Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
521 am MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
12z taf cycle
vrf conditions expected across the area over the next 24 hours.
Winds will be light for most locations with a few 15 to 20kt gusts
possible in the far west and northwest. Terrain dominated winds expected
during overnight hours.
Previous discussion...315 am MDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015...
High pressure aloft will dominate through Wednesday as dry
conditions persist. Afternoon highs will be above average through
Wednesday with potential for near record highs over portions of the
west and central. Highs trend a bit cooler west Thursday as clouds
begin to increase from west to east...and a few showers or storms
develop west of the Continental Divide. By late this week...chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase further across mainly western
and central New Mexico...while a cold front brings below average
highs to the east Friday and overall Saturday. Unsettled weather
will linger into early next week.
High pressure aloft building over the southern rockies through
Wednesday. Highs will be well above average today through
Wednesday...with portions of western and central nm potentially
seeing near record highs...if not today then Wednesday. Dew points
continue to crater...therefore lows tonight and Wednesday night may
be a little cooler than this morning/S final lows...but will
continue to be mostly above average for middle October.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) remain in decent agreement through Saturday...with a
cooler and wetter pattern forecast. Thursday will see potential for
convection mainly west of the Continental Divide...but with the low dew
points...think it may be tough initially for much in the way of
wetting rain. Therefore went ahead with mention of some dry
convection for parts of the west central. Chances for wetting rain
increase Friday into Saturday west and central. The anticipated cold
front now appears faster....so Thursday afternoon could be a little
cooler far northeast nm. The front plows through the central Montana
chain Thursday night to the Continental Divide by early Friday...as the initial
upper wave ejects over western nm. A second and even third disturbance
are possible through Monday...along with another cold front...though
GFS/European model (ecmwf) timing varies. A strong and gusty east wind into the rgv
possible Friday...leading to highs in general falling below average
by Saturday. Sunday through next Tuesday...highs will be closer to
average or below...so enjoy the next couple of days.
Look for marginal fire weather concerns over the next couple of days
as the upper level ridge centers over the Arizona/nm border. Near record
highs and low to middle teen minimum humidities are expected today and
Wednesday west of the central mountains...with above normal
temperatures and slightly higher minimum humidities across the east.
Each day will be fairly unstable as well...indicated by widespread
high Haines values. But weak surface gradients and the ridge aloft
will keep wind speeds low and well below necessary thresholds.
Ventilation rates will remain fair for most of the area today with
spotty poor and good values mixed in. Those rates will trend poorer
Wednesday with weakening transport winds aloft.
The upper level low currently sitting west of the Baja California California
coast will begin impact the area Thursday as it slowly lifts to the
northeast while weakening. A slight increase in middle level moisture
could lead to a dry thunderstorm or two across the western higher
terrain during the afternoon and evening. At the same time...a
backdoor cold front will enter the northeast plains...bringing
cooler temperatures and stronger winds. By Friday morning...the
front will have pushed through the gaps of the central mountains
with gusty winds and slightly increased surface moisture. Top down
moistening across the west will also assist surface moisture
increases...resulting in improved daytime and nighttime humidities.
Thunderstorm chances by Friday afternoon will be focused along the
Arizona/nm border and the northern mountains...with better chances for
wetting rains with these storms. Temperatures will trend down each
day...becoming near to below normal areawide by Friday. Spotty areas
of poor ventilation rates will develop Thursday and Friday...but
look for the overall trend to be for improved rates.
The focus for the weekend will be on the decay of the first upper
level low and the quick reinforcement of a stronger upper level
trough. This one two punch should keep middle level moisture advection
going over western portions of the state...allowing for thunderstorm
chances Saturday and Sunday. However...the speed with which that
trough moves east will determine how quickly and efficiently that
moisture spreads east...and there is some uncertainty in this
aspect. The push east could come late Sunday into Monday according
to the GFS and be fairly wet for central areas of the state...or
maybe not at all with the state remaining fairly dry according to
the European model (ecmwf). Regardless...it seems safe to say that temperatures will
remain near to slightly below normal and stronger afternoon winds
from the south and southwest. The stronger winds will also lead to
improved ventilation rates...becoming excellent most areas by Monday.