Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1201 am MDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
spread the Flash Flood Watch from the Central Mountain chain
eastward for the remainder of the night. Also cancelled the Flash
Flood Watch for locations farther west. An upper level disturbance
will shift slowly eastward across northern New Mexico tonight with
the best forcing out ahead of it...which is across the eastern
half of the forecast area. The latest model runs favor the east
slopes of the Central Mountain for heavy rain tonight...but this
activity will tend to shift eastward and northeastward. Training
of storms could be a real problem causing some locations to
receive a few inches of rain. Extended the watch in time because
models suggest the precipitation will continue all night as the
slow moving disturbance remains over the forecast area.
Previous discussion...1125 PM MDT Monday Jul 28 2014...
06z taf cycle
very active and high impact period for aviation through at least
sunrise Tuesday. The upper level wave approaching slowly from the
west is interacting with moist upslope flow from the central Montana
chain eastward across the plains. Torrential rains are impacting
areas near Roswell...with low topped and highly efficient rain
processes along the east slopes. Guidance develops the entire area
of convection currently over the east into widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall during the predawn hours. Deteriorated taf ceilings to
near 020 with rain and mist most of the night for klvs...ktcc...
and krow. Farther west popcorn type shower activity is drifting
north around kabq/ksaf westward into Arizona. Only included vcsh
since rain footprints are small and activity is isolated in nature at
Tomorrow poses a very tricky forecast with regard to timing of
potential redevelopment of convective activity. Latest guidance
does not offer any confidence...but with the upper wave directly
overhead and lots of cloud cover and cool temperatures have just gone
vcsh for now central and west. The east may actually never really
clear out from rain/storm activity until the upper wave departs
Previous discussion...917 PM MDT Monday Jul 28 2014...
updated probability of precipitation in accordance with recent model and satellite trends.
A disturbance that tracked northward along the nm/Arizona border today
has begun a northwestward jog along the Continental Divide. This
feature will track slowly eastward across north central nm
tonight. Models depict decreasing precipitation coverage over
west central and SW areas...but enough moisture remains in place
to keep the current Flash Flood Watch in effect there. Models
generally favor the Central Mountain chain and adjacent east slopes
for heavier precipitation tonight...probably due to enhanced dynamics
with the approaching disturbance. Opted not to include the
southeast plains in the Flash Flood Watch because it has been so
dry there lately. Biggest concern for flash flooding tonight
appears to be from the sangre Delaware cristos eastward to Harding
County where the ground is already saturated in many locations and
models are roughly agreeing on an overnight precipitation bulls eye.
Previous discussion...318 PM MDT Monday Jul 28 2014...
after above normal heat last week...monsoon thunderstorms are back
in a big way. Good chances for rain this week will favor the
northern mountains and the northeast...with the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Another backdoor front
will recharge moisture across the area Wednesday and result in
breezy to windy conditions across eastern New Mexico and through
the gaps in the Central Mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley
Wednesday night. High temperatures will generally be at or below
normal through the period thanks to rain cooling and cloud cover.
kabq 12z upper air sounding revealed a precipitable water of 1... is
above normal (127%). The monsoonal moisture plume was positioned
over the desert SW and southern rockies and is resulting in
thunderstorm activity across the entire SW U.S. Into the central
rockies per the latest 15min lightning plot and water vapor
satellite imagery. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of
our area...minus the Rio Grande Valley and east central and
southeast portions of nm.
A shortwave trough identified in the 12z upper air data and
satellite imagery from this morning over eastern Arizona was
initialized well by the 12z models and will be a major player in
the thunderstorm forecast through Tuesday as it moves east around
the upper high circulation across northern nm and southern Colorado.
There is some potential for thunderstorm organization overnight
across northwest New Mexico and was one of the considerations in an
earlier expansion of the Flash Flood Watch...in addition to
already saturated grounds. Although thunderstorms are possible
almost anywhere Tuesday...the northern mountains and northeast
will be favored as the shortwave trough advances eastward. The
northeast quarter has been drenched recently...so it won't take
much rain to cause some serious flooding concerns. Dry air will
follow behind the shortwave trough across the northwest quarter
and be responsible for a down-tick in thunderstorm activity there
Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Moisture will be recharged beginning Wednesday across the east due
to a strong backdoor front. Breezy to windy conditions are
forecast behind the front...which will push into the Rio Grande
Valley Wednesday night then out to at least the Continental
Divide. This moisture recharging will bring precipitable waters back above
normal and lead to another uptick in showers and thunderstorms
Thursday. The focus will shift a bit east on Friday...to
along/east of the Central Mountain chain...as the upper high
builds back north to over the Arizona/nm line. Shear profiles on
Thursday/Friday with a northwest flow aloft will favor intense storms capable of
produce strong wind gusts and hail.
The upper high center is forecast to drift east over nm through
the weekend...but plenty of moisture will be in place for
continued thunderstorm activity.
no significant changes made to the gridded forecast. Higher humidity
and cooler temperatures will continue although have some brief
drying across western/southern areas Wednesday. Wetting rain
potential will remain prolific most areas into the weekend.
Current development was a little slow to go today but is now filling
in nicely and look for other areas to get into the action as the day
progresses into the nighttime period. It appears that southeast areas have
the least potential of wetting rain through tonight. Storms pretty
slow to move and some strong rain rates expected. Outflow winds
remain fairly robust with the stronger cells.
The higher atmospheric moisture currently in place will recycle out
in the form of scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms on
Tuesday. It appears that the main focus for wetting rain would be
found over the north central mountains and northeast plains. All of
the models show a strong signature of rain across that area.
Storm movement would be more steady towards the east as a wave
rotates around the upper ridge. High temperatures would be a few
degrees below normal. Humidity values should be near to above
Wednesday still looks to be an interesting day. Still looking at a
drier and potentially more stable airmass to impact western/southern
areas. During this period...the upper high should shift westward and
provide a northwest to southeast steering flow. The back door cold
front is still expected on Wednesday across the east. A shortwave
rotating around the upper high would combine with the back door cold
front to focus significant wetting rain over the north central mountains
and northeast plains. Timing and translation of these features is
tantamount to which area is favored but northeast half looks favored
right now. Humidity values come down some across the west/south but
not The Levels observed a few days ago.
The partial drying mentioned above will be short-lived as the back
door cold front pushes through the central mountains later
Wednesday and Ushers higher dewpoints further west. Thursday
should be a fairly active day in terms of thunderstorms. The mountains
will do pretty well and based on steering flow
projections...adjacent eastern plains. Northwest steering flow
depicted so cant rule out some very strong storms along and east
of the central mountains but will depend on low level stability. This
could be a cold front that stabilizes the low levels quite a bit
across the east on Thursday. Either way...humidity values climb
and temperatures trend below normal between 5 to 10 degrees across
the east and near normal far west.
Recycling of the moisture trapped within the upper high circulation
would continue on Friday. The atmosphere should be a little more
unstable as the effects of the back door cold front should be less.
Thus expecting a pretty good crop of showers and thunderstorms.
Another back door cold front or perhaps a series of weaker ones is
expected to affect the weekend period. This would act to replenish
any lost moisture within the upper high so the forecast area should
remain with continued wetting storms and higher humidity. This trend
is expected for early the following week as well.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 am MDT Tuesday for the following zones...