Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
533 am MDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015
12z taf cycle
Some patches of lower stratus clouds have showed signs of
developing early this morning...but most areas are continuing to
observe VFR ceilings. Have removed mention of MVFR ceilings in
tafs at ktcc and krow due to low confidence in any development.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon over the western third of New Mexico. Some brief
reductions to ceilings and visibility will be possible with any
passing shower or storm along with gusty outflow winds. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail with moderately breezy conditions this
Previous discussion...308 am MDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015...
a warming and drying trend will begin today...but temperatures
will still be below normal. A few showers or thunderstorms are
possible central and west by afternoon. By Thursday...temperatures
will be back above normal area wide and will continue through the
weekend with afternoon showers and thunderstorms not bringing much
in the way of measurable rainfall. An upper level low pressure
system will impact the area early next week with good chances for
showers and thunderstorms...especially across the eastern plains.
00z kabq sounding showed the warming trend had already begun...
with 24hr temperature change values all positive throughout the
column. Despite wet grounds...fog will have a difficult time
developing early this morning as clouds linger and the lower
boundary layer remains at least partially mixed.
The upper low is moving east across North Texas while a ridge of
high pressure continues to pump-up across the intermountain west.
Increasing pressure heights are forecast across our area as this
ridge lays over the southern rockies and Desert Southwest through
the next 48hrs...with temperatures increasing and precipitable waters
decreasing. Temperatures will be below normal today...near normal
Wednesday...then above normal area wide by Thursday. Some wetting
convection possible this afternoon out west where the best
moisture convergence exists...but chances for showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday will be slim with no
wetting precipitation anticipated. Here at kabq...highs are
forecast to hit 80 by Thursday...then continue at or above 80
through Sunday. Roswell is forecast to hit 90 on Friday...which
would be the first 90 degree day there this calendar year. A weak
backdoor cold front across the northeast on Friday may help to
enhance a round of late day convection there...with some wetting
precipitation possible. Weak westerly flow forecast over the
weekend with late day build ups and temperatures persisting above
The forecast gets a bit more interesting early next week as a Baja California
low approaches and moves over. Good agreement between the 00z GFS
and European model (ecmwf) in the timing of a backdoor front on Monday and the
passage of the trough on Tuesday with widespread quantitative precipitation forecast. This
scenario would bring wetting precipitation to much of our
area...favoring the eastern plains with a decent severe weather
signal. Temperatures trend back down early next week with the
backdoor front...increased cloud cover and potential for rain.
recent precipitation and Greenup amongst fuels will limit fire
danger as the weather pattern trends warmer while remaining
Upper low pressure system will slowly exit east southeast of nm
today while some weaker trailing energy aloft drops into the state.
This will shift best chances for precipitation to the western third
of nm while temperatures begin warming...but still fall short of
late April averages. Breezes will remain moderate to occasionally
strong in the eastern plains zones where ventilation will be best.
Some pockets of poor ventilation will hold over the north central to
northwestern zones today.
An upper level ridge will then be the dominant feature Wednesday
into Thursday...allowing temperatures to quickly soar while light
wind fields blanket nm. Rising temperatures will allow relative humidity to plummet
to 15 percent or below in some locales both Wednesday and
Thursday...and ventilation will improve with rising mixing heights.
A surface front will invade the northern zones Thursday night...but
will do little to cool temperatures and instead will only offer a
slight chance for showers/storms in the north. A Baja California perturbation
could then introduce some scattered showers/storms to the northern
and western tiers of the state by Saturday while the temperatures
hover above average and light to moderate winds stay intact. A more
substantial pattern shift could then arrive into next Monday and
Tuesday as a Baja California trough aloft from the southwest meets up with a
back door surface cold front from the northeast...reintroducing more
widespread wetting precipitation chances along with some stronger