Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1133 PM MDT Friday Aug 29 2014
06z taf cycle
dry northwest flow aloft will continue over nm tonight through Saturday
evening. A weak backdoor front sagging into the NE plains will
continue to help focus isolated weak showers/thunderstorms north
of a klvs to ktcc line. Showers and storms will continue until around
09z. SW winds will increase somewhat Saturday as Lee surface trough
strengthens. A few cumulus clouds will be the rule most areas Saturday
afternoon with perhaps a brief shower/storm or two possible northern
mountains. Surface winds will gradually diminish several hours after
Previous discussion...305 PM MDT Friday Aug 29 2014...
a few showers and thunderstorms are possible across northeast New
Mexico tonight as a weak disturbance moves overhead. After
tonight...little if any thunderstorm activity is expected through
the weekend into early next week. Instead...breezy to windy
conditions will return over the Holiday weekend...especially
Sunday. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Late next
week...moisture may start to seep northward into the
state...increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
12z sounding tells the story...much drier air is in place over the
state...with an inversion just above 600 mb that is keeping the
bubbling cumulus in check. There does look to be a weak disturbance
moving over NE nm overnight...eroding the cap...and hi res models
showing some convection developing from the sangre Delaware cristo east
slopes...to near Tucumcari. Dewpoints are also dropping as mixing
continues this afternoon. This should generally mean that low temperatures
tonight will again be colder than what guidance is suggesting...
especially out west where cloud cover will be minimal.
Broad trough over the western Continental U.S. Developing on Saturday. This
combined with a strengthening Lee side trough should make for a
breezy day...especially across the east. As the base of the trough
crosses The Rockies on Sunday...widespread breezy conditions are
expected...with windy conditions possible across the northeast.
Temperatures will generally warm through the weekend...and eastern areas may
be upwards of 10 degrees above normal by Sunday. Meanwhile...its
getting to be the time of year where low temperatures are nearing the
freezing mark in the mountains Angel Fire and Eagle Nest hit the
freezing mark this morning...and with dry conditions
prevailing...the freezing mark may be hit again this weekend.
Elongated upper high setting up shop from southern Arizona eastward
across Texas and the southeastern states early next week. Thus...very little
if any convection is expected as dry westerly flow continues over
the County Warning Area. Daytime temperatures will stay near to above normal. One
difference in the models comes Tuesday...where the European model (ecmwf) is showing
a back door front making its way through the plains...where the GFS
does not. Something to keep an eye on.
Some better moisture looks to start moving north on Thursday as the
next trough dives down the Pacific coast and the upper high centers
itself over Oklahoma. However...the upper high remains somewhat
elongated westward into nm...thus it will be difficult to get a
direct moisture tap. Instead...moisture may take the Scenic Route
through Arizona before shifting into nm. Nonetheless... some...
perhaps modest...moisture will move back into the state...increasing
precipitation chances through next weekend.
a potent dry intrusion indicated by water vapor and the morning
sounding at Albuquerque has invaded just about the entire region.
Surface dewpoints even across the plains are falling into the 30s.
A weak ridge centered over southwest nm is allowing for very weak
transport winds aloft and this has translated to variable terrain
dominated winds for much of the area. Tonight will see another
night of inversion dominated relative humidity recoveries with very cool temperatures
over the northern and western valleys. Models indicated a few
very light showers developing along the sangre Delaware cristo mountains
sliding into the plains...but any precipitation amounts will be very
light if any.
Tomorrow will be a near repeat of today...with temperatures even a little
warmer and relative humidity values slightly drier. Winds will trend up a tad as
zonal flow develops aloft. Surface Lee trough will keep surface
dewpoints values low across the east with late afternoon breezes.
Temperatures out east will also be very warm with readings 5 to 10f above
normal for late August. By Sunday...flow aloft will increase even
further and surface Lee troughing will deepen to near 997mb. This
will help mix widespread breezy conditions across the region...
especially the east. High Haines values will accompany surface relative humidity
values in the 15pct range...so critical fire conditions are likely
for several hours for the area along Interstate 40 east of Santa
Rosa north to Clayton. Surface fuels will not favor a fire growth
pattern so nice highlights are in store.
Monday and Tuesday will also be very nice with warm to hot temperatures
and very dry conditions. The ridge will re-build overhead thus
winds will slacken off each day. Models had previously indicated
the core of the upper high over would center over the lower MS
River Valley with deep return moisture into nm. However...now
guidance shows are more sprawling high center westward into nm
with the monsoon moisture plume centered over Arizona and Southern California.