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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
552 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015

00z taf cycle
gusty north to northeast winds with widespread MVFR ceilings and
visibilities with rain showers east of the central mountains and
some lingering snow and local IFR conditions with mountain
obscurations over the north Central High terrain. West of the
central mountains...expect convective buildups through at least
02z with a mix of showers and a few thunderstorms. Will carry vcsh
or thunderstorms in the vicinity at and abq. Gap winds will spill
into the central valleys around sunset mainly impacting kabq.
Expecting IFR/MVFR ceilings east of the central mountains overnight
and early Tuesday morning. Less sure of fog and not currently
carried in tafs other than during this evenings showers. Mostly
VFR conditions by middle to late morning Tuesday but another round of
convection will develop over the western high terrain by middle day
into the afternoon with possible MVFR ceilings and vsybs. Not enough
confidence to put in the tafs yet.


Previous discussion...302 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015...
cool and very moist conditions from the past several days will
slowly trend warmer and drier through the remainder of the week.
Showers and thunderstorms developing over the area today will
continue into the evening before tapering off by midnight. Rain
over the plains will also taper off through Tuesday morning. One
last round of afternoon showers are possible over western New
Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm back to near
normal Wednesday...then slightly above normal for the remainder
of the week. Most areas will warm back into the 70s and 80s.


the unseasonably cold low pressure system that has affected the
desert SW over the past few days is slowly pulling away into the
Southern Plains. 12z 700mb temperature anomalies were -2.8stdev
while 500mb heights averaged -3.2stdev over southeast nm. This is
resulting in surface temperatures 15 to 25f below normal for late April.
Any snow is now relegated to the higher terrain of the sangres and
right at Raton Pass. Will cancel the west-southwest at 4pm. Meanwhile a strong
surface pressure gradient building south over eastern nm behind the
departing low is combining with these cold temperatures to produce a brutal
blast of cold wind chills. The Wind Advisory will expire on time as
latest 20z observation show winds trending below criteria. Will also keep
probability of precipitation up into the evening as persistent rain development continues
over The Caprock. Some patchy fog is also possible along the east
slopes tonight.

Tuesday will feature a warmer and drier day overall with any precipitation
focusing along the Continental Divide. Low clouds/fog and light rain
will exit the east by sunrise. Another round of fog is possible
along the east slopes and over central and eastern valleys Tuesday
night as more efficient radiational cooling takes shape. Wednesday
through the end of the week looks much warmer with a slow trend
back toward above normal by Friday. A few late day sprinkles and
clouds are likely to build up around the higher terrain with
moisture recycling beneath an upper ridge. Winds look to increase
by this weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. Confidence on the
moisture advection pattern from the subtropics on the back side of
the ridge is low as models have fluctuated considerably in recent
days. Guyer


Fire weather...
ongoing widespread rain event and Greenup are combining to reduce
the potential for critical fire weather through the work week.

With the unseasonably deep and cold closed upper low currently just
east of New Mexico gusty north to northeast flow and a broad area of
wetting rain will persist east of the central mountains through the
remainder of today before steadily diminishing overnight. A few
showers and thunderstorms will also move from north to south over
western zones this afternoon and early evening and spotty snow
across the northern high terrain will diminish as well. Temperatures
remaining well below normal and sufficient low level moisture will
maintain good to excellent relative humidity recoveries tonight.

As the upper low continues to move to the east...upper level ridging
builds over the western states on Tuesday and then drifts slowly to
the east through Friday. Thus...a day to day warming and drying
trend will accompany this regime. While some showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly over the western and northern high
terrain...any precipitation footprints will be small. Through the
remainder of the week...slight chances of wetting precipitation will
be limited to the northern high terrain. Temperatures will finally
return to normal values all zones on Thursday as afternoon relative humidity values
lower below 15 percent across portions of the west and Rio Grande
Valley. A little warmer and drier on Friday as well...with a modest
increase in areas of relative humidity less than 15 percent. But winds should
remain fairly light on Thursday with somewhat stronger west to
southwest flow on Friday. Haines values will increase...reaching
high Haines of 6 across the west on Thursday with a broader area on
Friday...but winds and fire danger below critical thresholds and
green up should combine to prevent critical fire weather conditions.

Ventilation rates through the work week should generally be good or
higher...with some poor to fair values over the northwest on Tuesday
and in portions of the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday.

A transition to more active weather is expected over the weekend and
into early next week as the ridge flattens and a trough deepens off
the West Coast on Saturday. Chances of wetting precipitation
increase over the weekend...mainly over the higher terrain with a
shift to the northeast on Monday as a wind shift works into the
northeast plains. 05


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...




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