Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
604 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

00z taf cycle
numerous rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will continue across much of northern and
central nm through the evening hours. Storms are expected to expand
across NE nm this evening with upslope flow continuing. Brief MVFR
ceilings/visibilities are possible with the stronger storms. After
midnight... low ceilings...MVFR to IFR category...are expected to
develop along the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristo mountains...and
if some models are to be believed...low ceilings may be more
widespread...even across portions of western nm. Some rain showers
activity should also persist through the overnight hours. Another
round of thunderstorms and rain is expected on Thursday..favoring the high terrain and
portions of NE nm. Locally heavy rain and MVFR ceilings/visibilities in this
activity is possible.



Previous discussion...322 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015...
a back door cold front undercutting rich monsoon moisture will
lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain with a
potential for flash flooding mainly across central and northeast
areas. A rich monsoon moisture plume will continue to stream north
and northeastward over western and northern areas through the
weekend. However...the amount of moisture available for
thunderstorms will trend downward decreasing the flash flood
threat after Thursday. After high temperatures a few to 10 degrees
below normal Thursday and Friday...readings will trend upward this
weekend with most places reaching near normal starting Sunday.


the back door cold front is forecast to finish pushing west of the
forecast area this evening. An axis of high pressure spanning the
area aloft from southwest to northeast will result in weak
steering flow for thunderstorms...and models are depicting some
hefty quantitative precipitation forecast values from slow moving or even stalling cells and
clusters of cells from central to northeast areas. Tropical
characteristics to the airmass will also lead to some heavier
rain amounts. Widespread half inch to nearly 1.5 inch rain
amounts are expected from near Albuquerque and Santa Fe to near
Clayton and Tucumcari...with locally heavier values over 3 inches

An easterly wave tracking northwestward across northern Mexico
this afternoon is forecast by models to move northward near the
nm/Arizona border Thursday...then northeastward across The Four Corners
Thursday evening and eastward along the nm/Colorado border Friday. There
are some model differences in this timing...but the track is
pretty similar. This will keep the monsoon moisture plume pretty
strong and very active. Precipitable waters should generally vary around 1 to
1.10 inches during this period and through the remainder of the
weekend...keeping the risk of locally heavy rainfall in the
forecast. Antecedent moisture from today and the risk of more
locally heavy rainfall Thursday may cause the potential for flash
flooding to continue Thursday and Thursday night across western
and northern areas.

The center of a dirty ridge of high pressure that moves over
central and southern parts of the forecast area this weekend is
prognosticated to continue wobbling around nm through the first part of
the coming work week. The monsoon moisture plume will continue
arcing over western and northern areas with seasonably high precipitable waters
near and over an inch keeping wetting rain in the forecast.



Fire weather...
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
will continue across much of northern and central New Mexico this
evening. Ample moisture feeding from the south along with a back
door cold front pushing west will enhance storm activity. Expect
gusty to erratic winds due to outflow boundaries near storms.
Because of slow storm motion from south to north...flash flooding
will be a concern across much of the forecast area. Gap winds will
increase within the central Rio Grande Valley/Tijeras Canyon tonight
as the back door cold front pushes through the canyons. Gap winds
look to taper off by Thursday morning.

Ample moisture with stationary storm motions will continue enhancing
storm activity with heavy rainfall accumulations over the state
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal as
humidity values trend upward following rain and cloud cover. The
upper level high will recenter back over the state late Friday into
the weekend...then hover over the region through the next work
week...then shift westward by the following weekend. Temperatures
will trend upward as rain footprints gradually decrease each day
into next week.


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 3 am MDT Thursday for the following zones...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations