Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
554 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
00z taf cycle
upper level low churning over Arizona will continue to provide enough
lift and instability for rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to continue into the evening
and overnight over nm. Most of the activity will be west of the
Central Mountain chain through approx 04z...but then models suggest that
another large area of precipitation will develop over portions of the ec
and southeast plains thereafter. A few strong to severe storms remain
possible through the evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the
main threats. The strongest storms may produce periods of MVFR or
brief IFR ceilings and visibilities as well as Montana obscurations. Patchy fog
may develop between 09z and 12z where better rains occurred today.
Previous discussion...338 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015...
cool and unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a slow
moving upper level low pressure system approaches southwest New
Mexico from the west...then tracks southward to the Gulf of
California. A back door cold front will also arrive from the
northeast Thursday night and Friday. Through Friday...southeast
and east central areas may receive around 3 inches of additional
rainfall...with around 1 inch of rain elsewhere along and east of
the Central Mountain chain...and lighter amounts farther west.
There will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms each day mainly
along and south of Interstate 40. The upper low is forecast to
retrograde west of the Baja California peninsula this weekend allowing drier
and warmer weather to develop over New Mexico.
it will be difficult to rule out thunderstorms anywhere tonight
and especially this evening...but the best moisture and
instability favors southeast areas. There appears to be enough
instability and shear for some strong to severe
thunderstorms...mainly south of I-40. Like last night...south and
southeast winds should bring patchy fog and low clouds to eastern
locations south of The Caprock and west of The Caprock to the
Central Mountain chain.
The upper low should reach new mexicos bootheel by Wednesday
allowing some drier and warmer air over northwest areas...but keeping
southern and east central areas socked in with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Again Wednesday night...the
upper low should draw enough low level easterly upslope flow over
southeast and east central areas for another bout of patchy fog
and low clouds into Thursday morning. A gusty East Canyon wind
will probably also develop in the middle and lower Rio Grande
Valley Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The East Canyon wind
may die down some Thursday night...only to redevelop Friday with
the arrival of the back door cold front.
Dry weather will take over by late Saturday and should persist
through the first half of the coming work week as the upper low
shifts westward over the Pacific Ocean. High temperatures should
climb above normal again along the Colorado border starting
Saturday...then spread to the remainder of the forecast area
Monday through middle week as a staunch high pressure system builds
over the area.
as of middle afternoon a potent closed upper level low was
centered near Las Vegas Nevada...moving slowly to east. Forecast models
still agree pretty well with the track of this system east then southeast
across west central into Southeast Arizona by roughly midday Wednesday. Enough
moisture and dynamic lift in advance of this system will continue to
trigger scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms
through this evening...with some diminishment in coverage and intensity
later tonight. Widespread wetting rains are still looking pretty
likely nearly all areas late this afternoon through Wednesday night with heavy
rainfall amounts greater than an inch most likely across the east-
Central Plains...though otherwise most any locale near and espec
south of Interstate 40 may see more isolated inch or greater amts.
Wednesday night through Thursday night will see the low drop southward into northwest
Mexico which will slowly spread the more significant and widespread
rain into the southeast third to perhaps half of the state. Period of
moderate east winds below canyons into the middle Rio Grande Valley is
poss Wednesday night and into Thursday as a fairly deep layer of east to southeast winds
come into place over this area due to circulation around the upper
low. Thereafter...into the weekend...upper low will start easing
back westward as high pressure aloft builds over southern nm.
Extended models generally agree that the the closed low will
eventually get picked back up by the westerlies and head back toward
nm or the Great Basin latter half of next week. This scenario should
bring back a period of at least moderately above normal daytime
temperatures for early to middle week next week.
Ventilation rates will become fair to good over much of the forecast
area Wednesday with some poor pockets near and just east of the Central
Mountain chain. Some improvement mainly west and central Thursday...followed
by worsening rates in this same general area into the weekend
decrease Friday through the weekend.