Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
603 PM MDT sun Apr 26 2015
00z taf cycle
widespread showers and isolated ts will continue below the upper
level low now centered just east of abq for the next few hours.
Precipitation will diminish after sunset across the west and perhaps by 06z
across the Rio Grande Valley. However...a back door front already
sliding down the plains will be a focus for rain showers and thunderstorms and rain through the
evening and overnight. Widespread precipitation is expected to develop behind
it...with ceilings and visibilities lowering considerably this evening...likely
into the IFR category. Klvs and ktcc taf sites will see the most
impact...as gusty NE winds will accompany the front and precipitation.
Rain will also transition back to snow above 7000ft tonight...and
several inches of snow are expected for the sangre Delaware cristo mountains
mountain obscurations are likely.
Previous discussion...337 PM MDT sun Apr 26 2015...
upper level closed low to track slowly east across the east half
of the state tonight and out of the state by Monday morning. Heavy
snow accumulations are still likely across the sangre Delaware cristos
east across western and northernmost portions of the northeast
Highlands near the Colorado border including Raton Pass and
Johnson Mesa tonight and Monday morning. Residual moisture will
likely result in a few showers or thunderstorms over the northern
and western mountains Monday and Tuesday afternoon...otherwise a
drying and warming trend will get underway Tuesday and continue
through at least Thursday. A few spotty showers and storms may
redevelop across parts of the state by late week.
plenty of precipitation to come from the large closed low over
central New Mexico as of middle afternoon. Moderate to heavy amounts
of snow still expected across the sangre Delaware cristos with most or
at least parts of the Raton Pass and Johnson Mesa area also getting
in on significant snowfall. The exact overnight and Monday morning snow
elevation in the lower terrain area just east of the sangres is
still a little unclear as some Gulf moisture above the surface
tries to get into the picture combined with a back door cold front
moving through...introducing slightly colder air down low. Have
maintained the earlier issued winter storm warnings for the
sangres and the Raton/Johnson mesas zones...though perhaps not all
of the latter zone will be impacted as dewpoints may remain too
high even late tonight and early Monday. Far western part of the
northeast Highlands zone to SW of Raton may also have to be
watched for possible rain to snow changeover between midnight and
dawn. Rains generally will be heaviest across northeast and east
Central Plains tonight into Monday morning. Precipitation will trend down
starting Monday afternoon...though Monday and Tuesday aftns a few showers
and storms may fire mainly over the higher terrain and drift to
the south. Daytime temperatures will warm significantly a good portion of
Upper level high pressure ridge to translate across the state Thursday
into Friday with only isolated shower and storm potential across the
high terrain. Temperatures to rise back above seasonal norms during this
current short and long-term weather trends over the area will act to
delay the fire season by several days if not weeks in a couple areas.
A widespread wetting rainfall event with significantly below normal
temperatures is unfolding over the area. Total precipitation amounts in the
northeast and east Central Plains will average 1 to 2 inches through
Monday. Meanwhile...temperatures are cold enough in the high terrain
for snow accumulations above 9500 feet today then lowering tonight. A
few to several inches are likely...particularly from the sangre Delaware
cristos eastward along the Colorado border/Raton ridge.
The frontal boundary pushing southwest over the plains will slide
into the Rio Grande Valley tonight and to the Arizona border Monday. This
will help force another round of afternoon and evening storms along
The Divide. This activity will have wetting rain potential as well.
The east will very slowly clear out. Recoveries into Tuesday morning
will be very good/excellent all areas...with even some patchy fog
possible. Moisture recycling and afternoon instability will lead to
more mountain showers Tuesday...particularly along The Divide again.
A ridge will then build west of the area Wednesday and usher in some
drier air. Very good/excellent recoveries again...light winds...and
clearing skies may favor some more patchy fog. Temperatures Wednesday will
trend up several degrees but still remain near to slightly below
normal. Thursday looks to be the warmest day over the region as the
upper ridge crests overhead. Deteriorating vent rates are expected
during the Wednesday/Thursday period with the lighter winds aloft.
The ridge is then shown to break down Friday and allow for winds to
increase through the weekend. Some more afternoon showers/storms
are still noted over central nm during this period however wetting
footprints will be small. Confidence on the extended weather pattern
has decreased since yesterday as models are flip-flopping with how
an upper low will evolve over Southern California.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for the following