Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1051 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours.
Previous discussion...258 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015...
tonight will be colder...with lows dipping into the single digits
and teens across much of northern and western New Mexico. Below
normal temperatures and very dry conditions are forecast to
persist through Thursday morning. A short-lived warming trend
going into Friday will take temperatures back to near normal prior
to a weekend storm system. At this time...potential for widespread
precipitation this weekend is low with areas east of the Central
Mountain chain favored. Daytime temperatures will trend back below
normal for the weekend.
a very cold/dry airmass is overtaking the region and will result
in below normal temperatures persisting into Thursday morning.
Otherwise...windy conditions will continue tonight and into
Tuesday over the peaks and along the east slopes of the Central
Mountain chain and adjacent Highlands...especially between Clines
Corners...Las Vegas and Raton Pass. A reinforcing cold airmass
will come down Tuesday...pushed through by a shortwave trough
rotating around the departing upper low circulation. This
reinforcement will allow below normal temperatures to persist into
Thursday morning...with many western and north central locales
dipping into the single digits. Locations like angle fire will
likely see negative single digits Tuesday morning through Thursday
morning. An upper level ridge axis will move overhead Thursday
and signal a short-lived warming trend...sending daytime temperatures
back to near normal by Friday. Air stagnation issues are likely
Thursday into Friday morning with stubborn temperature inversions...
especially in the Rio Grande Valley.
The next shot at precipitation comes over the weekend with an
upper level low. That said...the 12z GFS trended back to a
drier...faster and less closed-off low solution relative to the
00z run. The 12z European model (ecmwf) continues to show a closed upper low
passage with decent quantitative precipitation forecast across the northern mountains and eastern
plains. Forecaster confidence on precipitation potential this weekend
still low...although a wetter solution does seem to fit better
with the impacts of El Nino and the past couple of systems. The
12z European model (ecmwf) also shows a more potent closed low and backdoor cold front
combo for the middle of next week...with the upper low moving over
the bootheel...a favorable location for much of our area to get
poor to fair ventilation rates Tuesday will drop to poor areawide
Wednesday through Friday.
Very dry airmass in place will allow temperatures across western New
Mexico to plummet tonight. Strong west to northwest winds near mountain top
level will keep temperatures in the northern mountains from
bottoming out near current dewpoint temperatures but as winds
subside Tuesday...the northern mountain valleys will get into the
mix Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Poor to fair ventilation rates
Tuesday will decrease to poor areawide wednedsay through Friday.
Strength of valley/basin temperature inversions will increase
through the week as winds decrease and temperatures aloft gradually
Latest models remain at odds for the coming weekend. The more
consistent run to run European model (ecmwf)...remains farther south and more moist
with a weekend upper level trough/closed low. European model (ecmwf) precipitation (mainly
in form of snow) forecast favors northern and particularly eastern
New Mexico Saturday and Saturday night...which is consistent with
climate model forecasts for the month of December.