Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
602 PM MDT Monday Sep 22 2014
00z taf cycle
scattered showers and thunderstorms moving generally from west to
east will continue into the night hours...ending between 02z and
06z across the west and lingering to 10z across the east. The
strongest thunderstorms will produce MVFR ceilings and outflow to
35-40kt. Expecting MVFR and local IFR ceilings/visibilities along and east of
the Central Mountain chain...though some uncertainty on extent
across extreme east and southeast plains. Low clouds should scour
pout middle to late morning as drier air expands west to west...with
fewer storms expected Tuesday. Those that do develop will favor
the southwest and south central mountains.
Previous discussion...306 PM MDT Monday Sep 22 2014...
short wave trough moving by to the north with another active
evening of weather across northern and central New Mexico. The
trough though will bring some drying to the area Tuesday with
less storm coverage...especially over the northwest half of the
forecast area. A ridge of high pressure will build over nm on
Wednesday and Thursday before getting squeezed by a large West
Coast storm and a weak upper low to the east. This weak upper
low will actually retrograde back toward nm late in the week...
setting up a temporary high over low block. But the big West
Coast system will eventually drive everything to the east as it
barrels across nm late this coming weekend...bringing showers
and cooler temperatures followed by a drying trend. 40
another active evening expected with fairly widespread coverage.
They may not have quite the moisture content as last evenings
storms...but will still be efficient rain makers and bring some
heavy rain to isolated areas. The already saturated ground in our
south central and southeast zones will not need much rain to cause
minor or significant flooding. The evening showers and storms
should diminish after midnight tonight...unlike previous nights.
The upper trough going by to our north will drag drier air into
the region...at least at middle and upper levels. This should result
in less coverage of storms on Tuesday...but there will be at least
a small chance of convection just about everywhere except the far
northwest. The south central and Southwest Mountains will have the
best chances for storms. Rain intensity should be less as well.
High pressure will build sharply over nm Wednesday and Thursday.
The warming at the ground...combined with the lingering low level
moisture will create better instability Wednesday over the east
and over most areas Thursday. This will actually lead to a bit of
an increase in storm coverage these days.
The north to south oriented high pressure ridge will get tilted
to a southwest to northeast ridge axis Thursday and Friday...while
getting squeezed between a strong trough along the West Coast and
a weaker trough over the Great Lakes. This is the same trough that
is coming across nm tonight. Models stall this trough and actually
retrograde it to the Central Plains late in the week. But it and
the high eventually get kicked east as the big West Coast trough
comes inland Friday and crosses nm later in the weekend. This storm
will pull moisture north into the state with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Chj
today will be the last day of widespread wet weather for at least a
few days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the evening...especially across central and eastern areas. This will
again yield excellent humidity recoveries tonight for nearly all
Drying and warming trend commences Tuesday. After the base of the
upper level trough slides by nm tonight...drier middle level air will
be ushered in behind it within northwest flow. Lower level moisture
may not scour out as quickly Tuesday afternoon as was anticipated over
the weekend...but forecast soundings suggest a cap will limit shower
and thunderstorm development for all but perhaps the SW mountains and
perhaps across the NE. Thus...quieter day overall. Temperatures will
rise a few to several degrees...and all areas look to be at or just
above normal. Minimum humidities will trend downward 15 to 25
percent over todays readings. Excellent recoveries are still
expected Tuesday night however.
The upper level high that is building to our west on Tuesday will
amplify further on Wednesday and dry air will continue to filter
into western nm. Enough low level moisture will be around...plus a
bit more instability...to result in a few more spotty storms across
the east. Otherwise...temperatures will remain at or above normal.
Not a lot of change for Thursday...except a few storms will be
possible across the western higher terrain as well.
The next big storm system still looks to move into the western Continental U.S.
And impact nm Friday through the weekend...with increased potential
for shower and thunderstorm activity. With that said...models are
quite a bit different regarding their depiction of how the storm
system will evolve. Storms may increase in coverage as early as
Friday...but the most widespread convection may come on Sunday.
Still low confidence with regards timing and strength of the
system...but reasonable confidence exists in an uptick in storm
coverage during this time frame.
Poor ventilation looks to be a concern across zone 109 and southern
portions of zone 106 on Tuesday. Mainly fair to good ventilation
elsewhere. On Wednesday...widespread poor ventilation is anticipated
for western and central nm thanks to very low transport winds
underneath the eastern portion of the upper high. Only a slight
improvement...perhaps into the fair category...is expected for
Thursday. Ventilation looks to continue to improve later in the week
and into the weekend. 34
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following