Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
715 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015
adjusted evening pop grid based on recent radar and model trends.
Also scaled back probability of precipitation after midnight...except for a slight
increase across the northeast. Tweeked sky grids...too.
Previous discussion...554 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015...
00z taf cycle
an active evening through around 03z before conditions improve to
VFR all areas. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with local heavy rain and hail will favor
areas from Los Alamos to Santa Fe and from Belen south to Socorro
through sunset. Middle level clouds will hang around through 06z before
clouds thin/clear overnight. Tuesday will be a drier day with
only a few afternoon gusty virga showers expected over the high
terrain...particularly along and east of the continue dvd.
Previous discussion...321 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015...
a disturbance aloft is currently passing just south of The Four
Corners region and into western New Mexico...bringing additional
showers and thunderstorms to parts of the state. The northwestern
half of the state will remain the favored area for precipitation
into the evening with showers and storms waning steadily after
dark. By Tuesday...a weak ridge of high pressure will move over
the land of enchantment...limiting showers and storm coverage
while allowing temperatures to rebound a few degrees. Another wet
period will then be established for eastern New Mexico by
Wednesday night and Thursday with abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture
short wave trough can be seen on water vapor imagery...trekking
south of The Four Corners and advecting some upper level forcing
into nm. Daytime heating has again destabilized the boundary layer
with scattered to numerous showers and storms redeveloping this
afternoon...favoring the northwestern third of the state. Cooler
than normal temperatures are also persisting...and breezes have
been light to moderate. As the wave shifts into the eastern parts
of nm late this evening and the atmosphere decouples...showers and
storms should quickly wane and decrease in coverage.
For Tuesday short wave ridging moves over nm with rising pressure
heights. Enough remnant boundary layer moisture and instability
will be present to initiate a few showers and
thunderstorms...mostly over the higher terrain where daytime
heating will induce weak...but sufficient localized upslope flow
to aid development. Temperatures will also respond upward due to
the rising pressure heights/thickness values. Tuesday will
actually be the first day in a while where temperature readings
are within a couple degrees of seasonal averages across the
entire forecast area.
The flow aloft will begin backing southwesterly on Wednesday in
response to a longer wave trough moving inland off of the
Pacific. A meager coverage of convective activity or
precipitation is expected during the daytime Wednesday...but
things will trend wetter by Wednesday night as surface return flow
from the Gulf of Mexico draws in moisture. This will lead to an
outbreak of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms in
the southeastern zones of the forecast area Wednesday
night...becoming more widespread across the east into Thursday.
From there the westerly flow aloft relaxes over the American
southwest and Southern Plains...and the focus for precipitation
will turn to surface features...including additional moisture
intrusions. A significant back door cold front would be the first
reinforcement for late Friday. This moisture would be recycled for
decent crops of storms over the upcoming weekend.
A weak...and fairly ill-defined...upper high will then try to
establish close to nm early next week. Attention will be drawn
farther south in the Baja California region where a tropical cyclone could be
upper level shortwave over southern nm this morning will exit
eastward...but additional energy will swing into northwest nm
today. As a result...showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the northwest half or so of the area this afternoon. Wetting rains
may be more spotty. Elsewhere...winds may be breezy...especially
across the Central Highlands. Winds will diminish after
sunset...and good to excellent relative humidity recoveries are
Zonal flow is expected on Tuesday...and overall...shower and
thunderstorm activity will be less than today. Still expecting
storms over the northern mountains...and perhaps the east slopes of
the sangre Delaware cristo mountains if a weak wind shift nudges up to the
area. Otherwise...humidities will trend downward...but will stay
above 20 percent for most areas.
As the next system approaches nm from the west on Wednesday and Wednesday
night...low level south to south-southeasterly flow across the plains will draw up
Gulf moisture once again...and may result in storms across the east
Central Plains as early as Wednesday evening. As the upper level system moves
across nm on Thursday...more convection is expected from the Central
Mountain chain eastward. Meanwhile...much drier air should filter into
western and perhaps central nm Wednesday and Thursday. In fact...daytime
humidities should fall below 15 percent. Though winds will be
breezy...especially Wednesday...they will remain below critical criteria.
Nonetheless...Haines values of 6 are expected each day.
Another back door cold front will enter the northeast plains
Friday...and continue to slide southward through the plains Friday
night. It looks like it will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain
chain...if not Friday night...then Sat night. Otherwise...look for
showers and thunderstorms to continue across at least the eastern
Otherwise...look for temperatures to remain at or below normal for
the next 7 days. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with most
areas within a few degrees of normal for late may. Ventilation will
be good to excellent...except on Friday and Saturday across the
northeast where poor to fair values are expected behind the front.