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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1143 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
Odile remnants drifting east and north along Interstate 40 in
eastern nm will cross into the Texas Panhandle by 18z Friday noontime
with continuing overnight Montana obscuration and eastern plains fog.
Easterly wind shift across eastern nm will promote up slope
enhancement of showers against the Central Mountain chain from 18z
Onward Friday with showers continuing through 06z. Overnight...low
ceilings...rain and fog will drop lvs...tcc...and row to MVFR and IFR.
Scattered cloud groups at IFR/MVFR levels serving as placeholders for
downward ceiling excursions during valid period. Vcsh brackets
greatest likelihood for nearby showers and embedded thunder.

Shy

&&

Previous discussion...730 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014...
update...
updated forecast to remove Flash Flood Watch wording from zone forecast product and
to lower probability of precipitation. Remnant warm core Odile circulation all but kaput
over south central nm this evening. Decreased precipitation
chances significantly overnight with no discernible upper level
mesoscale atmospheric lift remaining and instability waining.
Still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeast and
east- central areas...the vast majority of which should be in the
form of light to moderate rain.

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&&



Previous discussion...314 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014...
synopsis...
the remnants of a tropical cyclone known as Odile have worked
into New Mexico with copious amounts of moisture pushing into
south central to southeastern New Mexico. Widespread
rainfall...some of which will be locally heavy...will continue to
spread over south central to southeastern New Mexico this
evening...eventually shifting into east central parts of the state
later tonight. Expect cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy
conditions over much of eastern New Mexico on Friday as remnant
moisture and precipitation covers this half of the state. Also...a
few storms will still be possible in western New Mexico Friday.
Expect less storms on Saturday with temperatures running close to
seasonal averages...despite the arrival of a fast-moving cold
front. Some additional moisture could seep back into the state
Sunday...leading to scattered storms in many parts of the state.

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&&

Discussion...
the remnants of a tropical cyclone known as Odile have worked
into New Mexico with copious amounts of moisture pushing into
south central to southeastern New Mexico. Widespread
rainfall...some of which will be locally heavy...will continue to
spread over south central to southeastern New Mexico this
evening...eventually shifting into east central parts of the state
later tonight. Expect cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy
conditions over much of eastern New Mexico on Friday as remnant
moisture and precipitation covers this half of the state. Also...a
few storms will still be possible in western New Mexico Friday.
Expect less storms on Saturday with temperatures running close to
seasonal averages...despite the arrival of a fast-moving cold
front. Some additional moisture could seep back into the state
Sunday...leading to scattered storms in many parts of the state.

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&&

Discussion...
as we Chase the remnants of Odile...the focus for additional
rainfall seems to be shifting toward the south
central...southeastern...and east central parts of nm.
While the remnant circulation is still in southwestern nm...the
best surge of deep moisture is currently displaced to the
east...essentially blanketing the southeastern quadrant of nm at
this time. Current radar imagery shows batch of stratiform rain
over south central nm...advancing toward Chaves County and
potentially southern Lincoln County. Additional discrete cells are
also firing in Catron...Socorro...and northern Lincoln County.
Abundant clouds in Curry and Roosevelt counties may suppress
daytime instability...leaving a later window of opportunity
tonight. For tonight...have decided to extend Flash Flood Watch
for lower Rio Grande...Gila...and San Francisco river zones...but
will keep remaining areas as-is. The Heart of
Chaves...Curry...Roosevelt...and Delaware Baca counties have not
observed too much rainfall yet...thus they are not primed as much
as points farther west.

Into Friday the remnants of Odile will work toward northeastern
nm...with a healthy slug of lagging moisture over much of the
eastern half of the state. The east Central Plains will be favored
for rainfall...some of which will be locally heavy. Temperatures
will run a bit below average in the east Friday due to the
plethora of clouds expected. Showers and storms should be somewhat
limited along and west of the Rio Grande due to a drier
Continental air mass working in from the northwest. At this point
model consensus is for the bulk of the precipitation to exit east
nm and push into West Texas by Friday night. High pressure over old
Mexico and a trough closing into a low over Southern California will be
driving features that determine how quickly remnants of Odile
exit.

Should Odile exit as advertised...a back door front would move
into its place...bringing in some gusty conditions to the east
central to northeastern zones during the day Saturday. The air mass
along the front would appear to be too dry to spawn too much in
the way of convection...but if moisture from Odile is slower to
exit then the forcing along the front may help ignite a few cells.
Elsewhere the drier air mass should pose difficulty in supporting
storm formation...and thus probability of precipitation have been left at 10-20 percent
for most remaining areas. The front could spill through the Rio
Grande Valley around noon Saturday...introducing some gusty winds
downwind of canyons/gaps.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with Sunday and the first part
of next week. The closed low over Southern California should drift
northeastward into Nevada with a brief channel of moisture being drawn
up over western nm. The story in the east could be a return of
moisture back into the east with moist up slope flow. The probability of precipitation
have not been hoisted terribly high at this point...but will
continue to monitor. Once the closed low pushes east into the
Great Plains by middle week...the subtropical ridge should make an
appearance over nm with a deep Pacific northwest storm taking shape.

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&&

Fire weather...
main highlights near term will be higher humidity and wetting
rain chances favoring the south/east. Unsettled weather should
continue during the weekend with a moderate back door cold front
Saturday combined with a closed low over California ejecting
northeastward over the Great Basin on Sunday. Atmospheric
conditions appear to be drier next week although a back door cold
front is in the cards with residual unsettledness and some
shower/thunderstorm chances early in the week.

Remnants of Odile will continue to impact southern and eastern areas
through Friday. This is where the best chance of wetting rain
exists. Drier air which currently resides over the north should
moisten some...at least at the low levels on Friday thus relative humidity values
will rise. Wetting rain chances look to be most pronounced along and
east of the central mountains maximum ventilation should drop into the poor
category along the central mountains and also include the upper Rio
Grande Valley and portions of the Jemez Mountains caveat is that there
is quite a gradient depicted by the models so dont be surprised if
forecasted vent rates changed along this buffer area during the next
24 hours.

As mentioned above...models appear to be pretty similar in depicting
a continued unsettled weather pattern into the weekend and quite
possibly lingering into early next week. The main catalyst for the
unsettled weather would be residual moisture left over from the
Odile passage...back door cold front and a closed low originating
from Southern California. The stronger precipitation day appears to
be Sunday but this will be dependent on the closed Pacific low
ejection from Southern California. Saturday looks to be more of a
down day although residual high humidity should continue. Both the
GFS/European model (ecmwf) show wetting precipitation chances continuing into Monday.
Ventilation rates dont look all that low although some poors show up
Saturday across the far northwest and southeast. Improving ventilation for the
most part on Sunday.

GFS/European model (ecmwf) are consistent with showing drier middle level air pushing
into The Four Corners area on Tuesday and eventually spreading south
and eastward through Thursday. Another Pacific trough is being
depicted by both long range models late week/following weekend and the
timing/orientation of this trough passage would certainly be in
question. Will it close off and be slower to impact the area or will
it be more progressive. If it is more progressive then look for some
stronger wind ahead of it with high ventilation rates. Too early to
say right now.

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&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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