Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1150 am MDT Sat may 30 2015
18z taf cycle
main ts coverage will be found over the western/central mountains
today. Steering flow will take the storms towards the southeast
and could impact some of the terminal sites for brief periods of
time. Likely ts impacts are at lvs but cant rule out many of the
other sites with exception of gup/fmn. Using vcsh at many of the
sites and will update based on cell development during afternoon.
Gusty outflow wind main concern with gusts up to 35 knots possible.
Abq/aeg/saf certainly has that chance later this afternoon for
outflow wind gust impacts and passing high based showers/isolated ts.
Many of the models Show Low ceiling development across the ec/southeast
plains later tonight. Indicated this potential at lvs/tcc and row.
Most bullish at tcc but may not last as long as some of the models
indicate. Current low ceilings will erode away during the next 1-2
Previous discussion...318 am MDT Sat may 30 2015...
a rather active weather pattern continues through early next
week. The backdoor cold front that pushed through central and
portions of western New Mexico overnight brought the return of
low level moisture to areas west of the Central Mountain chain.
Daytime heating will combine with this moisture to produce
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms to
most mountain ranges. High pressure aloft is forecast to build in
over the state Sunday. Temperatures will warm to near or slightly
above seasonal averages for late may. Enough remaining low level
moisture will combine with the warming temperatures to produce
scattered mainly afternoon and evening mountain showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Much drier air is forecast to
push from west to east across the area Tuesday...continuing
backdoor cold front from near a Taos to abq to Roswell line early
this morning. Convection continues to fire over southern Chaves
County as of this writing. Models continue idea that a rather
limited crop of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today with
the relatively cool low levels and warming temperature aloft. One
exception should be over the SW mountains where surface
convergence associated with the backdoor front combines with
warmer surface temperatures to produce scattered convection. Light northerly
steering flow will make it tough to get showers/storms over the
more stable valleys/basins. Despite an upper level ridge
translating eastward over nm Sunday...surface temperatures warm enough
that both GFS and NAM generate a healthy crop of afternoon and
evening convection over the mountains during the afternoon...moving
it slowly S and southeastward during the evening. Monday looks like a
Carbon copy of Sunday with perhaps a more westerly component to storm
motion as the ridge flattens a bit.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) in good agreement that previously mentioned ridge
shifts east of nm Tuesday. Dry westerly flow aloft takes over most
areas. GFS keeps low level moisture over the southeast plains Tuesday
afternoon for the possibility of a thunderstorm or two. Dryline
is prognosticated to surge westward Tuesday night and then retreats eastward into
Texas Wednesday. A few storms will be possible near the Texas line as it
retreats. A rather strong Lee trough will result in breezy to
windy continues east of the Central Mountain chain each afternoon
Tuesday through Thursday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) in very good agreement
that as the flow backs ahead of a closed low dropping into the
Great Basin Friday...shower and thunderstorm chances return. European model (ecmwf)
is much deeper and farther south with the upper low...keeping a
moist southerly flow aloft over nm through next weekend. GFS is
much more progressive...allowing the westerlies to dry things out
for next weekend.
upper level high pressure to build and dominate
through the weekend...with a breakdown of the upper ridge early in
the work week and a return to drier and windier conditions.
A back door front raced through the eastern plains during the
overnight hours with gap winds into the central valleys ushering in
low level moisture west of the central mountains. Moisture increases
and temperature decreases should extend as far west as the
Continental Divide by middle morning. Precipitation during the
overnight hours favored the eastern plains with strong to severe
thunderstorms resulting in small footprints of heavy rain.
Upper level high pressure over the western states will build
eastward through the weekend with the axis centered over New Mexico
by Sunday. Daytime heating and moisture recycling will support
showers and thunderstorms generally limited to the western and
central higher terrain...with slow movement once developed. With
cooler and more stable air in place across the east...ventilation
will be poor to fair eastern zones today with mainly fair values in
the Rio Grande Valley and good to very good levels elsewhere.
Temperatures to rebound all zones on Sunday with increasing mixing
heights and improved ventilation.
The upper level ridge weakens and shifts to the east Monday into
Tuesday and an upper level trough moves over the western states.
Generally warmer and drier conditions are expected both days with
increasing west to southwest winds. High based showers and
thunderstorms will once again favor the higher terrain on Monday.
Min relative humidity values dip below 15 percent across portions of the northwest
and west central zones on Monday...and over much of the forecast
area by Tuesday. Some spotty critical conditions are possible across
the east Central Plains on Tuesday...with high Haines of 6 most
zones. Very good to excellent ventilation expected all zones.
Broad trough to dominate the west Wednesday through the end of the
work week. Min relative humidity looks to be below 15 percent...with single digit
values common all but the extreme Eastern Plain. High Haines of six
will persist at least through Thursday. Will need to monitor this
period for possible critical conditions.
Extended models not really in agreement on the timing of the trough
and available moisture...thus some uncertainty Friday into the