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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
559 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

12z taf cycle
all northern and central nm taf sites will have at least a slight
chance for ts/rain showers today...with the best chance at kgup as scattered to
numerous cells develop over west central and SW parts of the forecast
area during the afternoon and evening. Mostly wet microbursts are
expected with erratic wind gusts around 40 knots possible. Like
yesterday...a cluster of storms will likely make a run for kaeg
and kabq from the SW during the late afternoon and early
evening...perhaps reaching ksaf. Most cells should move toward the
NE at 10 to 15 miles per hour...except for spottier and faster moving storms
on the east plains. Some rain showers and a few ts will probably persist
into the late night hours west of the Rio Grande to the Arizona border.
Increased coverage of convection is expected Friday.



Previous discussion...321 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015...
a wetter pattern is on tap through Saturday as deep moisture surges
north ahead of a tropical storm developing in the eastern Pacific.
Temperatures will trend cooler with highs below average over much of
central and western New Mexico. The most widespread activity is
expected Friday and Saturday with locally heavy rainfall. Drier air
will attempt to work into the northern half of New Mexico Sunday to
Tuesday...suppressing storms into southern New Mexico. A back
door cold front will arrive over eastern New Mexico Wednesday with
cooler temperatures and increasing storm chances once again.


sweeping changes possible to a drier than expected pattern in the
medium and extended range. It is surprising to see such a dramatic
change after consistent trends in models over the past 5 days.
However...will be conservative in making too much change just yet.

In the near term...favorable moisture advection and upper level
dynamics are evolving for locally heavy rainfall today through
Saturday. A deep tap of 100-150 percent of normal precipitable water is surging north
into nm from tropical depression 14. Surface dewpoints over southern
nm still rising through the middle to upper 50s...with a few 60s in far
southeastern Arizona. The latest GOES derived winds confirm a 50 to 70 knots
upper jet along the western periphery of the moisture field. This is
expected to strengthen further into Saturday as an upper trough on
the West Coast slides east. The latest Storm Prediction Center sseo and local 5km WRF
show a robust area of convection firing up along the continue Divide
today then advancing east toward the middle and lower Rio Grande
Valley this evening. An even stronger and more dynamically forced
area of convection is expected Saturday over central and western
nm. This appears to be the main threat window for heavy rainfall
and possible flash flooding. Areas in the San Juans may pick up
some very beneficial rainfall with very moist SW upslope flow
through Saturday night.

An unseasonably strong 564dm 500 mb low taking shape within the Great
Basin through Saturday is still shown to eject across the northern
rockies by Sunday...but now drags much drier air than previously
shown into the northern half of nm through Tuesday. This is more in
line with a couple previous runs of the European model (ecmwf). Trended probability of precipitation lower
for much of the area. Some return flow is shown Wednesday however
a stronger positively tilted trough pattern over the northern
rockies may suppress activity into far southern nm.



Fire weather...
an upper level low pressure system will drop southward along the
northwest coast today and Friday strengthening the monsoon moisture
surge over western nm. In general...Friday and Friday evening look
like a wetter period with broad coverage of 0.25 to 0.75 inch rain
amounts across the Continental Divide region. Far eastern areas will
be the least favored for precipitation through the end of the work week
with spottier areas of rain accumulation.

The upper low on the West Coast is forecast to track slowly eastward
across the Great Basin Saturday...then to pickup speed as it ejects
northeastward across the northern rockies on Sunday. This should
shift the robust monsoon moisture plume eastward spreading better
precipitation chances to include the eastern plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. In the wake of the upper low models bring
drier air in from the west with the GFS...European model (ecmwf) and now also the
Canadian model favoring southern areas for a chance/slight chance of
showers and storms on Sunday and Monday. A weak back door cold front
is forecast to dip into the plains early Monday morning...but it
looks dry with only a few degrees of cooling across the northeast

Tuesday through Wednesday of next week the GFS...European model (ecmwf) and Canadian
models agree on centering the upper level high pressure system south
of New Mexico with upper level troughs passing quickly eastward
across the northern and central rockies. However...the models
disagree on the depth and timing of these troughs. This lends some
uncertainty to the details of the extended forecast. The GFS
suggests some modest monsoon moisture will take the circuitous Route
around the upper high and spread back over northern areas with an
increase in thunderstorm activity again...especially with the
arrival of a somewhat moist back door cold front to the plains
Tuesday night into Wednesday. On the other hand...the European model (ecmwf) and
Canadian solutions are drier with smaller precipitation chances
favoring the southern high terrain and far eastern areas in
association with the back door cold front.

Otherwise...high temperatures are expected to trend downward through
the end of the work week as precipitation and cloud cover become
more widespread. Some warming will then be possible through the
weekend...especially the latter half of the weekend as drier air
arrives. Cooling will then be possible with the cold fronts mainly
in the east next week. Today through Saturday...the better moisture
and cooler air over western areas should result in some pockets of
poor ventilation.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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