Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
607 am MDT sun Jul 13 2014
12z taf cycle
middle level clouds and a line of showers associated with a back
door front currently increasing across the northern tier of the
state. The front will make additional southward progress during
the day...reaching a position near the Interstate 40 corridor.
Thus...the focus for thunderstorms and showers will be across the
northeast quadrant of the state...with continued afternoon and
evening convection over the western and south Central High terrain.
Expect periods of MVFR ceilings and mountain obscurations across
the north this morning and spreading in area during the day...with
MVFR visibilities most likely with moderate to heavy rain cores.
Showers to continue during the overnight hours especially central
and northeast zones.
Previous discussion...352 am MDT sun Jul 13 2014...
hoisting Flash Flood Watch for sangre Delaware cristos east through the
northeast Highlands to Texas line and south as far as San Miguel
County for this afternoon ND most of the evening. Pretty good
moisture and weak upslope flow environment for some heavy to
perhaps localized flash flooding potential. Weak front from a
little west of Raton to about Tucumcari should make a little more
progress to the south before mostly washing out later afternoon or
tonight. At least one and perhaps two other back door fronts to
replenish moisture through Wednesday or Thursday for perhaps
another flash flood potential...mainly portions of east half of
Flash Flood Watch to be issued for good portion of NE nm...sangres
east to Texas line...not long after after this time shortened
discussion GOES out. Fairly unimpressive back door front or
convection aided boundary from near tcc to a bit west of rtn as of
this writing. Still it does seem just a bit faster than most model
guidance currently. Feature looks to largely fade away later this
afternoon or early evening as surface flow becomes mainly southeast and S across east
half to two thirds of nm. That keeps some moisture recharge
continuing. Theta-E maxima expands to cover much of northwest half of
state and more or less overlaps what is left of the Post frontal
environment this afternoon and evening. Cape maximized more or less in the
NE...though not terribly high and lifted indices in -2 to -5 Li
range over roughly same area. Supportive parameters not quite as
strongly focused over same areas as would be best...but enough so
that they seem to support watch issuance.
Storm coverage may flag a bit between Monday night and Tuesday...but
another back door push or two still looks in the cards for much of
east and perhaps central nm for the late Tuesday to Wednesday night
period...which may necessitate another watch potential...but too
far out and unfocused to issue at this time. After Thursday...models in
pretty good agreement that monstrous middle/upper high to build over
some part of nm...drying things out and heating things up even
more. So hopefully every local can get enough rain to weather...so
to speak...the onset of dessicating nemesis...the sequel.
after a general downtrend in wetting rain the last several days...
moisture and chances of precipitation will increase today with an
active period in place through the middle of the work week. Extended
models then hint at gradual drying for the end of the week...
A shift in the large scale pattern is currently underway as upper
level ridging builds over the western states as an unseasonably
strong upper low...currently over central Canada...heads for the
Great Lakes region. The monsoon plume should remain in place across
the extreme west...enhanced a bit by an easterly wave...with a
series of back door fronts on tap for the east.
The first of these fronts is currently pushing into the northeast...
ushering in cooler temperatures and low level moisture. Thus..the
area from the north central mountains to the northeast plains will
be a focus area for wetting rain today...with convection also
expected over the western and south Central High terrain. Not sure
about gap winds into the Central Valley...but east to southeast flow
will extend to the Continental Divide...increasing low level
moisture in central and western zones.
The next back door front looks to move into the northeast midday
Monday. It looks to be a bit stronger...with another chance for gap
winds Monday night and increased low level moisture to the Arizona
border. Best chances for wetting rain on Monday remain over the
sangres and adjacent Highlands...and over western and north central
terrain on Tuesday...though precipitation is possible most
Yet another back door front is forecast for Wednesday and looks to
be enhanced by an upper level disturbance in the northwest flow
aloft. Another round of gap winds is likely...with continued chances
of wetting rain most locations and especially across the Central
High terrain and adjacent Highlands.
Though moist east to southeast flow will persist across the eastern
plains though the end of the week...extended models depict drier air
into the northwest starting on Thursday as the upper high builds
over southwest New Mexico. High Haines of 5 to 6 is possible over
the northwest on Thursday and Friday.
Overnight relative humidity recoveries to be good to excellent areawide through
Wednesday night...with some areas of fair recoveries over the
northwest plateau and central valleys possible starting Thursday
night. Periods of poor to fair ventilation are possible through much
of the week...starting with northern zones today and southwest zones
on Monday and Tuesday...poor to fair values across the northeast
again on Wednesday and Thursday.
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the