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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
552 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Aviation...
00z taf cycle

Showers and thunderstorms will be more active across the northern
half of New Mexico this evening and likely into the early morning
hours. A weak surface front backed into the northeast part of the
state...and while activity has not yet been very widespread
there...clusters and lines of storms are expected to continue
sagging southward out of Colorado and into much of northern New
Mexico. Hefty downpours could temporarily reduce
ceilings/visibility to the MVFR/IFR category...and gusty downburst
winds will also accompany storms. The coverage and chances for
storms will decrease south of Interstate 40. After a lull in
activity during the late morning...new batches of storms will
redevelop over much of northern and central New Mexico into
Thursday afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion...318 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015...
synopsis...
another active period of showers and storms is on tap for the
remainder of this week. The upper level high pressure center will
focus west of New Mexico through Friday...while moisture begins
increasing from the east. Storms will steer southward and produce
locally heavy rainfall...especially over the northern mountains
and the northeast plains. The upper high center will drift east
over New Mexico and weaken through the weekend. This will decrease
the overall coverage of storms and increase temperatures...however
storm motions will be very slow with more heavy rainfall. By next
week... the upper high will move eastward into Texas and deliver a
more traditional south to north monsoon flow for central and
western New Mexico.

&&

Discussion...
an elongated 595dm 500 mb pressure ridge stretches from the Great
Basin southeast across nm into West Texas. The water vapor loop shows a
sinuous moisture stream rounding the high while dry air is
entrenched beneath the ridge. At the surface a moist boundary is
oozing SW across NE nm...waiting to focus the next round of
showers and storms. Models are in good agreement with the vast
majority of convective activity staying along and north of I-40
tonight. Storm motions will be slow to the south through Friday with
this pattern resulting in more locally heavy rainfall...especially
over the northern high terrain and the NE plains. A Flash Flood
Watch should be considered for portions of this area both Thursday
and Friday.

By Fourth of July...the high center weakens to 590dm while drifting
east over nm. Originally Saturday looked to be less active...however
the latest guidance shows a well-defined 700mb trough axis working
east over the area with abundant moist instability in place over
central and western areas. Nearly stationary storms in this very
weak steering flow pattern will also continue the threat for flash
flooding...but farther east into central nm.

Confidence on the coverage pattern beyond Saturday is lower as the
position of the upper high center has been inconsistent from model
guidance. The GFS has been holding strong on drifting the high to
the east and allowing a more traditional monsoon flow pattern from
south to north over nm. The latest rendition has the high overhead.
The European model (ecmwf) was showing the high building SW of nm but now has it to
our east. Either way...several notable back door frontal boundaries
are evidenced at the surface while overall weak steering flow is in
place over the state. At a minimum...moisture recycling processes
will keep storms going around the high terrain all of next week.

Guyer

&&

Fire weather...
the summertime middle level high pressure center will shift from
over the Great Basin tonight through Friday to over The Four
Corners Saturday...then more squarely over nm Sunday. A back door
cold front will plunge into the forecast area Thursday and reach
the Continental Divide by Friday morning ushering moist easterly
and southeasterly low level flow. This will provide an uptick in
shower and thunderstorm coverage across the area Thursday through
Friday night with scattered to numerous cells favoring easterly
upslope flow locations.

When the upper high reaches The Four Corners and nm Friday through
the weekend...models depict a rich monsoon moisture plume under it
arcing northward over western areas and northeastward over northern
areas. This will keep precipitable waters around 1 inch and storms will move very
slowly due to the proximity of the upper high. Thus...there will be
a continued risk of minor flooding in general and flash flooding in
and below burn scars.

An upper level trough will cross the central rockies early next
week. Models suggest it will split the upper high into lobes forming
southeast and southwest of nm Monday through early next week. This
trough will shift the monsoon moisture plume eastward Monday and
Monday night giving central and eastern areas a good shot at wetting
precipitation. In the wake of this trough a moisture rich back door
cold front will dive through the area Tuesday as the moisture plume
settles over central areas.

All this moisture will cause temperatures to trend downward Thursday
through Friday...when highs will vary from near normal out west to
as much as 7 degrees below normal across parts of the east. Near
normal readings this weekend should give way to below normal
readings central and east with the next cold front on Tuesday.

Ventilation will generally be good or better...except for pockets of
poor ventilation over western areas Saturday...north central areas
Sunday...northeast areas Monday and probably also Tuesday.

44

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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