Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
500 PM MST Friday Dec 26 2014
00z taf cycle
much uncertainty in the 00z taf cycle with regard to the
development of freezing fog. Terminal most likely to be impacted
is ktcc...with klvs and ksaf being the new two in line. At
kgup and kfmn...lack of melting and much drier airmass moving in
may preclude fog development. At kabq and kaeg...paltry precipitation
mostly evaporated...so likelihood of fog development is low with
very little moisture in the lowest portion of the boundary layer.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with light
Previous discussion...336 PM MST Friday Dec 26 2014...
a winter storm will continue to exit the area to the northeast
tonight with snow wrapping around the system and over northern areas.
Most of the accumulating precipitation should end by midnight. A
secondary upper level trough will amplify over New Mexico Saturday
and Saturday night keeping temperatures 8 to 20 degrees below
normal. The below normal temperatures will persist through at
least Thursday...getting even colder with the arrival Arctic air
from the northeast Monday and Monday night. The eastern plains may
not rise above freezing for around 3 days next week. Easterly upslope
flow with the front should also lead to some light snow along and
east of the Central Mountain chain at times. Then...models are in
fair agreement on a large low pressure system crossing the area
from the west with widespread snow around new years evening and New
satellite imagery depicts drier air aloft moving over northwest
and central areas. This indicates the Winter Weather Advisory in
effect for northwest areas is on track to expire at 6 PM. The
Central Highlands and eastern plains may also see accumulating
precipitation end in the early evening...so the swing shift will
need to consider whether or not to allow that Winter Weather
Advisory to keep going. Models continue to favor the sangre Delaware
cristos and northeast Highlands for accumulating snow into the
Used model surface relative humidity forecasts and MOS guidance to paint
areas of freezing fog over east central and northern areas late
tonight into Saturday morning. Locations with fresh snow on the
ground and clearing skies after midnight will be favored for fog
formation. Also undercut consensus guidance a few degrees in
places that now have snow on the ground.
Arctic air will arrive with Monday/Monday nights back door cold
front...which will be backed by a 1053 mb high in eastern Montana.
Northeast areas will drop below freezing Sunday night...and may
not rise above freezing again until Thursday. High temperatures
may not get out of the single digits or low teens on Tuesday
across much of the northeast. Even Roswell may have a 60 hour
spell below freezing Monday night until Thursday...but readings
wont be as brutal as those across the northeast. The easterly
upslope flow snow ratios should be unusually large with such cold
temperatures and models depicting some accumulations each period
through much of the coming week. The front will plunge into the
Rio Grande Valley with some potentially strong East Canyon winds
Monday night through Tuesday.
With plenty of cold air in place...the new years evening/day storm
system should easily produce widespread snow. Models are off a bit
on track and timing...but they do agree a potentially significant
winter weather outbreak for much of the forecast area.
Pacific storm system will gradually pull out of the area rest of
today into this evening. Wetting precipitation would be most likely
across the NC mountains and NE plains/Highlands. Excellent recoveries
expected tonight. Winds will die down when the sun GOES down.
Drier conditions this weekend. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal. Humidity values will lower...especially on Sunday as the
temperatures warm. Southern portions of the area will be
impacted by a strong middle level dry slot or intrusion on Sunday.
Tried to adjust dewpoints across the high terrain accordingly.
Otherwise...snow melt from the current system will provide tricky
forecasting conditions...in terms of relative humidity and dewpoint this weekend.
Ventilation Will Tank Saturday but rise some on Sunday as the middle
level wind gradient accelerates. Still looking at some breezy/windy
conditions buffeting the high terrain and areas to the east of the
central mountains...especially i40 corridor...Sunday afternoon.
Models remain consistent with dragging a chilly airmass into eastern
portions of the forecast area on Monday. This airmass will push
westward through the Central Mountain gaps into western areas Monday
night/Tuesday. Some precipitation/snow is expected to arrive with
the Arctic front and impact the east slopes of the central mountains the
most Monday night through Wednesday. Models still keep the main
upper level Pacific energy west of the area prior to Wednesday
night. Latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) place the cold upper low over Las Vegas Nevada
Wednesday afternoon. They have adjusted the storm track slightly
since the last model runs so still some run to run inconsistencies.
Either way...the main precipitation period/snow/ would be Wednesday
night through Friday. There is a strong potential the system would
be a classic slow moving/deep closed low thus wetting precipitation
appears likely. Will continue to monitor. Temperatures next week
would remain below normal...especially across the eastern plains
until conditions can modify late week. Humidity values appear to be
quite high except residual impacts from the middle level dry slot on
Monday across the south. Ventilation appears to be quite varied
depending on location and time period.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following