Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
346 am MDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Synopsis...
upper level high pressure will be broadly placed over much of the
south central to western parts of the Continental United States
while a moist airmass remains entrenched over New Mexico. Another
round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected today with some storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall and perhaps flash flooding...especially in north central
to northwestern parts of New Mexico. Sufficient moisture will be
on hand for another active thunderstorm day on Sunday. By Monday
and Tuesday...some drier air could filter into the
state...lowering the probability for precipitation.

&&

Discussion...
another tricky forecast is in the works for today with regard to
pinpointing heavy rainfall threats. Have opted to hoist another
Flash Flood Watch for today and this evening...encompassing the
north central to northwestern zones where highest confidence for
widespread storm coverage is. Precipitable waters may have lowered a tenth or
two of an inch...but the atmosphere is still moist and should
support scattered to numerous storms with locally heavy
downpours and more training cells anticipated. Juxtaposition of
highest Theta-E values and proximity of a weakness in the broader
high pressure aloft should steer the most storm activity into the
northwestern to north central zones. While cells are anticipated
to be more scattered or perhaps even isolated into the east
central to northeastern plains...the soils have been much more
saturated here due to hefty and fairly widespread rainfall the
past few days with more ongoing currently. Was very tempted to
expand the watch to these eastern areas for this reasoning...but
this would be somewhat contradictory to the lower pop values in
place now. Day shift may need to consider expansion.

The NAM model paints copious amounts of convection for
Sunday...primarily over climatologically favored high terrain
of northern and western nm. The GFS retains more continuity with
past runs...showing a slight decrease in storm coverage due to
meager reductions in moisture. The high would be consolidating
more on Sunday...centering toward southern nm while any reduction
in precipitable waters or overall atmospheric moisture content would be subtle.
Have continued with high probability of precipitation...and the locally heavy rain threat
will have to be evaluated closely again.

Into Monday...drier air that is currently over the eastern Pacific
is forecast to shift eastward into nm. The NAM has become very
bullish with this drying trend...reducing precipitable waters rapidly down to
0.5 inch in many zones. Have not fully jumped on board with
this...and have left some isolated/scattered probability of precipitation in the forecast
with surface dewpoints just above MOS guidance.

Into the remainder of next week...models overall seem to be drier
with the high becoming more symmetrical while orbiting nm. Not
until Thursday or Friday when a Pacific low moves inland would
there be a better connection to the subtropical moisture plume
farther south. This would suggest a recharge of moisture into nm
and higher probability of precipitation by late next week...but the forecast models seem
to be lacking in run-to-run continuity with regards to the
strength and track of the Pacific low and this will dictate how
our moisture intrudes...if at all.

52

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft combined with abundant moisture will continue to
lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms with wetting rain
today through Sunday. Cell motion today and Sunday should be mainly
to the northeast and east. A disturbance on Sunday/Monday riding
over the ridge will flatten it...and is forecast to bring some drier
air into the western side of the state Monday. Drier and warmer
conditions forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday...and models are now
trending drier both days than previously indicated. The upper high
center will drift back to the east of New Mexico late next
week...leading to a return of the monsoon plume of moisture. The
plume could arrive as soon as next Thursday night or Friday...with
moisture spreading over the north and west next weekend. As a
result...showers and storms with wetting rain will increase in
number.

Models have some consistency in the drier dew points forecast for
Monday through midweek over the western third or so...as surface
westerly wind forecast a little stronger. Still not buying into the
trend totally to the extent of the models...given the existing
plentiful moisture. However...forecast Haines is high Tuesday
through Thursday across much of northern and central nm...so will be
monitoring this trend. Doesn/T look to dry out sufficiently to shut
down all convection...but storms would be limited to mainly the
higher terrain and adjacent lower elevations during this time.

High temperatures remain forecast to climb to near to above average
by Monday...and stay there until Thursday...when they start to cool.
This is consistent with the anticipated return of the moisture
plume. Min relative humidity values decrease early to middle next week...but Don/T
fall below 15 percent for most locales...and overnight recoveries
diminish but overall remain good. Some areas of fair to poor vent
rates forecast across the north for today and Sunday...then overall
improvement in rates Monday.

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
convective coverage has diminished this evening. -Shra continues
across far western nm but should diminish entirely within a few
hours. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain continue across SC/southeast nm. Individual storms
appear to be moving northward slowly...but storms are regenerating
over the same area. Suspect these storms will continue through at
least 09-10z. MVFR ceilings are possible again tonight at
ksaf/klvs...but confidence remains low to medium. Another round of
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are expected Sat afternoon. Storms should start by early
afternoon and should favor the northwest half of the area. Brief MVFR ceilings and
Montana obscurations are possible with the stronger storms.

34

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 84 62 87 60 / 30 60 30 40
Dulce........................... 75 51 77 50 / 70 70 60 50
Cuba............................ 77 53 80 53 / 60 60 60 60
Gallup.......................... 82 56 82 54 / 40 50 40 40
El Morro........................ 78 53 78 52 / 50 70 50 50
Grants.......................... 80 56 81 54 / 50 50 40 40
Quemado......................... 81 55 78 54 / 40 50 40 50
Glenwood........................ 85 59 84 59 / 20 20 40 40
Chama........................... 72 49 76 48 / 80 70 70 60
Los Alamos...................... 78 60 79 60 / 80 70 70 70
Pecos........................... 75 53 78 54 / 60 60 60 60
Cerro/Questa.................... 75 51 77 51 / 60 60 70 70
Red River....................... 68 47 69 46 / 70 70 80 70
Angel Fire...................... 71 48 72 47 / 70 70 70 70
Taos............................ 77 52 80 52 / 60 50 40 50
Mora............................ 74 52 75 51 / 60 70 60 70
Espanola........................ 82 56 83 57 / 50 50 40 50
Santa Fe........................ 80 58 80 58 / 60 50 50 40
Santa Fe Airport................ 82 59 82 59 / 50 40 30 30
Albuquerque foothills........... 84 63 84 64 / 30 40 30 40
Albuquerque heights............. 86 67 85 68 / 30 30 30 30
Albuquerque valley.............. 87 62 87 63 / 30 30 20 30
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 63 86 64 / 30 30 30 30
Los Lunas....................... 87 63 88 63 / 30 40 20 30
Rio Rancho...................... 85 64 86 64 / 30 30 30 30
Socorro......................... 90 63 90 63 / 30 30 30 30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 59 81 59 / 50 40 40 40
Tijeras......................... 83 60 82 59 / 40 40 40 40
Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 56 84 56 / 50 40 30 30
Clines Corners.................. 79 58 80 58 / 60 40 30 50
Gran Quivira.................... 82 59 82 58 / 50 30 30 30
Carrizozo....................... 86 61 86 60 / 50 40 20 20
Ruidoso......................... 77 55 79 55 / 70 40 40 30
Capulin......................... 82 57 81 56 / 60 50 40 40
Raton........................... 84 59 83 57 / 60 50 40 40
Springer........................ 84 60 84 60 / 60 50 30 40
Las Vegas....................... 78 56 81 55 / 70 60 30 50
Clayton......................... 85 63 88 63 / 70 40 20 30
Roy............................. 84 61 85 60 / 70 50 30 40
Conchas......................... 89 67 91 67 / 70 50 20 30
Santa Rosa...................... 88 64 90 65 / 70 50 20 30
Tucumcari....................... 91 67 93 66 / 70 40 20 20
Clovis.......................... 89 66 91 67 / 60 40 20 20
Portales........................ 91 67 91 68 / 50 40 20 20
Fort Sumner..................... 89 67 91 67 / 70 30 20 20
Roswell......................... 96 69 95 69 / 30 20 20 20
Picacho......................... 89 63 89 63 / 50 40 30 20
Elk............................. 84 61 83 60 / 50 40 40 30

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... nmz501>507-510>517.

&&

$$

52

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations