Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
606 am MDT Sat Mar 15 2014
patchy and dense fog is increasing in coverage this morning across
central and western areas...and it will continue until middle
morning. Locations that received accumulating precipitation last
evening will be favored for fog development.
Previous discussion...546 am MDT Sat Mar 15 2014...
12z taf cycle
a very challenging day is on tap for aviation. Moderate rainfall
from Friday evening and light winds this morning have left patchy
dense fog around the Rio Grande Valley into the Estancia basin
and nearby Highlands. Winds and very dry air aloft are increasing
so as soon as mixing begins fog will dissipate quickly. Based on
web cams around abq metropolitan it is only near the sunport and latest
observation have come up to 3sm. Winds will increase dramatically by late
morning and early afternoon out of the northwest and become strong by
middle to late afternoon all areas. An aww is a certainty at kabq
with gusts to 35 kts+. Showers over the plains by middle day will
enhance mixing thus making winds and bldu even worse. All areas
will clear out this evening however winds will remain strong
over the east.
Previous discussion...333 am MDT Sat Mar 15 2014...
as one storm system exits another upper level trough will dive south-southeast
over the forecast area today keeping precipitation in the forecast
east of the Continental Divide...and especially from the northern
mountains eastward. The focus for precipitation will shift southward
across central and eastern areas this evening before the second
storm system exits southeastward after midnight. Strong winds will
be the main weather concern this afternoon with gusts from 50 to
60 miles per hour across western zones and gusts to around 50 miles per hour across the
plains. The strong winds out west should end with sunset...but the strong
winds across the plains should persist through at least midnight.
Breezy to windy conditions are expected to redevelop Monday...when
widespread fire weather concerns are possible. Light precipitation
chances may increase again Tuesday and Tuesday night along and
east of the northern mountains.
models show precipitation chances lingering through this morning
across the southeast as our first upper low exits. Already radar imagery
early this morning shows precipitation winding down elsewhere.
Later in the morning the next upper level system and surface cold
front should begin to generate some new areas of precipitation
from the northern mountains eastward. An upper level low pressure
system prognosticated to shift quickly southward across the northern and
central mountains this afternoon...then southeastward across the
southeast plains this evening...will steer the polar jet stream over
western nm. Meanwhile...a 1004 mb surface low on new mexicos
eastern border will keep the surface pressure gradient tight. The
net impact should be wind gusts in the 50 to 60 miles per hour range across
much of western nm. Farther east across the plains...strong winds
will be driven mainly by the surface pressure gradient and a Stout
back door cold front that should reach Clayton by late morning.
Winds out west will weaken with the loss of atmospheric mixing
this evening...but the surface pressure gradient will remain
strong across the plains throughout the night and possibly into
Sunday morning. Will issue high wind warnings and wind advisories
with this mornings package. Although the advisory will end at
midnight across the plains...there is a strong possibility that
later shifts will need to extend it throughout the night and
maybe into Sunday morning.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will sink southeastward over nm
Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will rebound Sunday out
west...but brisk north winds will keep readings cool across the
After 7 to 23 degrees of warming Monday...an upper level trough
crossing the northern and central rockies will send another cold
front southeastward through the state Tuesday causing temperatures
to fall a few to 18 degrees again Tuesday. The system could
trigger some showers over and east of the northern mountains
through Tuesday night. Ahead of the system winds aloft will
strengthen again Monday leading to fire weather concerns. Wind
gusts may peak near 50 miles per hour again Monday just east of the central
Models suggest another weak ridge of high pressure aloft will
cross Wednesday and Wednesday night. Then...wind speeds may try
to strengthen again Thursday as another upper level trough passes
north of nm causing winds aloft to strengthen.
windy to very windy conditions on tap today as a potent dry slot
shifts over central and western nm. As was mentioned on the day
shift Friday the critical fire area has been trimmed quite a bit.
Coverage of wetting precipitation was quite substantial Friday evening
for much of the remainder of the watch area except for the extreme
southern section of the middle Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures on latest
guidance have trended even a little cooler today putting all of
the zone below normal. Will cancel watch for today.
Strong winds will taper off this evening over central/western nm but
continue over the east through the overnight. There will be some light
precipitation in the east however dry air sliding in behind the cold front
will create primarily very gusty showers. A rumble of thunder is
also possible. Recoveries tonight will trend much lower than this
morning for the west and remain very good across the east. Sunday
will be a tranquil day with upper flow decreasing and warming temperatures.
Monday still looks to be the greatest threat for widespread critical
conditions. Ridge top winds will increase as flow turns west and a
dry intrusion works over the area. Strong downslope flow will trend
temperatures much warmer most areas...especially the east. Haines values
still prognosticated at 5 and even 6 for a few areas. Several hours of
single digit relative humidity values are expected for the east. Winds will remain
breezy into Monday night and recoveries will be poor to fair. Tuesday
will be a wild card day for critical conditions depending on how
far south an upper wave moves into the state. If it remains well
north then more critical conditions are possible...however if it
shifts farther south then cooler temperatures and clouds will limit the
The remainder of the week looks relatively tranquil with warming
temperatures and light to moderate dry westerly flow over the state.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for the
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for
the following zones...nmz527>538.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for the