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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
811 PM MDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Update...
allowed the Flash Flood Watch to expire at 8 PM MDT. Tweaked probability of precipitation
a bit for the evening and overnight periods. Mainly adjusted far
eastern edge to lower or remove probability of precipitation. Zones out shortly. Chj

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Previous discussion...545 PM MDT Friday Jul 11 2014...
aviation...
00z taf cycle
main focus for monsoonal sh/ts will be found over western and
central areas through early-middle evening. Appears that widespread
sh would remain across the northwest third or so due to some
additional middle level forcing there. Dropped ts impacts after 2 to
3z at fmn/gup/abq/aeg and saf. Then transition to sh impacts
thereafter. Gup/fmn would see the longest duration sh impacts.
Watching low level cumulus field pushing northwestward ahead of an
easterly wave currently over Mexico. MVFR ceilings could impact the southeast
plains later this evening. Currently have impacts at row at this
time...generally after 9z. Will monitor that trend
accordingly...whether tcc needs lower ceilings.

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Previous discussion...328 PM MDT Friday Jul 11 2014...
synopsis...
an active shower and thunderstorm period is on tap for the next
week. Showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern
New Mexico for the rest of today and Saturday...before the focus
shifts...or perhaps just spreads...into eastern New Mexico Sunday
through much of next week. Several back door cold front next week
will be a focus for precipitation across the plains. This will
also cool temperatures back below normal. Storms will move slowly
all week...thus the potential for flooding exists daily...
especially over burn scars.

&&

Discussion...
water vapor and visible satellite imagery showing substantial dry air
and subsidence moving into much of eastern and portions of central
nm ahead of an easterly wave. Monsoonal plume is certainly focused
across western nm where Flash Flood Watch is in place and precipitable waters are
at or just above normal. Appears like the dry air has pushed further
west than models suggested...but the 17z hrrr appears to be on track
with shifting the focus for precipitation tonight further to the
northwest...where Theta-E ridge axis lies. Have increased probability of precipitation in
this area as these locales have received plenty of sunshine
today...and with good instability and storm motions generally toward
the west...it makes sense that storms favor that area tonight. There
is also a precarious boundary right along the NE nm/southeast Colorado border
that has recently sparked an isolated storm. Looks like this
boundary will stay north of the area...thus have kept probability of precipitation at a
minimum. Abq area will be tricky...as storms thus far have struggled
that have formed on the sandias due to the dry air...but additional
storms have developed east of the mountains and based on storm
motions...should arrive in abq prior to 6pm if they hold together.

The easterly wave slides south of the state tonight. There will
still be some dry air in place over the east tomorrow...but the upper
high that is over the NE now...will start to shift west-northwest. This will
mean little change for storm coverage and placement for Saturday.
Most storms will travel westward...except storms across the NE which
may drift eastward. These NE storms will develop along a weak cold
front that will generally stall across the area. Outflow boundaries
later in the evening may push it further south however.

The weak front across the NE looks to be reinforced a bit on
Sunday...and this may push the front further south. Have expanded
chance probability of precipitation across the NE for this reason. Otherwise...the upper
high will be centered across the Great Basin...which generally tilts
the weak monsoonal plume over into more of the state.

With an existing boundary in play across the east...have increased
probability of precipitation across the plains for Monday. Then the stronger
front...associated with the strong upper low across the Great
Lakes...will arrive Monday night and Tuesday...putting additional
focus for storms across the east. The west will remain active
too...especially if the front pushes through the gaps.

Northwest flow will be in place over nm middle week as the pattern
becomes quite amplified. This is not good in terms of receiving
moisture from the south...the traditional monsoon way...but regular
disturbances in the northwest flow will continue usher in moisture
across the east behind back door fronts...and one such strong front
looks to arrive Wednesday night...which may push through the gaps of
the Central Mountain chain once again. Thus...an active pattern will
persist through the next week. Models are hinting at rebuilding the
upper high over nm next weekend. Stay tuned.

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&&

Fire weather...
an active monsoon moisture plume will continue with wetting rain
over the western...central and northern central zones this afternoon
and Saturday. An expansion in the wetting rain pattern will commence
on Sunday when a back door front supports increased chances of
precipitation across northeastern zones. A widespread wet pattern
will then be in place for the work week with increased chances of
burn scar flooding.

Upper level high currently is centered over extreme eastern Texas
with an easterly wave centered just south of The Big Bend area and
slowly drifting to the northwest. A broad area of subsidence ahead
of the wave is ushering in middle level dry air into eastern New
Mexico...thus shutting down wetting rain across the eastern zones.
Surface moisture remains in place across the east where some
excellent relative humidity recoveries are expected tonight...with mainly good
values elsewhere.

Upcoming pattern changes are currently developing well north of New
Mexico as an upper ridge builds over the West Coast and an upper low
deepens over central Canada. This pattern will amplify starting
Sunday as the high continues to strengthen as the low moves toward
the Great Lakes. The first of several back door fronts will edge
into the northeast on Sunday...with cooler temperatures...enhanced
low level moisture and increased chances of wetting rain from the
north Central Mountain to the northeast plains. Monsoon plume will
persist across the west thus only the extreme east Central Plains
look to remain dry.

For the work week...the amplified pattern persists with high
pressure to the west and regular wind shifts into the northeast
maintaining moist low level east to southeast flow across the
eastern plains through the work week. Extend models show reasonable
agreement with upper level disturbances in the northwest flow aloft
on early Wednesday and again on Thursday. While there is still
uncertainty in the timing of specific features...the chances for
widespread wetting rain for the work week...resulting in possible burn
scar flooding... are fairly certain. Overnight relative humidity recoveries look to
be good to excellent through the work week. Periods of poor to fair
ventilation can be expected...especially across the north on
Sunday...portions of the west on Monday and Tuesday...and the
northeast to east Wednesday into Thursday.

05

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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