Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1136 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015
06z taf cycle
after 1st round of severe weather over the eastern plains the 2nd batch
of -tsra is developing along and behind the back door cold front.
Expect activity to become widespread area of rain west/ embedded -tsra.
Greatest impacts from low ceilings/visibilities expected along The East Slope
south and east to near krow. Gap winds entering the rgv currently
with gusts of 25-30kts. Aww criteria to 35kts at kabq may occur
briefly but confidence low on issuance. Clouds and rain will very
slowly exit the east after sunrise Saturday. -Shra/thunderstorms and rain will develop
around the high terrain of central/western nm after 21z where the
focus of the current frontal boundary washes out.
Previous discussion...939 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015...
updated grids to remove the severe T storm watch headlines and the
severe wording...though a few strong storms could redevelop a
couple hours either side of midnight. Latest NAM more bullish for
southeast third of nm while hrrr model indicates more the NE third or so
of the state. Only a few modest showers up in NE as of this
issuance. Thus trimmed back probability of precipitation significantly for rest of pre
midnight hours with less significant cutting back after midnight
as at least some additional development expected. Zone forecast
product already out.
Previous discussion...316 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015...
the warming and drying trend continues today with another round of
showers and thunderstorms focusing across northeast and east
central portions of the area where a few storms may become severe.
A backdoor cold front will push southwest across the area tonight
into Saturday resulting in gusty East Canyon/gap winds in the Rio
Grande and upper Tularosa valleys. Some cooling Saturday behind
the front across the eastern plains will result in a downtrend in
thunderstorms there...but moisture moving in behind the front will
result in a round of late day thunderstorms over the central and
western mountains. The warming trend resumes Sunday with another
round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms forecast.
Temperatures will generally be above normal next week as a ridge
of high pressure shifts overhead and dry air moves in behind it
leading to a several days with little to no chance for
round of convection ongoing across the northeast Highlands into
the northeast and east Central Plains. However...surface based
instability is not as impressive as yesterday with dewpoint
temperatures 5-10 degrees lower...but with much improved
directional shear severe storms are imminent. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for much of the east. The
backdoor front will continue to provide a focus for initiation
through the afternoon and early evening hours across the northeast
and east Central Plains. The 18z NAM is showing a weak shortwave
trough moving southeast across southern Colorado and NE New Mexico
overnight with renewed chances for storms across the eastern
The backdoor front is still forecast to push through the Central
Mountain chain tonight...resulting in gusty East Canyon/gap winds
in the brio grande and upper Tularosa valleys. Winds are
currently forecast just below advisory criteria. Westward low
layer moisture transport in the frontal layer through Saturday
will result in a late-developing round of storms along the central
and western higher terrain with movement off to the south or
southeast into the evening hours.
A ridge of high pressure will shift over the area Sunday into
Monday with 500mb heights reaching up to 588-589dam...which will
be more than sufficient to bring-on a renewed warming trend.
Slow-moving daytime heating triggered storms are forecast Sunday
and Monday...following normal diurnal trends. Highs will actually
be above normal most areas Monday through at least Wednesday as
the ridge axis shift east and dry westerlies punch in...with a
broad low amplitude troughing pattern over the western Continental U.S.. next
week will certainly feel more seasonal than what we saw for much
drier conditions with isolated higher based showers/storms will
impact western/central areas rest of today into this evening.
Gusty outflow winds would be the main threat from this activity.
Dryline storms of the wetter variety would be found across the
eastern plains. This activity should go well into the overnight
hours and actually enhance in spatial coverage due to a back door
cold frontal plunge. Higher dewpoints and humidity will get pushed
westward overnight due to the frontal push and make it to the
Continental Divide...perhaps a bit further.
The higher moisture will set the stage for some wetting rain
possibilities between The Divide and central mountains and adjacent High
Plains on Saturday. Humidity values will be higher across
western/central areas compared to todays results. Temperatures will also
cool and be near to above normal along and west of The Divide and
below normal to the east of The Divide. The surface wind flow is not
expected to be too strong except for near the Central Mountain gaps
during the morning hours.
The subtropical ridge is still depicted to build over the area
Sunday through early next week. Moisture trapped within the ridge
will gradually mix out in the form of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. This activity will trend drier as the days
progress and look for small footprints of marginally wetting rain by
Monday. Gusty outflow winds would remain a concern. The activity
should be much less by Tuesday. Both the European model (ecmwf)/GFS support this
trend. European model (ecmwf) is a bit more bullish for dryline storms across the
east on Tuesday however.
The surface wind gradient should pick up during the earlier half of
next week as the ridge gradually breaks down and allows the winds
aloft to strengthen. Abundant mixing heights should lead to deep
mixing and provide gustier wind flows...especially tues/Wed. Went a
little above model guidance for this period. Dry slotting will also
lower surface humidity values and provide several hours of single
digits across western/central areas. Localized strong wind/low
humidity and higher Haines values will start to show up during this
period although fuel conditions arent too bad...especially with an
influx of Greenup. Confidence is moderate to high based on the
recent trends in the models but this would be a pattern change of
Another Pacific trough may sharpen up to the west during late next
week and could provide another round of showers/storms across the
forecast area. European model (ecmwf) models appears to be more bullish for that
trend versus the GFS but will monitor. Storms could initially start
out on the drier side across western/central areas.