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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
329 am MDT sun Aug 31 2014

Synopsis...
more wind today across the north two thirds of the forecast area
than we have seen for at lest a month or two. This the result of
the westerlies aloft dropping south far enough that...with the
help of full sunshine...vertical mixing will help transport a
decent portion of the stronger speeds to the surface. Northeast
and east central sections will likely be the most impacted. Weak
back door cold front looking to drop slowly and tentatively into
NE New Mexico between Monday and Tuesday...but may not make it
quite as far south and west across east New Mexico as was thought
would be the case two or three forecast model runs ago. High
pressure aloft will build over south New Mexico early next week
then shift to the east for the second half of next week. While
maintaining a pretty strong westward ridge extension for awhile...
eventually it will allow some moisture north into west and north
New Mexico by at least Thursday or Friday into next weekend.

&&

Discussion...
winds and heat will be the two main weather issues today across the
forecast area...NE and east central sections more so for the wind and east
central to southeast sections more for the heat. The former will be
driven by a temporary southward shift of the westerlies aloft with
vertical mixing strong enough to coax down to the surface a decent
amount of that momentum late this morning into at least the early evening.
The afternoon heat will send thermometers approaching record highs in
some locales mainly across the east and Rio Grande Valley. The
westerly winds will scour out most of the remaining low level
moisture in the east...thus looking at a rain free forecast today...as
well as Labor Day. A weak back door cold front will slip into the
northeast between early Monday and Monday night...but overall afternoon temperatures
to remain above normal.

High pressure aloft will likely build across south portions of the
state for the first half of next week...then shift east later in
the week while keeping a pretty significant east to West Ridge in
the vicinity. Tuesday will remain dry and quite warm...this despite
the weak backdoor front having cleared the NE third to...less
likely...half of the state. As early as Wednesday or Thursday we could see some
moisture easing into west of nm. So have kept low chance probability of precipitation in
for western and some portions of central mountains...more so Thursday
though. Precipitation chances and coverage should somewhat
irregularly increase gradually each day from Thursday or Friday into next
weekend. This moisture increase still looks somewhat tenuous as to
exact timing and strength...especially due to run to run variations
in forecast model consistency of late. So stay tuned.

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&&

Fire weather...
critical fire weather...not expected through the upcoming work week
and following weekend. Gusty winds and low humidities will develop
over the northeast and east plains this afternoon...mainly from the
Interstate 40 corridor northward.

Models...in good agreement on the New Mexico story through the
upcoming work week...following weekend...and into the first half of
the following work week. Aggressive shortwave rounding base of low
amplitude trough extending from northern Canadian prairies southward
to The Four Corners will shear into the Central Plains states by
late this afternoon...leaving New Mexico in fairly weak northwest
flow...as speedier jet flow sets up north of the state. Next tight
shortwave taking shape in the Gulf of Alaska will move to the inland
northwest by Tuesday night and shear rapidly across the Canadian
prairies through midweek. Chief impact for the west will be
development of broad positively tilted trough from the Canadian
prairies to central California by midweek...as ridge core shifts
east to the deep south...and puts southwest flow with attendant
northbound moisture transport across New Mexico heading into the
weekend. Moisture will have a somewhat challenging task to reach New
Mexico intact...as ridge core will expand back to the west.
Forecasts all showing some tropical system development off the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with slow drift westward into the
broader east Pacific Ocean...and this needs to be watched for a
possible moisture contribution as flow aloft over New Mexico shifts
to southwest in proximity to the stationary Canada to California
trough as next weekend winds up and the following work week gets
underway.

For today...fast moving shortwave across northern New Mexico...as
surface trough deepens from western Kansas across eastern New Mexico
to central Chihuahua. Tighter surface pressure gradient will support
gusty southwest winds across the northeast Highlands and plains this
afternoon as minimum humidities fall into the low to middle teens percent.
Temperatures will run in double digits above normal in the
east...but greenish fuels will mitigate the fire danger and will
hold off thereby on any red flags. No showers today with no
ventilation issues. Fair humidity recoveries overnight...closer to
good over the extreme eastern plains south of Interstate 40 and near
the Texas border.

For Labor Day...trailing blip in broader trough will clip northern
New Mexico through the day...as surface low shifts to the Texas
Panhandle and pressure gradient eases over the eastern half of the
state. Shift in surface low will introduce some easterly flow into
northeast New Mexico with some cooler air...as the remainder of the
state ends up with a degree or two shaved off the maximum
temperatures for the day. Temperatures will remain in double digits
above early September normals over the east...with temperatures much closer
to normal over the west. Another dry day free of showers...as
minimum humidities work broadly into the lower to middle teens percent.
Continued favorable ventilation...with very good to excellent
ventilation along and north of Interstate 40...and good to very good
conditions to the south. Fair to good humidity recoveries overnight.

For Tuesday...steady temperature trends as ridge core works back
over New Mexico from the east...and surface low placement over West
Texas circulates a little more westbound cool air into eastern New
Mexico over the north side of the low center. Temperatures will
still run 5 to 10 degrees above early September normals over the
east...and closer to normal over the west. Cooling will help boost
minimum humidities into the upper teens and low 20s percent with
generally light afternoon winds. Ventilation will take a down
tick...with good to very good over the north and northwest...and
generally fair to good east and south. Fair to good humidity
recoveries overnight...best in the southeast.

Outlook...Wednesday through Friday...shower coverage creeping into
western and central New Mexico high country Wednesday will expand in
coverage through Friday...as moisture working out of Chihuahua and
Sonora swings northward into Arizona and western New Mexico.
Northbound moisture will be helped by generally southerly low level
winds...as minimum humidities rise into the upper 20s and 30s percent by
Friday in a weak cooling trend through the period. Generally good to
very good ventilation conditions each day. Good to excellent
humidity recoveries each overnight.

Shy

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
scattered high cirrus clouds are currently streaming across
central to northern New Mexico just before midnight with middle level
clouds eroding beneath. Breezy to windy conditions will develop
late Sunday morning and into the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30
knots common in many locations. Moisture will be absent over most of
the state. This will inhibit the development of any showers or
thunderstorms Sunday...the only exception being east of a krow to
ktcc line where slightly better moisture may lead to a stray storm
or two.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 92 56 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 85 45 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 87 50 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 87 48 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 84 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 88 51 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 93 55 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 82 41 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 86 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 83 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 82 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 75 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 80 38 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 86 48 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 83 51 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 92 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 87 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 90 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque foothills........... 90 62 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque heights............. 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque valley.............. 95 60 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 62 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 94 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 93 62 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 98 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 90 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 51 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 87 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 89 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 91 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 86 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 90 52 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 92 52 88 49 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 93 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 88 55 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 97 61 91 59 / 5 5 0 0
Roy............................. 93 57 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 98 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 102 63 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 98 63 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 99 64 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 99 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 102 66 102 65 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 94 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 90 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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