminal sites such as tcc/row but expecting tcc to the main
impact site for that type of precipitation. Aww wind speed will
continue to impact abq through this evening. Perhaps some slight
decreases in wind speed this afternoon before a slight increase
Previous discussion...553 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015...
dew point lowering below freezing as east winds slowly strengthen
at the sunport. Went ahead and updated grids/zone forecast product to have a mention
of snow in the middle/lower rgv especially near the canyons...as
well as rain where thinking is some pockets of warmer air will
survive today in areas protected from the wind. Updated zone forecast product just
Previous discussion...410 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015...
Brisk winds...rain...snow...freezing rain and sleet will prevail
over portions of central and eastern New Mexico today and tonight
with hazardous travel conditions. Highs today will remain below
freezing over much of the east and it will be much cooler central
and most of the west. Precipitation should gradually taper off
Saturday and Saturday night. High temperatures will not be as cold
in the east Saturday and Sunday...although they will remain below
average across northern and central New Mexico. Forecast models are
not in good agreement but the weather pattern could be relatively
quiet for most of next week.
No changes to winter highlights at this time. Starting to see some
enhancement in the satellite imagery associated with the upper low
circulation...so will let the Winter Storm Warning for the San Juan
Montana zone ride. Otherwise forecast east wind into the abq metropolitan has
diminished a bit so not planning on a Wind Advisory for the middle Rio
Grande Valley at this time. There remains potential to expand a
Winter Weather Advisory into the upper Tularosa Valley and middle/lower rgv but
there is more time to consider this and will let succeeding shift
have another look. Models somewhat slower tapering off the
precipitation Saturday/Saturday night as additional energy rotates
around the sprawling upper low and nudges it farther
south...although the potential for the wintry mix in the east should
diminish as surface temperatures modify. Upshot is may need to hang
onto some of the winter highlights beyond 12z Sat.
Highs today for most locales in the east Don/T warm above
freezing...but they do modify about 10 degrees in the northeast and
eastcentral Saturday. Overall highs remain below average through the
weekend. On Monday the upper low finally lifts into the plains...and
some cooler air settles in over the west and central...reinforcing
the below average temperatures across the forecast area. Highs Don/T
recover to near average until the end of the week...although that
could change. Forecast models not in the best agreement for next
week...as a clipper type system could impact the north central/east
around the middle of next week...but may be mostly dry. Late next
week...the European model (ecmwf) forecasts another massive upper low approaching
from the west...while the GFS features another clipper system.
No critical fire weather is expected for the remainder of the long
Holiday weekend due to the invasion of a colder airmass and bouts of
wintry precipitation impacting a large majority of the forecast
The cold front has plunged through the entire eastern half of New
Mexico...and will continue to advance westward beyond the
Continental Divide today. Snow will continue over much of the
Central Mountain chain with several inches of accumulation still
expected in the northern mountains while conditions east of the
Central Mountain chain range from a few inches of snow to a mixed
bag of snow...freezing rain...and sleet. The brisk easterly winds
from the front are being accelerated through gaps and canyons within
the Central Mountain chain...and this will keep gusty conditions
ongoing today and tonight.
This storm system will keep precipitation lingering over nm...but
with a slow and gradual decrease in coverage and intensity into
tonight and Saturday. More notable decreases in coverage will be
observed into Sunday as the upper low departs the Great Basin...and
shifts farther east. Some breezy conditions...primarily at ridge top
level...will develop Sunday afternoon with temperatures rebounding
some in the east...but still shy of average by 10 to 15 degrees.
Into Monday the upper low shifts farther east into the Great Plains
with a mostly dry pattern prevailing into the middle of next week.
Winds were increased for Monday...especially along and just east of
The Spine of the Central Mountain chain. Forecast models diverge on
the placement and motion of upper level features into the latter
part of next week...so confidence is low on any outcome.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 am MST Saturday for the following
Ice Storm Warning until 5 am MST Saturday for the following zones...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am MST Saturday for the following
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following