Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1157 PM MDT sun Jul 27 2014
will be updating the zone forecast after midnight to remove
mention of the Flash Flood Watch...which will expire at midnight.
Previous discussion...1147 PM MDT sun Jul 27 2014...
06z taf cycle
a very active evening across the region...especially the northeast
plains of New Mexico. A massive complex of storms with cloud tops
near 50kft above ground level will rain out over the area through the early morning
hours. Abundant low level moist upslope flow onto the east slopes
of the sangre Delaware cristo mts will develop an area of low clouds
near 030 around klvs overnight. Farther west...a line of showers
and isolated storms will shift northwest and train over the same area from
near Socorro northwest along the continue dvd to near Grants. Models
expand this area to include much of the Rio Grande Valley and
nearby high terrain. Confidence is very low on this scenario so
not including any tempo groups for precipitation across central/western
areas overnight. Timing of convection tomorrow will be the big
question since today fired much much earlier than model guidance
indicated. Overall it looks like by the end of the day the focus
will end up across east central and southeast New Mexico...and along the
Previous discussion...317 PM MDT sun Jul 27 2014...
as deep monsoon moisture returns to central and northern New
Mexico...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
the rule this evening through Tuesday night. Some drier air will
work into northwestern New Mexico Wednesday...limiting storms
there while the remainder of the area remains active. Another
backdoor front will push moisture back into western New Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday. The active weather pattern will
continue Friday into next weekend as a series of backdoor fronts
push through the region bringing reinforcing shots of deep
warm night/morning set the state for an early and active show this
afternoon and evening. According the 12z local WRF...main circulation
centroid of upper high over Tucumcari at 21z. East to southeasterly surface
flow mainly bringing low level moisture back into the forecast
area. East to southeast steering level flow will sends most storms
slowly to the northwest this afternoon and evening. Debris clouds so far
keeping the NE portion of the state quite but suspect with low 60s
dewpoints pooled over this area that once the clouds clear and
this area warms into the middle and upper 80s and outflows approach
from the west/NW...deep convection will result. No changes planned
to the watch at this point.
NAM and local WRF model picking up on warm core cyclonic
circulation over the bootheel. This feature will likely bring a
round of showers and thunderstorms to the Southwest Mountains and
Catron County late tonight. Increased precipitation chances over
this region after midnight as a result. Another very active day in
store for Monday as this deep monsoon moisture plume continues to
lift northward into all of western New Mexico Monday afternoon and
then into central nm Monday evening. Monday will be a much more
classic type monsoon day with steering flow taking storms north
and northeastward...giving areas that have not done all that well so far
this monsoon season.
For Tuesday...upper high center gets forced south as warm-core short-
waves/vorticity lobes round over the top. Westerly flow aloft that develops
over nm will begin to send the deeper moisture eastward on Tuesday.
Models all indicating that convection will get a relatively early
start and move southeastward around 10kts Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Developing northwest flow aloft brings in some drier air from the
eastern Great Basin into west- central and northwest nm Wednesday. Longer
lived showers and storms should be quite limited there as updrafts
entrain a good amount of the dry air aloft. Northerly flow on east of
the high circulation...however...brings another backdoor cold
front into NE nm Wednesday. This front will send deep moisture
back westward Wednesday night and Thursday.
Upper high center remains west of nm Thursday through next weekend
as backdoor fronts continue to reinforce low level moisture/high
precipitable waters . Expect above average rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day as a result...particularly central
no significant changes made to the gridded forecast. Today remains
the significant transition day to higher humidity and larger wetting
rain footprints associated with thunderstorms. As stated past few days
..upcoming period has the potential of being the most active since
the monsoon began.
As far as rest of today...drier air found across south central
areas...otherwise rising humidity pretty much areawide. Vigorous
back door cold front will quickly transition from the east to the
west tonight. Relative humidity recoveries will go up pretty much areawide. Expect
some pretty strong gap winds along the central mountains this evening.
The area of drier more stable air will shrink even further over south
central/southeast areas on Monday. The main focus for wetting
thunderstorms will be found along the Continental Divide as well as
over the north central mountains humidity values will continue to trend
It appears that concentrated area for wetting rain will shift across
the northern third on Tuesday as the high pressure cells elongates
over southern Arizona/nm into Texas. Northeast plains and sangres should
do really well for rainfall.
Both European model (ecmwf)/GFS showing a drying trend over western areas Wednesday.
This is due to the high pressure area shifting further west and
allowing drier air to entrain into the state from the Great Basin.
Either way...wetting storms...perhaps heavy will be found across the
northeast third to half as another back door cold front pushes in
from the northeast. This front will push westward Wednesday night
and provide higher dewpoints once again to western areas.
Thursday looks to be pretty active with wetting rain potential west
and north. Based on the upper high position to the west...Friday
looks to be pretty active along the central mountains and eastern plains.
Another back door cold front expected during the weekend and would
favor the eastern half to two thirds with wetting rain and another
round of cooler temperatures/higher relative humidity.
Mixing heights will lower due to frontal intrusions during the next
several days although Wednesday/S values come up some due to the
drier air across the west/south.