Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
532 PM MDT sun Sep 21 2014
00z taf cycle
MVFR impacts in showers and thunderstorms forecast through the
taf period. In addition...MVFR ceilings forecast to develop across
the eastern plains outside of convection...with short-lived IFR
conditions possible at krow and klvs. Kgup and kfmn look to be
impacted by convection this evening...with more impacts possible
Monday afternoon and early evening. East wind gusts at kabq are
expected to stay below local aviation weather warning criteria...
but gusts to between 25-30kts likely to persist well into the
evening hours. A general lowering of VFR ceilings forecast at kabq
overnight...with possibility of briefly dipping down into the
MVFR category around sunrise.
Previous discussion...350 PM MDT sun Sep 21 2014...
showers and storms some with heavy rain...will persist through
Monday. An upper level storm system to our west will slowly track
through the central and southern rockies Monday. Monsoon
moisture...along with a sustained easterly upslope flow... will
persist over New Mexico...will combine to produce potential for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Locations which have received
heavy rainfall recently will be most susceptible to flash flooding
along with burn scars. A drier weather pattern will develop by
Tuesday. Chances for showers and storms may increase towards the end
of the work week and over the coming weekend as a weak low pressure
system drifts toward eastern New Mexico and another strong upper low
pressure system moves in from the west.
weather pattern to remain active through Monday before chances for
showers and storms taper off. Added remaining portions of Socorro
and Lincoln counties to the Flash Flood Watch. Overall did not make
a lot or significant changes to the grids...but did increase probability of precipitation
for Monday especially central Montana chain eastward.
Drying may not push in as aggressively as the GFS so hung onto low
probability of precipitation in the northwest a bit longer. Also GFS indicates more drying in the
low levels by Tuesday night so may not have low temperatures low
enough if this model is the one that works out.
Chances for convection may increase again after Wednesday. Models
indicate the current upper low will move through The Rockies then
slow down and even retrograde around the building upper high
circulation...which might increase chances for precipitation from
the central Montana chain eastward. This possibility covered in the grids
Another very deep trough still forecast to move into the West Coast
this weekend. This could increase chances for precipitation again
over much of the region.
active day continues across the state. Moderate to heavy rain will
persist across portions of the east Central Plains through the rest
of the afternoon...and may expand northward through the late afternoon
and evening. Widespread wetting rains are expected. Meanwhile... lift
ahead of the upper low moving NE over Nevada will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
evening across western and perhaps central areas. As the trough axis
comes across the state overnight and Monday morning...dry air will
move into northwest nm...while showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of
the trough axis across central and eastern nm. Thus...a pretty wet
period on tap for the next 24-30 hours...especially for the
southeast half of the area. High humidities will be the rule...while
temperatures remain near or below normal through Monday. Ventilation
will also decrease Monday...with poor to fair ventilation prevailing
across much of the central and southern areas.
The drying and warming trend will begin Tuesday as flow aloft
becomes northwesterly due to an upper level ridge building over Arizona.
Drier air will continue to filter into the state limiting storm
potential. A few storms may develop across the northeast or across
zone 109...but coverage will be far less. Ventilation will change
little from Monday.
The upper ridge will continue to build over Arizona and western nm
Wednesday and Thursday. Residual moisture may spark a few
storms...mainly across the higher terrain and perhaps portions of
the eastern plains. Meanwhile...models are now forecasting the the
aforementioned upper low to slide over and around the high and
actually retrograde back toward nm by Friday morning. Not totally
sold on that part of the solution...yet. Otherwise...will still be
pockets of poor to fair ventilation Wednesday and Thursday due to
light transport winds.
Models continue to suggest a deep trough or closed low moving across
the western Continental U.S. Friday through the weekend. There are still timing
and strength inconsistencies...but another round of showers and
thunderstorms may be on tap.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following zones...