Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
534 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014
12z taf cycle
upper ridge with patches of cirrus to dominate through 01z.
Patchy br with IFR ceilings possible Pecos Valley from near krow southward
and eastward and in the Moreno Valley until around 16z. Otherwise
Previous discussion...318 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014...
an unseasonably warm pattern will persist through the weekend over
northern and central New Mexico. A ridge of high pressure will
reside over the state today...shifting slightly east into Saturday
with stronger westerly winds aloft arriving on Sunday. Some
locations will approach record highs today and Saturday...namely
in northeastern New Mexico...and by Sunday some stronger surface
breezes will develop along with a few stray showers and
thunderstorms producing some sprinkles in central to western parts
of New Mexico. Temperatures are then expected to cool back close
to average Monday night and Tuesday as a front spills into New
have opted to keep some mention of fog for this morning's forecast
in the lower Pecos and Moreno valleys...although nothing has
developed just yet. Dewpoint depressions are small...so there is
some potential before dawn. As high pressure becomes centrally
established over nm today...expect above normal temperatures with
some potential record highs in a few zones. Light breezes and just
a few high cirrus clouds are expected by the afternoon.
Dome of high pressure slides slightly east Saturday...and pressure
heights will decrease by a few decameters. Southwesterly flow
aloft will still be rather weak Saturday afternoon with a weak
surface trough trying to take shape to the Lee of the sangres.
High temperatures will be fairly comparable to friday's readings
with again a few records in jeopardy.
Some high to middle level moisture will begin encroaching upon
western nm Saturday night into Sunday while flow aloft strengthens
with a west southwest component. Speeds in the 700 mb-500 mb layer are not
quite strong enough to induce Wind Advisory type speeds at the
surface...but some breezy to windy conditions will are still
expected in a warmer than normal and high mixing regime.
Also...some of the meager middle level moisture and sufficient
temperature lapse rates may yield a few sprinkles or even dry
thunderstorms that could locally enhance any gusts in central to
western nm. As far as any dynamics aloft...while the gradient and
flow aloft will be increasing Sunday...the core of any vorticity
lobes associated with the passing trough should stay farther north
into Colorado and beyond.
A trailing lobe of energy may push into the state by Monday. This
could induce a few more showers/storms over the north central to
northeastern zones Monday and Monday night. A cold front would
also spill into the state from the north Monday night...setting
temperatures back closer to average. A drier and more relaxed
westerly flow would prevail on Tuesday and Wednesday with another
brief ridge slated to move over nm by Thursday.
upper ridge prevails today then more zonal flow develops tonight
and strengthens through the weekend. Some cirrus will drift over
the region today. Temperatures through the weekend will be well
above average...and near record highs are possible...especially
over portions of the east where downslope winds will be found. Middle
level moisture increase on Sunday could spark a few dry showers
and storms central and west. A front on Monday will cool highs
down...especially in the east where temperatures will be slightly
below average by Tuesday...as well as keep slight chances for
showers going over portions of the north. Dry weather and
weakening northwest flow aloft is in the outlook for the middle of
Under the ridge today...near record highs are possible at some
localized areas...and ventilation will be only fair to poor many
areas central and west...while much of the east should see good vent
rates. Lee trough starts to strengthen Saturday as do mountain top
winds but winds may not be quite strong enough to reach critical
levels. Relative humidity values in the northeast will range from 10 to 15 percent
though and moderate to high Haines will blanket the east. So can/T
rule out some localized critical conditions mainly northeast quarter
Saturday afternoon especially with the unseasonably warm
Mountain top winds strengthen over the north Sunday but for some
reason...models also trend dew points higher. Not sure why...so
didn/T make many changes. Middle level moisture does increase which
could trigger some isolated dry convection west and central and
forecast Haines is low over all but the far northeast. Surface wind
forecast model wise is lower than what was inherited grid
wise...perhaps due to increased cloud cover. But forecast highs
still well above climatology...so can/T rule out some localized critical
conditions Sunday afternoon as well...with mostly likely areas being
the east slopes sangre Delaware cristo mts to Clines Corners and eastward.
Otherwise vent rates improve Saturday but much more on Sunday.
Downslope winds along the central Montana chain may stay gusty Sunday
night and into Monday but highs start to cool down and forecast
Haines low with some patchy moderate values east. As winds diminish
by Tuesday and Wednesday...so do vent rates to mostly fair or poor.
Highs will rebound to above average by Wednesday...although only by
a few degrees.