Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1133 PM MDT Friday may 22 2015
06z taf cycle
thunderstorms developing rapidly from eastern Lincoln to Quay
count. Large hail the main threat from these storms as they
continue to strengthen...expand in coverage and race NE through
about 10z. Row and tcc under the gun the next few hours. IFR
ceilings and visibilities in the storms. Widespread low clouds elsewhere in
the east including lvs. Gradual improvement middle to late morning
Saturday. Only have vcsh in gup and fmn at this point Saturday
Previous discussion...349 PM MDT Friday may 22 2015...
an upper level low pressure system crossing The Four Corners
region will create favorable conditions for the development of
severe thunderstorms east of the Central Mountain chain tonight.
Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain
with the potential for flash flooding...especially along and south
of Interstate 40. The storm track will remain active causing the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to persist this weekend and
next week...except for a notable downtick in storm coverage
Tuesday as a weak upper level ridge crosses
decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for tonight from Santa Rosa
to Roswell and eastward...where general rain amounts from a half
inch to around an inch are expected with locally higher amounts in
the 2 to 4 inch range. Locations with saturated soil and standing
water from recent rainfall will be most susceptible...most notably
Curry and Roosevelt counties. Strong instability is also expected
tonight across the east with lifted indices in the -4 to -8 range.
And...there will be decent exhaust/dynamics as the nose of a speed
maximum in the polar jet moves over the area. As a result...there
is also a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across most of the
area east of the Central Mountain chain tonight. Models depict the
peak period for thunderstorm coverage in the east from 9 PM until
As noted above the storm track is forecast to remain
active...though most systems in the current model runs take a
northerly track across the central rockies. This favors locations
along and north of I-40 for thunderstorms through the first couple
days of the coming work week. Then...a deeper upper level trough
is prognosticated to come at nm from the west Wednesday...drawing deeper
low level moisture into the area from the southeast and producing
more widespread thunderstorm coverage Wednesday night through
isolated storms containing a mix of wet/dry
activity will impact the northern mountains and northwest plateau
through the evening hours. Strong gusts will be associated with some
of that activity. The main dryline found across the eastern plains
will erupt this evening and provide a good dose of heavy/wetting
rain across the eastern third of the plains.
The atmosphere will begin to dry out on Saturday as the dryline gets
mixed back to the east and out of the area. Residual moisture and
instability will drive a few showers/storms across the northwest half
during the afternoon/evening. Winds will be gusty at times across
the east. Localized strong wind/low relative humidity values are expected across
the ec and southeast plains. Temperatures will be below normal.
A trailing piece of Pacific trough energy is expected to impact the
northwest half on Sunday and again Monday. This means continued
chances of showers/thunderstorms. Some wetting rain and perhaps some
high elevation snow is expected with during this time frame. The
flow will turn more west-northwest on Sunday and have some stronger wind speeds
in the latest gridded forecast. The breeziest conditions should be
felt along and to the east of the central mountains teen relative humidity values
should be relegated to the far south however. The wind flow should
lower on Monday and teen relative humidity values should remain across the south
due to the airmass aloft being drier there.
Models are trending a bit more bullish for heightened
shower/thunderstorm activity by middle week as a Pacific low
strengthens to the west of the state. The GFS remains more bullish
than the European model (ecmwf) but based on the recent pattern...cant discount it.
Thus...expect the dryline to sharpen back up with subtropical
moisture flowing over the top. Wednesday/Thursday and perhaps Friday
could be active days in terms of wetting rain potential across the
eastern half. Would put confidence levels at moderate to high based
on recent trends.
18z taf cycle
IFR/MVFR ceilings will erode away across the eastern plains through
early afternoon. Model guidance typically improves conditions a
little quicker than reality though.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 am MDT Saturday for the following zones...