Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1151 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...
06z taf cycle
dryline has push westward...through the gaps of the Central Mountain
chain around ksaf and kskx. Some low clouds with ceilings around
040-050 have developed along and just east of the sangre Delaware cristo
mountains expect this to hang around until 12-13z. May see a gap wind
into the abq area but not expecting it to be strong. Otherwise...
low level jet across the plains will keep windy conditions
prevailing for another several hours with gusts to 40kt likely.
With these winds...some areas of bldu are also likely...with visibilities
occasionally dropping below 3 miles. Strong SW winds will
redevelop across much of central and western nm...west of the
dryline...with gusts near 35kts Thursday. Strong storms with
gusty/erratic winds...hail and MVFR ceilings are again possible along
and east of the dryline Thursday aftn/eve. Have inserted thunderstorms in the vicinity into
ktcc and krow taf. Looks like the low level jet will strengthen again
Thursday night to keep breezy to windy south winds going
overnight.
34
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Previous discussion...755 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013...
will update the zones shortly for the expiration of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 327. Removed the damaging wind and large
hail wording...also lowered probability of precipitation for the rest of the evening
and overnight...except put in low probability of precipitation for the rest of the this
evening over far NE nm where a stubborn cell or two continues to
hover along the Colorado border. Chj
Previous discussion...328 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013...
an extremely impressive dryline scenario for nm is taking shape
along and east of the Pecos River valley. The surface dewpoint
gradient and the low level directional wind shear is very strong.
West winds near 25mph with gusts to 40mph and a dewpoint of 21f at
Clines Corners contrasts east wind gusts up to 40mph and a
dewpoint of 64f at Melrose. Severe storms are developing quickly
along this boundary and the latest hi res mesoanalysis indicate
this will continue through late afternoon/early evening over the east
central and southeast plains. Not much time for full discussion on the
remainder of forecast so will keep it brief.
The overall forecast pattern advertised by model guidance has not
changed much since yesterday. The fine line will be along the
southeast half of the area where moisture sloshing from daily rounds of
late day showers and storms will contrast very dry and breezy
conditions farther west. Have essentially made little change to
the pop forecast except to perhaps drag things a little farther
north and west by Friday and Saturday. The temperature forecast will be
hot with readings 5 to 10f above normal.
Once we head into Sunday through next week the upper ridge will build
to near 597dm and really scorch the area with heat. 700mb temperatures
are trending toward +20c once again so while record heat may not
be as likely as was last week...it will be very hot and near record.
The GFS still wants to keep some moisture trickling over the far
southern reaches of the County Warning Area with late day terrain effects leading
to isolated dry/gusty storms. Guyer
Fire weather...
persistent set up will continue for the next 3 to 5 days. Breezy to
locally windy conditions favoring the higher ridges and areas near
to the Colorado and Arizona state lines as well as to the Lee of the
central mountains. Winds will tend to be herky jerky with wide gust
spreads due to the turbulent mixing or above normal mixing heights.
Will go ahead and upgrade the watch to a warning for Thursday.
Thought hard about the eastern plains zones...mainly western areas
but believe the models arent handling the dryline very well there.
Since fuel conditions and variable with either localized Greenup or
no grass at all.
The main fly in the ointment the next several days will be
convection or thunderstorm development along the dryline across
the east and how moisture gets pushed back to the west. This will
be most tricky during the overnight hours. Either way...a very
strong middle level dry intrusion will be situated over western and
northern areas the next few days although expect humidity values
to slowly trend up across southwest/south central areas as time
GOES on due to convection across the east and moisture trying to
seep up from the south.
Haines 6 values will be associated with the very dry and unstable
conditions found across western and central areas with even some
super Haines through Friday. Localized during the weekend. 6 values
should remain into the weekend although erode some due to the
anticipation of moisture ever so slowly flowing westward. Decided to
adjust dewpoints and thus relative humidity values down within the main middle level
dry intrusion area...below to well below guidance and went higher
across the south/east as time GOES on. This is a scenario that
generally occurs during a normal June like this year.
Also decided to increase the gridded wind forecast for Friday and
into the weekend to mimic more of what occurred today and what is
anticipated for Thursday. Friday wind speeds look to be slightly
less so will relegate the watch area to three zones at this
time...zone 105/101 and 102. Again favoring the higher terrain and
areas near the Arizona/Colorado state lines. Also adjust wind speeds up for the
weekend. Both ecwmf and GFS have increased winds slightly for this
period...especially Saturday as another reinforcing jet pushes into
the semipermanent Pacific trough. Thus...seeing some more critical
fire weather conditions for the weekend with a blend of breezy
conditions and Haines 6 to even localized super Haines values.
As mentioned above...the dryline and wetting thunderstorms should
increase across the east or remain persistent there Friday and into
the weekend. Decided to include some isolated dry thunderstorms
across the west Central Highlands such as the Datil and Magdalena
ranges due to moisture trying to seep up from the south. Even more
possible for the weekend and conditions become pretty dynamic then
due to wide moisture fluctuations.
Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS eventually build the upper ridge over the area as
next week progresses and the Pacific trough weakens some. Either
way...a breezier southwest flow should start early next week and
eventually give way to much lighter winds aloft. Temperatures will
warm even more and will continue to be above normal. During this flow
situation...will be looking for moisture to sneak up from Mexico as
well as undercut the ridge via a back door cold front. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
not too bullish for thunderstorm chances during this period but
suspect that will change as we get closer to the time frame.
Although a strong subsidence inversion would most likely form and
try to cap storm development. 50
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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones...nmz101>103-105>107-109.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones...nmz101-102-105.
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