Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
533 am MDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
12z taf cycle
MVFR ceilings have cleared out of kgup this morning. Could see them
briefly redevelop...but confidence is not high enough to insert
into the taf at this time. Moisture plume will be focused over eastern nm
today...and best chances for storms will be at ktcc and krow taf
sites. However...storms will be spotty...thus have only included a
vc mention for now. Storms will move toward the east around 10 to
15 miles per hour. Brief MVFR visibilities in heavy rain are possible. Storms should
diminish by 06z. Otherwise...Lee side trough may result in
occasional wind gusts up to 30kt across NE and ec nm.
Previous discussion...340 am MDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014...
a plume of moisture will move through New Mexico today and
tonight...with best chances for rain focused on the higher terrain
and east. Some drier and more stable air will limit convection
Thursday...but storm chances improve Thursday night and Friday as a
disturbance swings over New Mexico...and moisture increases. Drier
and most stable air will limit the more active showers and storms
over the weekend to the southeast half to two thirds. High
temperatures generally look to be near to below average for the rest
of the week and much of the upcoming weekend.
playing whack-a-mole with this forecast package...although agreement
among forecast models is better.
As for Lowell...middle level wind forecast doesn/T seem to support a
huge surge of moisture getting this far...although some higher level
moisture could make it here but at this time doesn/T look like
significant and direct impacts will result. Will need to keep an eye
on this though. While precipitable waters may be otherwise sufficient...instability
lacking today and into Thursday over the forecast area. Therefore
ratcheted probability of precipitation down especially for Thursday and raised high
temperature forecast...although highs still below average west and
parts of the central.
Models in better agreement the upper low currently off socal will
swing into The Four Corners and west central nm Thursday
night/Friday as an open trough and exit Friday night...so ramped up
probability of precipitation for that time period...and adjusted daytime highs...which will
remain mostly near to below average.
With nm under the base of the upper trough over the weekend...drier
air to push into the northwest...and convection would be most likely
from southwest to northeast over the forecast area. A front at some
point during the early to middle portion of next week may affect the
eastern plains by triggering at least a few thunderstorms.
models are in better agreement this morning regarding the evolution
of the upper level low now off the coast of southern cali. Made
several adjustments to the forecast to jive with the scenario that
is shaping up.
Monsoonal moisture plume will shift over eastern nm today ahead of
the middle level trough axis. Behind the trough axis...drier middle level
air is expected to move into western nm...which should mix down to
the surface. Lowered dewpoints to account for this. The drier and
more stable air should limit convection this afternoon across western
nm...with scattered showers and storms favoring areas along and east
of the Central Mountain chain. Steering flow will take storms nearly due
east around 10 to 15 miles per hour. Temperatures will remain below normal
across the west. Above normal readings will persist across the
east...despite cloud cover...due to a decent Lee side surface
trough. Could see some south to southwesterly breezes this afternoon
across the northeast.
While GFS remains a bit faster with the progression of the
low...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) keep it closed through Thursday as it
enters Arizona. The middle level dry air across western nm today may
spread eastward...limiting convection further. Have lowered probability of precipitation
considerably for Thursday...though enough low level moisture will be
around to support a few storms. The favored area for storms on
Thursday will be across the west...especially if some monsoonal
moisture and/or moisture from ts Lowell moves in quicker than
currently anticipated. Meanwhile...Haines values of 5 may return to
north central and NE areas.
Friday looks to be the next active day. The upper low will open into
a trough as it crosses into nm. Monsoonal moisture and moisture from
Lowell will have moved up into the state Thursday night and will
continue to do so on Friday. Depending on how fast the trough moves
eastward on Friday...there could be a bit of middle level drying across
the west...which both models suggest. Elsewhere... however...
thunderstorm chances increase. Temperatures will be near or below
normal for most areas...and humidities will increase.
Drier and more stable air will move into western and central nm on
Saturday behind the trough axis. What is left of the monsoonal plume
will be situated over eastern nm. Storm chances and humidities will
trend downward for the western two-thirds of the area. A large scale
trough diving down the western Continental U.S. Is responsible for kicking out
the initial low on Friday. Depending on the strength of this next
large scale trough...Sunday could see more storms than Saturday.
Lift ahead of the trough axis...combined with remnant low level
moisture...may spark additional storms favoring the high terrain.
This will depend on how far south...and how sharp the trough will
be. Some long-range models suggest the trough axis will remain to
our west through early next week...keeping thunderstorm chances
up...especially central and eastern areas.