Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1052 am MDT Monday Jul 6 2015
a very active period with torrential rainfall is on tap for the
next 12 to 18 hours. Expanded flash Flood Advisory west to account for activity
through the overnight as front moves through the Central Valley.
Was not as confident west of abq however very heavy rains from
last evening along The Divide have set the antecedent conditions
in place. Precipitable water values are in the target range of 1.2 to 1.3 with
a low level surface boundary...weak steering flow...sufficient
instability...and a dry punch on the western periphery of the
Previous discussion...549 am MDT Monday Jul 6 2015...
12z taf cycle
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become scattered to
numerous across much of northern and central New Mexico with the
highest concentration found in the northeastern quadrant of the
state. Abundant moisture will be in place...and a cold front will
back into the northeastern part of the state this afternoon. Some
heavy downpours will occasionally reduce ceilings and visibility
to MVFR/IFR categories...and gusty downburst winds will be
possible with any storms. The aforementioned front will advance
south and west...spilling through gaps and canyons within the
Central Mountain chain early this evening as winds accelerate
downstream of these areas. Expect periodic gusts of 30 to 35 knots at
kabq overnight...perhaps warranting an aviation weather warning.
Thunderstorms will also likely persist overnight as the front
advances farther south and west. Some low stratus clouds could
also develop just east of the Central Mountain chain by the early
morning hours...reducing ceilings to the MVFR and possibly IFR
Previous discussion...314 am MDT Monday Jul 6 2015...
the monsoon is in full swing this week...with significant rainfall
forecast across portions of New Mexico. The best chances for heavy
rain will be across the northeast quarter this afternoon...then
spread to include much of central and southeast portions of the
area tonight as a backdoor front makes southwest progress. Rain
chances will focus across central New Mexico Tuesday and well
below normal temperatures will prevail. Coverage of storms
decrease Wednesday only to increase again Thursday and Friday with
a monsoon moisture plume moving into the area. High temperatures
will remain below normal through the work week with a rise to near
normal over the weekend as high pressure begins to strengthen over
precipitable waters were even more impressive on the 00z upper air soundings
compared to 24hrs ago...near daily record values at ktwc...kepz
and kabq. Another round of storms forecast today...with good
coverage and locally heavy rainfall amounts near 2.0 inches. The
best chances will be along/near a backdoor front across the
northeast quarter where a Flash Flood Watch is currently in
effect. The watch may need to be expanded further west to include
the sandias/manzanos...the Santa Fe metropolitan and the tusas/Jemez
Mountains where convection may go all night with upslope flow
forcing and an extremely buoyant airmass. Strong East Canyon/gap
winds are forecast to develop this evening in the Rio Grande
Valley...aided by convective outflows...and may trigger/sustain
ongoing convection between the abq/saf metropolitan areas.
Well below normal temperatures forecast Tuesday thanks to the
rain-cooled frontal layer and abundant cloud cover...which may
limit convection and favor showers or some stratiform rain. Best
rain chances Tuesday will be across central New Mexico. Shortwave
ridging forecast Wednesday ahead of an eastward-bound Pacific low
moving into central California. Plenty of moisture for another
round of storms Wednesday...favoring the eastern plains where a
few storms may become strong.
The shortwave ridge shifts east Wednesday night into Thursday and
a monsoon moisture plume will advect north across eastern Arizona
and New Mexico ahead of the slow moving Pacific low. This moisture
plume will be oriented over our area Thursday/Friday and lead to scattered
to numerous storms which will keep high temperatures below normal
through the end of the work week.
More storms forecast Sat/sun...but with a gradual downtrend in
coverage as an upper high expands over the region. Look for high
temperatures to trend back to normal during this period and for
storms to be more locked-on to the higher terrain. Moderate
forecaster confidence on this trend over the weekend with both the
00z European model (ecmwf) and GFS showing the same pattern and with good run-to-
widespread wetting precipitation...elevated humidity and cooler
temperatures will preclude any critical fire weather conditions
the next couple of days. A very moist and unstable airmass will
await over nm...eager to greet a back door front that will spill
into the northeast quadrant of the state today. This will set the
stage for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm with the
most widespread wetting precipitation being along and east of the
sangre Delaware cristos today. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible in this northeastern section of the forecast area.
Temperatures will reach within a couple degrees of normal in most
locations today...the exception being the northeast where the
front will usher in cooler readings and higher dewpoints.
The front should spill into the upper to middle Rio Grande Valley
before dark...bringing gusty gap/canyon winds west of Taos
canyon...Glorieta Pass...bear/Tijeras Canyon...and Abo pass. Into
the evening precipitation will favor the Central Mountain
chain...spilling onto the jemez and San Juan/tusas...and perhaps
even to the Continental Divide through the early morning hours
Tuesday. Look for excellent humidity recovery of 80 to 100 percent
in almost every zone by Tuesday morning.
The airmass should stabilize in the far eastern plains on
Tuesday...limiting storm development there...but numerous storms
should still impact much of the areas between the Central Mountain
chain and the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average Tuesday which
will keep humidity elevated. Winds would stay east southeast over
much of the eastern half of the state Tuesday with some surface
convergence likely setting up near the Continental Divide and light
west winds on the western side of it. Overall speeds will stay light
by Tuesday afternoon...aside from any thunderstorm outflows.
Westerly flow aloft will blanket nm for the second day in a row on
Wednesday while surface winds veer more south southwest across the
forecast area. Some drier air is advertised to work into western
nm...and this could potentially shove the best chances for wetting
precipitation to the central to eastern zones. Temperatures would
rebound...but would still be a few degrees shy of average for early
July. Lowest humidity would be found in the San Juan basin
Wednesday...but still at or above 20 percent.
With low pressure working inland over California and eventually ejecting
northeastward late in the work week...the subtropical plume of
moisture should stay squeezed over nm. This will keep showers and
thunderstorms going Thursday and Friday. High pressure is then
advertised to migrate back over nm...briefly reducing storm
potential this weekend.
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
for the following zones... nmz504-506>508-510>514-516>522-524-526.
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following