Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1029 am MST sun Feb 14 2016
18z taf cycle
periodic high cirrus will be the only clouds moving into New
Mexico over the next 24 hours...and VFR conditions will prevail at
all airports within the forecast area. Some gusty northwest winds
will develop today...mainly from the northwestern corner to the
central sections of the state...and higher terrain locations will
be most susceptible to some gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Winds will
diminish into the evening in lower elevations...but could stay
gusty along and downwind of ridge tops well into early Monday
Previous discussion...324 am MST sun Feb 14 2016...
a dry upper level trough will cross today with a surface cold
front. This will drop the high temperature a few to 13 degrees
from yesterdays near record warmth. Cool air will continue to
funnel into central and western areas Monday...but the east will
warm a few to several degrees as a surface trough in the Lee of
the southern rockies induces downslope flow. A ridge of high
pressure will cross from the west Tuesday and Wednesday with more
near record warmth possible. Temperatures will remain warm
Thursday...humidities will be quite low and breezy to windy
conditions will develop leading to fire weather concerns mainly
across southern and eastern areas.
models are coming into better agreement on the track and timing of
a surface trough that will cross the Great Basin in Route to the
northern rockies Thursday. This system could squeeze out a few
light showers across The Four Corners area and the mountains near
the Colorado border Thursday and Thursday night. In the wake of the
system temperatures should fall a few to several degrees
Friday...only to rebound most places Saturday.
a dry regime will persist most locations through the work week with
extended models hinting at increased chances of precipitation over
the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values below 15 percent will be common
Wednesday through Friday...with critical fire weather conditions
expected on Thursday east of the central mountains as gusty
southwest winds develop ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Upper level flow currently transitioning to the northwest as a
shortwave crosses New Mexico. At the surface...a wind shift
associated with an upper level shortwave north of New Mexico has
moved into the northeast plains this morning and will move through
the remainder of the extreme eastern plains before noon.
Elsewhere...breezy northwest surface winds will develop then
strengthen during the afternoon hours favoring the higher terrain.
Temperatures will decrease 5 to 15 degrees from the near record
values on Saturday and despite the cooling afternoon temperatures
will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow aloft will continue on Monday and an upper level
ridge builds off the West Coast...but the gradient will weaken
supporting lighter surface winds. Ventilation will range from poor
over the north central zones to fair and good elsewhere. Downslope
flow across the east will result in modest temperature increases.
As the ridge axis approaches New Mexico...more significant warming
will occur all but the extreme east on Tuesday and all zones on
Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values decrease in response...with a broad
area of relative humidity less than 15 percent by Wednesday. Relative humidity recoveries on
Wednesday night look to be fair most areas except the northern
higher terrain. Ventilation will decrease both days...with
widespread poor values on Wednesday.
By Thursday an upper level trough moves onshore over northern
California. Most moisture will remain north of New Mexico but gusty
southwest winds will result in critical fire weather conditions east
of the central mountains. Any chance of precipitation will be
limited to the northwest higher terrain where some snow is possible.
Winds relax a bit on Friday and with cooler temperatures relative humidity values
come up a bit though relative humidity values across the eastern plains will
remain below 15 percent.