Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
852 PM MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
focused greatest probability of precipitation over the northeast and east Central Plains
remainder of tonight as a cold front sags south into the area.
Nudged values much lower for central and western nm where storms
already diminished to middle and high level cloud cover.
Previous discussion...528 PM MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015...
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions with light winds prevail and are forecast to
persist through the taf period outside of showers/storms. Isolated
storms this evening may come close to ktcc...kgup and perhaps
krow...but otherwise forecast to remain clear of terminals. Storms
that develop Friday afternoon mostly likely to impact klvs
initially...then krow and perhaps ksaf/kabq/kaeg by early Friday
evening. MVFR impacts are expected with storms.
Previous discussion...252 PM MDT Thursday Aug 27 2015...
a backdoor front will move southwest across eastern New Mexico
tonight then west into central portions of the area late Friday...
enhancing chances for storms through the weekend central and west.
Moisture will remain across much of the state next week with
daily rounds of storms and temperatures at or slightly above
12z kabq sounding showed a precipitable water of 1.17 inch...which is well above
normal and near the 99th percentile as far as daily climatology
is concerned. A little daytime heating combined with the moisture-
loaded atmosphere is yielding another round of storms today...but
very little directional shear is making for short-lived updrafts
with popcorn-type storms for the most-part. Some small hail is
likely with these storms due to drying in the Upper/Middle levels of
the atmosphere coming into northwest portions of the area...which
will make for more impressive lapse rates given some evaporative
cooling. Strong/gusty winds likely as well...mainly across the
east central and southeast plains where surface temperatures are rising
into the middle 90s.
The trough ejecting into the central U.S. Plains will send a
backdoor front down the eastern plains tonight into early
Friday...then west through the Central Mountain chain Friday
evening. This front will help to enhance thunderstorm chances
along the Central Mountain chain late Friday...then a bit further
west Saturday before the upper level ridge axis shifts east over
the state on Sunday...brining enhanced storm chances back to the
Rio Grande Valley and Central Mountain chain. Precipitable water trends will
generally be down during this period...but still forecast to
remain above normal most areas for late August. Temperatures
through the weekend will be at or slightly above normal.
Plenty of moisture will remain over the area through next week as
a troughing pattern sets-up over the Pacific northwest...extending south
along the West Coast. This pattern...combined with a slight
eastward jog of the upper high will allow moisture to stream north
over New Mexico through at least Wednesday before any downtrend.
So...expect daily rounds of storms with temperatures generally at
or slightly above normal to persist for the foreseeable future.
flow aloft has become northwesterly today and dry air is pushing
into northwest New Mexico. This drier air is expected to keep most shower
and thunderstorm activity over the southeast half or so of the
state this evening. Most activity will gradually diminish after
sunset. A weak backdoor cold front/boundary will drop into
northeast nm this evening and through the remainder of the eastern
plains overnight. The front is forecast to stall along the east
slopes of the Central Mountain chain during the day Friday before
pushing westward into the Rio Grande Valley and points west Friday
evening. Storms will favor the east slopes of the Central Mountain
chain and adjacent Highlands...particularly the sangre Delaware cristos.
Dry air expected to win out over west-central and northwest nm.
Low level moisture returns to western areas Friday night...setting
the stage for scattered thunderstorms along and near the Continental
Divide. Elsewhere...isolated activity is likely. Despite the upper
high building over western New Mexico Saturday night and Sunday...SW
flow near mountain top level is forecast to tap monsoon moisture
from southern Arizona. According to the GFS...this relatively deep
tap continues into Monday before drier air starts to work into northwest
and north-central nm Tuesday and Wednesday. European model (ecmwf)...however...keeps
the deep tap going through Wednesday before drying out areas north
of I-40 on Thursday. At any rate...an active weather pattern is
expected through early next week with uncertainty as to how the long
the deeper monsoon moisture continues to move in from the southwest.
Ventilation rates diminish Friday through the weekend with local
fair to poor rates forecast northwest and north central. More
widespread fair to poor rates possible early next week.