Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1045 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2016

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail all areas during the next 24 hours as a
dry northwest flow aloft remains in place. A weak upper level trough
will drop southeastward through southeast Colorado tonight...pushing a dry backdoor
cold front southward into eastern nm early Sunday morning. Meanwhile...another
upper level wave will send a dry cold front from northwest to southeast across
western and central nm Sunday afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions
are expected at most taf sites through early evening as a result.
Winds will diminish around sunset.

33

&&

Previous discussion...300 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2016...
synopsis...

Dry through the middle of next week with above average temperatures.
Highs will be somewhat cooler Sunday and Monday with occasionally
gusty winds...but undergo a day to day warming trend thereafter.
Thursday looks to be the warmest day of next week...with highs
potentially reaching into the 80s in the southeast plains. Breezy to
windy conditions also possible Thursday...along with a few showers
near the Colorado border. Forecast models suggest a more unsettled
weather pattern is possible late next week.

&&

Discussion...

Another couple of dry disturbances to bring a pair of weak fronts to
the state through Monday along with rounds of gusty winds to the
central and east.

Although there will be some cooling Sunday...temperatures remain
above average...just not quite so much as today. A quick records
check reveals little chance for most locales to come very close to
their all time readings Sunday afternoon...especially in the east
where the greatest cooling is forecast. Highs cool a bit more on
Monday higher terrain and north while warming a bit east...but again
remain above average...though not so much so as to approach record
values. Tuesday...Wednesday and Thursday will see a day to day
warming trend...with 80s possible in the southeast by Thursday.

Gusty winds look to accompany the warmth Thursday...and a few
showers over the higher terrain near the Colorado border can/T be
ruled out Thursday into Thursday night...especially if the European model (ecmwf) is
correct with a somewhat deeper and sharper upper trough.

Thereafter temperatures start to slide downward...but continue
warmer than normal...as models hint at a more unsettled pattern.
Having trouble buying into the gobs of precipitation GFS has ginned
up on it/S 12z run...which is associated with a hefty and more
Spring like return flow as well as a weak upper trough. European model (ecmwf) is
more subdued but suggests a similar pattern which is temporally and
spatially shifted. Deja vu.

&&

Fire weather...

An extended period of dry weather will continue to persist over nm
for the next several days. A ridge of high pressure has currently
flattened over nm...and a short wave trough is traversing the
northern rockies...due to slide southeastward into the Great Plains
tonight. Winds have been stronger along and east of the Central
Mountain chain today...particularly in the northeast Highlands and
plains of nm. Consequently some spotty critical conditions have been
observed there this afternoon...but these will abate as winds will
diminish after sunset this evening. The flow aloft will then
gradually turn more northwesterly with some speeds of 30-40mph at
the 10000ft level tonight into Sunday. Humidity will recover to 80
percent or better in much of north central to northwestern nm
tonight and early Sunday...but elsewhere humidity recovery will be
only fair...and even poor in some locations of southwest nm.

The aforementioned short wave will drive a cold front southward into
nm on Sunday. Winds will shift northwesterly with some breezy speeds
by middle day for central to western zones. In the eastern plains the
front will enter from the back door with a northeasterly wind
component. Temperatures will be set back a few degrees...but will
still be above average by 5 to 12 degrees. Relative humidity will still be able to
fall to less than 15 percent in many central zones...and this could
be juxtaposed over some briefly critical wind speeds in The
Highlands of central and west central nm Sunday afternoon. The
brevity and short duration of these critical conditions should
negate the need for any watch/warning statements. Surface/20ft winds
will decrease in most places after sunset Sunday...but the northwest
winds aloft will be a bit slower to decrease in speed...keeping some
ridge tops gusty into the early morning hours Monday.

Breezes will still be moderate on Monday in areas stretching from
the northwest plateau to the central valleys/Highlands...but
elsewhere will be light. While light...but still
downsloping...southwesterly breezes in the plains will lead to
warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity. Some patches of sub-15 percent relative humidity
will be observed Monday. Pockets of poor ventilation will also be an
issue Monday...namely in the northern mountains and north central
valleys.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday the warming trend will be the main theme
as the ridge aloft redevelops over the American southwest. Critical
relative humidity will be common in the afternoons due to the very dry airmass and
above normal temperatures in place...but atmospheric winds will
remain light. Ventilation will deteriorate Tuesday and more-so
Wednesday.

The pattern turns windy on Thursday as a Pacific trough passes to
the north of nm. Dry conditions will hold through Friday...but an
ill-formed disturbance could bring some precipitation toward nm by
the weekend. At this point confidence is very low as models have
been fickle with solutions.

52

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

50

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations