Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
517 am MDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
12z taf cycle
an upper level trough will be exiting New Mexico through the late
morning. Some remnant clouds and showers will be possible in the
north central to northeastern sections of the state through the
late morning. The main aviation impacts will be over the northern
peaks through 02/1600utc where some mountain obscurations will be
possible. Any showers will be light...posing little reduction to
visibility or ceilings. Skies will clear by 02/1800utc. Wind gusts
of 15 to 30 knots will also be common...especially in the
northeastern to east Central Plains of New Mexico.
Previous discussion...315 am MDT Thursday Oct 2 2014...
disturbance exiting northern New Mexico this morning with lingering
slight chances for showers north central and northeast and breezy
conditions. Highs today will be cooler and below average most areas.
Lows tonight and Friday night may drop to near freezing or below for
approximately the northwest third of the state. Temperatures
moderate to average or above values Saturday and into the middle of
next week as the state remains under dry northwest flow aloft...
although a weak frontal passage or two are possible. One longer term
forecast model suggests middle to late next week could see increasing
chances for showers but other models remain dry.
disturbance exiting northern New Mexico early this morning with some
lingering clouds and light showers north central and northeast.
Northwest to north breezes will usher in a cooler and drier air mass
today...which will allow low temperatures by early Friday morning to
fall to some of the colder readings seen so far since the Spring.
Latest temperature guidance still has some variability how cold it
will get for some locales tonight...enough to make or break a freeze
watch. Guidance also a little cooler for Friday night overall...in
the wake of a reinforcing cold front...so some areas may see another
round of near freezing temperatures near dawn Saturday or shortly
thereafter. Therefore will go ahead and reissue the previous Special
Weather Statement for the time being.
Otherwise dry northwest flow aloft into the early to middle portion
of next week. There may be an occasional frontal passage...one of
which comes Saturday night/Sunday...but doesn/T appear to be any big
cool Downs or significant moisture increases at this time.
Temperatures moderate to near normal or above staring Saturday from
their cooler values today through Friday night. The European model (ecmwf) still
suggests the middle to late week period next week could see increasing
chances for showers but the GFS remains dry.
an upper level trough will exit The Rockies and shift over the
plains today. The pattern through early next week will be defined by
high pressure over the Baja California and greater southwest region with
northwesterly flow aloft trying to weaken over nm. Gusty conditions
have been observed overnight as the cold front spilled through the
area...and winds will remain stiff into the early
afternoon...especially over the plains. These will gradually relax
by late afternoon. Any lingering showers will dissipate over north
central to northeastern nm by the late morning. Temperatures will
fall short of early October averages today...but drier trends in the
dewpoints...both at the surface and aloft...will still yield minimum
relative humidity below 15 percent in west central parts of nm today. Ventilation
rates will still be fair due to the breezy conditions.
As northwest flow persists over nm tonight...a trailing clipper will
ride the coattails of the aforementioned trough...diving from the
northern rockies into the Great Plains by Friday morning. This will
drive another back door cold front into northeast nm. Wind forecast
had been increased and refined the past couple of shifts...and so
this trend has been captured well with minimal changes or
alterations needed this morning. In addition to the gusty northerly
surface winds...the front will impede any warm up in the eastern
zones Friday with highs again staying below average. Some relatively
higher dewpoints in the 30s to 40s will pool near and ahead of the
front in the Pecos Valley...mostly south of I-40...and in the west
the starkly drier dewpoints and depressions aloft will keep relative humidity below
15 percent. Poor ventilation will also be a concern for many zones
Into Saturday a subtle speed maximum or jet aloft will work into nm with
a ripple embedded in the northwesterly flow. This feature will have
no moisture to work with...and skies should remain mostly clear.
Look for surface/20ft winds to veer more southerly in the
plains...and while areas west of the Rio Grande will still retain
northwesterly winds...the temperatures are still expected to rise
Another surface front will slide into the eastern plains Sunday
morning. Any temperature setback from this front will essentially be
inconspicuous...but the wind shift will be apparent. Northwesterly
flow will relax more into Monday...and by Tuesday the remnants of
the Baja California ridge will be folding over nm. There is potential for a
weak Pacific trough to take shape by late next week...something the
European model is leaning toward more-so than the GFS model at this
point. This could track into nm with some moisture...but confidence
is currently very low in this scenario.