Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
428 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through the next 24
hours. Westerly wind gusts to 30 knots this afternoon on a line
from Clines Corners to Clovis.
Previous discussion...238 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016...
today will be the warmest day of the week. High temperatures
across the east will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal while
temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal elsewhere.
Humidities will be dropping below 15 percent for many
areas...especially across the east. A pair of back door cold
fronts will drop temperatures 5 to 10 degrees across the east for
the remainder of the week...but high temperatures will still be
well above normal. Dry conditions will prevail for the next week
despite a clipper system over the weekend.
today will be the warmest day of the week...and though there a pair
of back door fronts will arrive...the rest of the week will remain
above normal as well. As for today...a few locations in the
northeast may approach records for the date. Daytime humidities will
be very dry with single digits in some locations.
A weak back door front will slide down the plains tonight...cooling
temperatures for Thursday by 5-10 degrees. Yet another back door front will
slide into the plains on Friday...knocking temperatures across the NE down
a few degrees again...but still will remain above normal.
Sprawling upper ridge continues to be the main player through
Saturday. It will break down on Sunday as a trough crosses The
Rockies and arguably clips NE nm. Still looks to remain dry...though
northwest breezes may pick up again. Both a Pacific and back door front
will slide through the state...cooling temperatures 3 to 7 degrees from
saturdays readings...but again...all areas will remain above normal.
Upper ridge builds back in early next week with very dry conditions
back in place Tuesday and Wednesday. European model (ecmwf) is not promising with regards to
the next storm system. Though it does bring a system in around
Thursday...it is weak...dry...and largely remains north of nm. The
GFS does not provide much more hope...though does have another
system around 240 hours where the European model (ecmwf) does not. Will keep a dry
forecast in place for now.
dry with above normal temperatures through the forecast period. Main
fire weather concerns will be widespread poor ventilation rates most
days...and critical fire weather conditions being approached or
briefly reached this afternoon over east central nm.
The ridge of high pressure centered to our west will gradually shift
east and be the dominate weather feature for the rest of this week.
A weak back door cold front will drop south across the eastern
plains tonight. Ahead of this front will be some moderate winds
across the east Central Highlands and plains. Combined with low
dewpoints and resulting minimum relative humidities of around 10
percent will mean critical fire weather conditions being approached
or reached for a couple of hours this afternoon...primarily across
portions of Guadalupe...southern Quay and Curry counties. High
temperatures today will climb even higher...especially in the east
where highs will be up to 25 degrees above normal. Thanks to the
breezes in the east vent rates will be mostly fair to good in the
east...but remain poor across central and eastern areas. Good to
excellent relative humidity recoveries are forecast tonight. Highs Thursday will be
up to 10 degrees cooler in the east...but still 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Little change in temperatures across the west. Less
wind and higher relative humidity values Thursday will ease any concern for
critical fire weather conditions across the east. Widespread poor
vent rates Friday.
The ridge of high pressure will break down this weekend as a couple
of short wave troughs pass to our north. Associated with these upper
level disturbances will be back door cold fronts...one Friday night
and a stronger one Sunday into Sunday night. Still not looking at
any precipitation. Main impacts will be brief gusty winds behind the
fronts and cooling...mainly in the east. Even so...highs Sunday will
still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal everywhere.
The ridge of high pressure will build back over the state early next
week with dry conditions and mild February temperatures. There is
hope of a pattern change with the chances of precipitation returning
late next week.