Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
453 PM MST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
00z taf cycle
fairly low impact tafs for central and western terminals with
potential for MVFR ceilings in showers and windy/gusty conditions
behind a cold front Wednesday afternoon. More significant impacts
are forecast at klvs...ktcc and krow behind the cold front
Wednesday with the potential for IFR conditions in snow.
Previous discussion...305 PM MST Tuesday Mar 3 2015...
one more round of snow and cold temperatures through Wednesday
night then a drier and milder weather pattern through the rest
of the forecast period. A mostly light northwest flow will
dominate the forecast period. A weak disturbance and associated
back door cold front could impact the northeast Saturday but it
looks dry with not much cooler air behind it.
subtropical moisture tap will move out of nm tonight and in its
place will be a couple of upper level disturbances and a potent
surface cold front. The back door cold front has reached the
northeast corner of nm and should reach Clayton any minute now.
Temperatures will nose dive tonight across the east and recover
very little tomorrow. Highs again will be well below normal on
Wednesday...20 to 35 degrees lower than today. As for snow the
models continue to show light to moderate amounts developing
tonight over the north central and northeast the spreading south
Wednesday before diminishing and ending Wednesday night from
north to south. We will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the
upper Rio Grande Valley east to the far northeast plains from
midnight tonight to midnight Wednesday night. Advisories will be
likely extended farther south with this evening or with the early
Wednesday morning forecast package. Winds will be an issue along
the eastern plains behind the front. The Winter Weather Advisory
for the far NE plains will be for snow and blowing snow.
A break from the active weather pattern will commence Thursday
and should continue through early next week. Temperatures will
increase each day with the possible exception of Saturday in the
northeast. This would be due to a weak back door cold front. No
significant precipitation is expected with it...although we
cannot rule out a northern mountain snow shower Saturday or
Saturday night. Otherwise it will be dry through early next week.
critical fire weather conditions not expected through at least the
Plume of subtropical moisture stretched over south central to east
central nm early this afternoon will gradually be suppressed east
and southward tonight as the upper trough to our west finally swings
overhead and across the state Wednesday. While there has been a lull
in shower activity over the west and north today...with the
exception being parts of the southeast and east
central...precipitation will pick up tonight with the trough. In
addition...a significant cold front will push into the eastern
plains tonight and Wednesday. North to northeast winds will be
occasionally gusty as the front passes through. Northwest to north
winds will be also be gusty west and central Wednesday as a
disturbance in north to northwest flow aloft follows on the heels
of the exiting trough.
Light precipitation expected tonight and Wednesday...mainly in the
form of snow...as colder air moves in...will be most likely over the
north and east...with snow tapering off Wednesday night.
Temperatures Wednesday will fall to well below average particularly
across the east. A drier and much colder air mass will be in place
by Wednesday night...with lows generally 10 to 25 degrees below
average. Below average temperatures to persist through Saturday
although they will be closer to average by then.
Vent rates Wednesday will be good to excellent west and portions of
the eastern plains...with the east slopes of the central Montana chain
only fair to poor. Poor rates are expected overall Thursday and over
the vast majority of the forecast area Friday as well as Saturday. A
weak surface boundary in the plains Sunday will boost rates into the
good category for portions of the middle rgv across the Central
Highlands. Dry northwest flow may persist into early next week according to
the GFS...but buying into the ecwmf makes for a more muddled
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MST
Wednesday night for the following zones...