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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
301 PM MDT Sat may 30 2015

Synopsis...
a warming trend will kick-off Sunday as a ridge of high pressure
moves over the area...bringing more of a Summer feel to much of
New Mexico. Temperatures will generally be above normal for much
of the upcoming week as dry air punches in from the west. Prior to
the arrival of dry air over the next couple of days...afternoon
and evening thunderstorms are likely and will favor the higher
terrain and adjacent Highlands. A pattern change is on the horizon
for late in the week and into next weekend as a West Coast trough
pulls moisture up across the region from the south... leading to
renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of New
Mexico.

&&

Discussion...
unimpressive instability this afternoon west of the Central
Mountain chain with surface dewpoint temperatures mixing down into
the 30s compared to almost 10 degrees higher this morning. Along
the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain and over the
adjacent Highlands...20z laps analysis is showing SBCAPE values of
700-1300 j/kg with lifted indices of -3 to -6c. Wind profile
showing good veering with height although very little speed shear.
Perhaps a later start today given cooler afternoon temperatures
east of the Central Mountain chain...so look for a few strong
storms by early evening between Raton...Clines Corners...Santa
Rosa and Ruidoso.

A ridge of high pressure will continue to expand over the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin overnight then shift over the central
and southern rockies on Sunday into Monday...leading to a warming
trend with temperatures forecast to go above normal areawide.
Good surface heating and adequate moisture will lead to daytime
heating triggered showers and storms Sunday and Monday...which
will follow normal diurnal trends. Drier air will begin to
infiltrate the west on Monday as a West Coast trough directs the
Pacific dry slot over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. This
will shift the best chances for rain slightly further east Monday
afternoon...then shifting even further east Monday night with dry
air overtaking most of the state by Tuesday. Many locales will see
the highest temperature readings so far this calendar year in the
upcoming week. At the Albuquerque sunport...we may see the first
90 degree day as early as Monday although our forecast holds off
until Tuesday with 91.

The forecast for late week and into the weekend is looking wetter
with both the 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) showing a deeper West Coast trough
and the potential to tap some tropical moisture. Kept slight
chance probability of precipitation areawide for Friday through Saturday...but watch for
a possible uptrend with more/subsequent model run-to-run
consistency.

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&&

Fire weather...
confidence increasing for a pattern change during the next
several days. This means warmer/drier and eventually breezier
conditions from the more typical west/southwest direction. Models
are hinting at some more moisture late next week or the following
weekend due to a Pacific trough. Either way...looking at an
extended period of low humidity/high Haines values and breezier
conditions Tuesday through Thursday.

Upper ridge will gradual build over the area today through Monday.
Moisture trapped within this ridge will mix out in the form of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The footprint of wetting
rain will lessen each day with more of a mix of wet/dry activity
during this period. The mountain areas have the best chance of seeing
some wetting rain. Gusty outflow winds would be a concern. Humidity
values will gradually lower while temperatures warm. Haines values
would eventually start getting into the 5/6 range Sunday/Monday but
not all areas. High temperatures should be a few degrees above normal
wester/central areas Sunday and then be near to above normal pretty
much areawide on Monday. Not a lot of wind expected on Sunday except
for near showers/storms but the gradient overall should increase on
Monday...especially eastern plains and the far west.

By Tuesday...most of the shower/thunderstorm action should be done
as a middle level dry intrusion moves over the area. Relative humidity values will
plummet while temperatures remain above normal between 5 to 10
degrees. Haines values should be a solid 5/6 and mix heights should
be near to above normal. Breezes will also pick up. Perhaps some
localized red flag conditions across portions of the east. Although
fuel conditions are pretty green right now so the threat of large
fires is reduced there.

The trend mentioned above should continue Wednesday/Thursday as the
ridge softens or lessens in strength. The Tuesday through Thursday
period represents a gradual break down of the upper ridge pattern.
Some breeziness will continue Wednesday/Thursday with relative humidity values falling well
into the single digits. Temperatures would remain above normal on Wednesday but
gradually lower to near normal on Thursday thanks to the approach of
a Pacific trough. Wind speeds appear to be a limiter in terms of red
flag...plus fuel conditions...so will monitor that trend. Pretty
typical for the earlier half of June. The big storyline would be the
warmer temperatures and much lower relative humidity values compared to what we have been
experiencing.

Models hint at some moisture flowing into the area late week or the
following weekend. This would be due to a southerly fetch off the
subtropics across the middle levels as well as a fetch from the Sierra
Madre. Depending on how long the Pacific low sits to the west...this
could be a drier lightning scenario but the atmosphere could moisten
enough to support wetter storms as the pattern unfolds.

50

&&

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
main ts coverage will be found over the western/central mountains
today. Steering flow will take the storms towards the southeast
and could impact some of the terminal sites for brief periods of
time. Likely ts impacts are at lvs but cant rule out many of the
other sites with exception of gup/fmn. Using vcsh at many of the
sites and will update based on cell development during afternoon.
Gusty outflow wind main concern with gusts up to 35 knots possible.
Abq/aeg/saf certainly has that chance later this afternoon for
outflow wind gust impacts and passing high based showers/isolated ts.
Many of the models Show Low ceiling development across the ec/southeast
plains later tonight. Indicated this potential at lvs/tcc and row.
Most bullish at tcc but may not last as long as some of the models
indicate. Current low ceilings will erode away during the next 1-2
hours.

50

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 52 89 56 91 / 5 5 5 5
Dulce........................... 42 82 45 85 / 10 5 20 10
Cuba............................ 47 82 49 86 / 5 20 30 30
Gallup.......................... 45 84 49 86 / 5 10 10 5
El Morro........................ 44 82 48 84 / 20 20 20 10
Grants.......................... 45 83 50 85 / 20 10 20 10
Quemado......................... 47 81 51 84 / 20 10 10 10
Glenwood........................ 54 87 55 90 / 10 20 20 5
Chama........................... 39 76 42 80 / 10 30 30 30
Los Alamos...................... 50 79 53 83 / 10 40 40 50
Pecos........................... 48 78 51 83 / 20 30 30 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 41 77 44 80 / 20 20 30 50
Red River....................... 37 69 40 71 / 30 40 40 50
Angel Fire...................... 35 71 39 74 / 30 40 40 50
Taos............................ 41 79 45 82 / 10 10 20 30
Mora............................ 43 76 46 79 / 30 40 40 50
Espanola........................ 49 82 52 86 / 10 20 20 30
Santa Fe........................ 49 80 52 84 / 10 20 20 40
Santa Fe Airport................ 50 83 53 86 / 10 20 20 20
Albuquerque foothills........... 56 85 59 87 / 10 10 20 20
Albuquerque heights............. 59 86 62 88 / 10 10 10 20
Albuquerque valley.............. 55 88 57 90 / 10 10 10 20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 87 60 89 / 10 10 10 20
Los Lunas....................... 55 88 58 90 / 10 10 10 20
Rio Rancho...................... 55 86 59 88 / 10 10 10 20
Socorro......................... 57 88 58 90 / 20 10 20 40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 82 55 83 / 20 20 30 30
Tijeras......................... 50 83 53 85 / 10 20 20 20
Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 82 49 85 / 30 20 20 20
Clines Corners.................. 49 80 52 83 / 30 20 20 20
Gran Quivira.................... 51 81 54 83 / 30 20 20 30
Carrizozo....................... 53 82 56 86 / 40 10 20 20
Ruidoso......................... 48 77 53 81 / 50 30 40 30
Capulin......................... 48 79 52 82 / 30 20 40 50
Raton........................... 47 81 50 84 / 30 20 30 30
Springer........................ 48 82 52 85 / 30 20 30 30
Las Vegas....................... 46 79 49 82 / 30 20 30 30
Clayton......................... 51 82 57 88 / 10 10 20 20
Roy............................. 50 81 53 86 / 30 20 30 30
Conchas......................... 55 85 58 89 / 30 20 20 20
Santa Rosa...................... 54 87 56 91 / 30 20 20 20
Tucumcari....................... 56 87 61 90 / 20 5 20 20
Clovis.......................... 55 81 58 88 / 0 5 10 20
Portales........................ 56 82 59 89 / 0 5 10 10
Fort Sumner..................... 56 84 57 89 / 20 5 10 20
Roswell......................... 60 87 60 94 / 10 5 10 10
Picacho......................... 53 83 56 89 / 30 20 10 30
Elk............................. 52 78 55 84 / 30 30 20 40

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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