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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
727 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

an impressively dry atmosphere on the 00z kabq radiosonde observation with light
surface winds suggests min temperatures will be well below the guidance
numbers overnight. Surface dewpoints have fallen into the low
teens many areas which is nearly 20 degrees cooler than this time
last night. So despite record to near record temperatures today there
will be some very impressive diurnal ranges. Was not confident
enough for freeze warnings at kfmn and for the Estancia valley
but some areas may get close.



Previous discussion...546 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015...
00z taf cycle
ridging will continue to create a benign weather situation through
the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail.



Previous discussion...341 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015...
very warm and dry conditions will continue until late-day
Thursday when a strong backdoor cold front will drop into eastern
New Mexico Thursday afternoon and through the remainder of the
area Thursday night. Strong East Canyon winds will develop into
the Albuquerque metropolitan just before midnight Thursday night and
continue through the day Friday. The backdoor cold front will
combine with an upper low over Southern California to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over western New Mexico Friday
and over western and central areas of the state Saturday. The
unsettled weather pattern will continue Sunday into early next


dry northerly flow aloft continues this afternoon as an unseasonably
strong upper level ridge remains over Arizona extending nwwd into the
southern Great Basin. A near Carbon copy of today is on tap Wednesday
as the ridge shifts slightly eastward. Ridge axis finally shifts east
of nm Thursday. Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level
closed low will begin to transport middle and upper level
subtropical moisture northeastward into SW nm Thursday. A slight chances
for shower and thunderstorms remains on track for Thursday
afternoon but they will be mainly on the dry side with low level
moisture lacking until Thursday night. Main story Thursday night
will be the strong backdoor cold front forecast to plow through
northestern nm Thursday afternoon and through the remainder of the area
Thursday night. Strong East Canyon winds appear likely into the
middle Rio Grande Valley Thursday night as nam12 progging an Ely
wind speed maximum of 40kts right over the top of the sandias combines
with a strong surface pressure gradient to generate east winds in the
abq metropolitan of 30-40 miles per hour with gusts to 50 miles per hour possible. Southeast east
winds at Santa Fe and Los Alamos could get rather gusty too as
the same middle level speed maximum moves over these areas.

GFS trending slightly drier for Friday through early next week
but the overall upper level evolution is similar. European model (ecmwf)...
however...remains the wetter model...bringing up a slug of
moisture/precipitation into western and central nm Friday night and Saturday
morning. Kept the forecast as is...more in line with the more run
to run consistent European model (ecmwf). Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree that Sunday will
be somewhat of a down day...with showers and storms primarily confined
to western and north-central areas. Both models continue to forecast a
trailing upper level trough translating eastward through nm Monday.
Monday still looking like it could be the day with the most
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Breezy to windy
conditions will accompany the precipitation as surface low pressure deepens
over southeast Colorado.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue with bringing down another backdoor cold
front Tuesday night. Favored area for precipitation will be areas
from the east slopes of the sangres east across the NE
plains...shifting south to the southeast plains late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. If the GFS is close to being right...the
airmass behind this front could be cold enough to bring light
snow accumulation to the sangre Delaware cristo peaks.



Fire weather...
a strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain over the forecast
area through Wednesday night...then begin to break down Thursday as
an upper level low pressure system moves inland over S California. Ahead of
the trough Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures will rise around
10 to 15 degrees above normal across the forecast area. This will
equate to near record warmth along and west of the Central Mountain
chain. Moisture will advect northward over the nm/Arizona border Thursday
through Saturday as the storm system weakens into an upper level
trough and ejects northeastward across the north and central rockies.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Thursday
across the western portion of the forecast area...but moisture
should be limited enough by then for little or no rain to reach the
ground. Wetting precipitation chances will gradually improve out
west Thursday night through Saturday...and spread to include central
areas. A gusty back door cold front will also arrive Thursday and
push all the way to the Arizona border by that evening. The strongest
gusts could reach 50 miles per hour in East Canyon wind prone portions of the Rio
Grande Valley.

Just as the first upper low passes north of nm...a second one will dig
into the Great Basin Saturday night and Sunday. It will then eject
east northeastward across The Four Corners region Sunday night and
Monday...and pass eastward over east Colorado and east nm as an upper level
trough Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This will keep
showers...thunderstorms and High Mountain snow showers in the
forecast mainly over central and western areas with good coverage of
wetting precipitation probable across the Continental Divide region
of northwest nm. Spottier and smaller wetting footprints will be possible
elsewhere. SW winds will become breezy across northeast areas
Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon due mainly to a surface
trough that will develop in the Lee of the southern rockies.

Otherwise...high temperatures will trend downward Friday through Sunday
before stabilizing around normal early next week. Unstable Haines
around 5 will also trend downward into the weekend. Some pockets of
poor ventilation will be found Wednesday through Saturday...but
overall ventilation improvement is expected Sunday into early next



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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