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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1142 PM MDT Monday Apr 20 2015

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
residual middle and high level clouds will gradually dissipate
overnight with VFR conditions at all terminals. Similar weather
scenario on tap for Tuesday with slightly less -shra/-tsra
coverage as ridge axis moves overhead and temperatures aloft warm
slightly. Building cumulus will likely get a later start as a weak
subsidence inversion associated with the ridge slows vertical
mixing somewhat.

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Previous discussion...311 PM MDT Monday Apr 20 2015...
synopsis...
rather active weather pattern through this coming weekend...but
no major storms on the horizon. Most significant system will be
late this week.

Northwest flow will give way to weak ridging Tuesday followed by
southwest flow Wednesday into Friday. A storm that will organize
off the Southern California coast will move inland Thursday and cross nm
Thursday night into Friday. Weak ridging on Saturday will give
way to another short wave trough Sunday. Most active period after
today will be Thursday into Friday. Least active days probably
Tuesday and Saturday.

&&

Discussion...
an unstable atmosphere is producing plenty of cumulus clouds
across the forecast area this afternoon. But the lower levels
are super dry...thus not much rain reaching the ground...but
lots of gusty winds will continue into the evening near these
showers. Probably a little thunder and lightning as well.

A weak ridge of high pressure will position itself over nm on
Tuesday. Showers will cover less of the area and mainly focus
on the northern mountains. Temperatures will warm a few degrees
and be near to a little above normal most places.

The ridge will shift east Wednesday with southwest flow getting
underway...then strengthening Thursday and Friday. Winds will be
on the increase...peaking on Friday. A back door cold front will
sneak into the far northeast Wednesday producing the best chances
for showers and storms from the sangre Delaware cristos east to the Texas
border. We then look west for the next weather maker in the form
of a closed low. This storm will take shape off the Southern California
coast and move include Thursday. It will cross nm Thursday night
into Friday...at least according to the GFS. The Canadian and
European are a little slower. Regardless the most active time
looks to be the latter portion of this week. But this system
will be moving pretty quick...reducing chances for some decent
precipitation amounts. Temperatures will trend down for the end
of the week.

A ridge of high pressure will quickly develop over nm Saturday
only to be followed by the next upstream storm on Sunday. This
system will also be a fast mover and light precipitation chances
will favor the north. Warming on Saturday will level off Sunday.
Chj

&&

Fire weather...
instability showers will continue through early/middle evening
before the activity dissipates. Most of the activity will be the
non wetting kind. Gusty winds will be associated with it and the
cells will tend to move towards the east/southeast. Cloud to
ground lightning activity would be isolated.

The overall weather trend the next few days will be drier and
warmer. Wind speeds will also increase. A few showers and storms
will be around favoring the northern tier Tuesday/Wednesday. Most
of that activity will be on the drier side. Some localized red
flag criteria could be met across the Socorro County portion of
zone 106 late Wednesday afternoon as the southern breezes pick up
but a little more coverage is expected on Thursday ahead of a
Pacific/Southern California low. This would be coupled with near
normal temperatures...Haines 4/5 readings and higher mixing
heights. Overall...this week doesnt appear to be a big week for
widespread/long duration red flag conditions. Confidence is pretty
good about that. A moderately strong middle level dry intrusion will
move over the area later Tuesday through Wednesday night and
provide some single digit relative humidity values. Drier showers/storms...faster
moving with very gusty winds will be possible across
western/central areas on Thursday. Thursday appears to be a hybrid
day with stronger wind flow coming from various sources. These
storms would tend to be on the drier side and would impact drier
areas found across the west Central Highlands.

Residual unsettledness is still expected for Friday as part of the
low washes out to the east but another portion of the low re
develops to the west. Both European model (ecmwf)/GFS show this trend although
differ a little on the actual low center positions. The secondary
low should impact portions of nm during the weekend and continue
some shower/thunderstorm prospects...especially favoring the
northern tier. It doesnt appear the airmass would be unusually dry
but not looking at unusual moisture at this time either. Currently
projecting some breezy to windy conditions on Friday with breezier
west/northwest flow during the weekend although not as strong compared to
Friday. Perhaps some sporadic red flag conditions on Friday
although Haines values appear to be on the lower side so an
issuance may not be necessary across the east. 50

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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