Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
528 am MDT Monday Apr 21 2014
12z taf cycle
residual middle level moisture will persist through today as surface
front pushes into the eastern plains. Isolated to scattered -shra/thunderstorms and rain with
brief Montana obscurations to develop over the central Montana chain after 18z
and drift southeast. Front to back to east slopes central Montana chain
and bleed into the Rio Grande Valley after 22/00z while local MVFR
ceilings develop over the northeast and east central.
Previous discussion...334 am MDT Monday Apr 21 2014...
an upper level ridge will move over New Mexico today while a weak
frontal boundary sags into eastern parts of the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again today...primarily along and
just east of the sangre Delaware cristo mountains with temperatures
rising above normal across all of northern and central New Mexico.
Storms will be possible again on Tuesday as high pressure departs
the state...but dry and windy conditions will arrive on Wednesday.
Another low pressure system with cooler temperatures...strong
winds...and precipitation will potentially impact New Mexico by
the surface front that models have been advertising. Prognoses
suggest that the front will become better defined after day break
with northerly surface winds veering more easterly and
consequently inducing some upslope forcing toward the sangres and
remainder of the Central Mountain chain. Dewpoints in the 30s and
40s are still in place in this region and no drying is expected in
the eastern half of nm today as the surface boundary arrives.
Thus...scattered to likely probability of precipitation are in the forecast today near the
Central Mountain chain with more isolated cells expected farther
east on the plains. A few stray cells may even pop west of the Rio
Grande...but should be rather weak and high based.
Tonight models continue to show dewpoints increasing westward.
Some low clouds and perhaps even some patchy fog will develop in
the east Central Plains close to the Texas border Tuesday morning. Upper
30s dewpoints are shown to progress into the Rio Grande and west
Central Highlands early Tuesday morning...and this moisture
increase is expected to set the stage for another round of storms
Tuesday afternoon. Some mixing of the moisture back east is
anticipated by afternoon...so some cells west of the Rio Grande
will be high based and producing more wind than wetting rainfall.
The Central Mountain chain will then be the primary focus for
precipitation. Temperatures will be above average and breezes will
be getting stronger from the south as the winds aloft strengthen
and Lee side surface trough deepens.
Winds will continue to strengthen into Wednesday as low pressure
system moves into the far northern rockies with an extension of
pressure falls leading farther south toward co/nm. The Lee side
surface low will continue to deepen in eastern Colorado with 35-55kt of
flow in the 700 mb to 500 mb layer. This will put a few zones within reach
of Wind Advisory criteria and critical fire weather as a middle level
dry slot mixes down to the surface and scours out our moisture.
Some subtle cooling aloft will follow a brief stint of west
northwest flow aloft Wednesday night...but winds will lean more
zonal by the daytime Thursday. This will keep things dry with
another low pressure system approaching nm/Colorado by the weekend. Lots
of wind...cooler temperatures...and some precipitation in northern
zones are currently indicated.
low level moisture to slosh back and forth over the eastern plains
through much of the work week. Surface high pressure to push into
the plains today will shove higher dew points westward...and into
the Rio Grande Valley tonight on a relatively weak easterly wind.
Northwest flow aloft...lingering moisture from the weekend activity
and low level upslope winds will result in isolated to scattered
convection this afternoon and evening central and east with isolated
convection over the higher terrain of the west. Vent rates will be
good or better with highs above average today.
Tuesday will see a drying trend in the west in the lower levels.
Think any higher humidities that make it into the Rio Grande Valley
tonight will mix out. Some middle level moisture increases indicated
and can/T rule out potential for a few dry showers/storms western
high terrain in the afternoon. In addition...winds start to increase
in the west...combined with Haines of 5 and highs well above
climatology...leads to several hours of critical conditions over portions
of the northwest/west central and middle Rio Grande Valley Tuesday
afternoon. Min relative humidity may be marginal if the mix out doesn/T occur as
strongly as forecast but decided to go with a watch for zones
101...105 and 106.
Wednesday still looks like critical conditions will be widespread
over the central and east...while possibly a little more marginal in
the far west as temperatures cool to near or even a little below
average. High Haines to dominate along with lowering dew points.
Gusty westerly winds should shunt into Texas any lingering low level
moisture. Vent rates both Tuesday and Wednesday will be excellent.
A front in the wake of the exiting trough early Thursday will push
higher dew points into the eastern plains...but should mix out in
the afternoon...leaving most areas under single digit relative humidity values
Thursday afternoon. Although high Haines forecast for most of the
region...winds are not expected to be strong enough for critical
conditions to develop...and temperatures will be closer to average
for the latter half of April.
Another front will again bring some higher dew points into the
plains Friday as winds start to strengthen in advance of another
storm system. Southerly winds will be gusty Saturday with a shift
to the west and northwest Sunday. A few showers will be possible
north of Interstate 40. Critical conditions may develop especially
along and south of Interstate 40 Saturday while remaining over the
south central and east central Sunday.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones...nmz101-105-106.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for the following zones...nmz101>109.