Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
518 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
12z taf cycle
VFR all areas with very dry air and hot temperatures. Afternoon breezes
will impact the state before tapering off around sunset.
Previous discussion...329 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015...
drier air will filter over New Mexico from the west today through
Wednesday. Enough moisture may linger for a few stray showers and
thunderstorms along and northeast of the south central mountains
this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico
will help temperatures warm and remain above normal through
Thursday. The weather pattern will shift late in the week and
through the weekend...when a developing area of low pressure over
the West Coast and a strengthening ridge of high pressure over
Texas will draw monsoon-like moisture northward over New Mexico
with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Central and western
areas look favored for wetting precipitation during this
period...when high temperatures will drop to near and below
models are in strong agreement on the upper level pressure pattern
over the desert SW through Monday...lending some confidence to the
Prospect of monsoon-like moisture streaming northward out of the
Gulf of California and over the land of enchantment Friday Onward.
According to the European model (ecmwf)...the upper low developing while sagging
southward along the West Coast May Draw a low level return flow of
moisture into southeast and east central areas with thunderstorms breaking
out as early as Thursday afternoon. Then moisture and favorable
dynamics for precipitation may begin to cross the nm border from
Arizona and Mexico Thursday night.
The upper low on the S California coast is forecast to eject northeastward
across the Great Basin and northern rockies Sunday through Monday
night. It should continue to draw subtropical moisture
northeastward over western and northern nm in the process...as the
upper high lingers over Texas.
the upper ridge breakdown pattern will take hold
today as stronger westerly flow advances eastward out of the Great
Basin. Shallow low level moisture over central and eastern nm will
be scoured out this afternoon as a large scale dry intrusion moves
east across the desert SW. Single digit min relative humidity will be common over
nearly the entire area with temperatures averaging 5 to 10f above normal.
Winds will trend upward with some critical fire weather expected for a
couple hours over the High Plains. Fire growth potential is limited
due to green up and soil moisture content. Poor to fair recoveries
and high Haines will accompany this pattern which will persist into
The upper ridge will then build over Texas while an upper trough
develops southward over Southern California into Friday. This will
allow an overall south to north middle/upper level flow pattern to
develop over nm through at least early next week. This is important
as two well-developed tropical systems roaming the eastern Pacific
attempt to deliver moisture northward into the general circulation.
At this time the first system...Andres...may impact more of Arizona
and western nm with higher humidity...cloud cover...and possible
heavy rains late Friday through Sunday. The next tropical system...
Blanca...may be the more impactful system for nm Monday and Tuesday
as some portion of the feature slides overhead. Lots of uncertainty
still exists however the overall message is below normal temperatures...
higher humidity...generally light winds...and limited fire growth