Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1124 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

06z taf cycle
scattered high cirrus clouds are currently streaming across
central to northern New Mexico just before midnight with middle level
clouds eroding beneath. Breezy to windy conditions will develop
late Sunday morning and into the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30
knots common in many locations. Moisture will be absent over most of
the state. This will inhibit the development of any showers or
thunderstorms Sunday...the only exception being east of a krow to
ktcc line where slightly better moisture may lead to a stray storm
or two.



Previous discussion...254 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014...
another quiet day as small showers having a hard time developing
into anything significant. A couple of upper level short wave
troughs will pass to our north through the remainder of this
Holiday weekend. Associated surface cold fronts will try and slip
into the northeast Sunday night and Monday night with limited
Success. The one thing we will experience is sharp increase in the
wind on Sunday. High pressure will build over New Mexico early
next week then shift to the east for the second half of next
week. This will draw moisture north into western and northern New
Mexico from Wednesday into next weekend. Overall coverage and
intensity of showers and storms are expected to increase each day.


a few small showers are trying to form over eastern New Mexico
this afternoon...mainly near the Texas border. No lightning yet in
the state. Will carry low chance probability of precipitation in the northeast to east
central areas for early this evening...figuring convection done
by 9 PM.

A short wave trough going by to the north Sunday will kick with
the wind machine for a day...especially along and north of I 40.
Temperatures will warm a few more degrees and approach record
highs in a few locations. The westerly winds will scour out the
remaining low level moisture in the east...thus a dry forecast
on tap for well as Labor Day. A weak back door cold
front will slip into the northeast Sunday night with a couple of
degrees of cooling for Monday...but temperatures will remain above

High pressure to our southwest will build over nm for the first
half of next week...then shift east later in the week. Tuesday
will remain dry and quite warm...this despite another weak backdoor
front into the northeast. By Wednesday we could begin to see some
moisture creeping into the western half of nm. We will have low
chance probability of precipitation in for the western and central mountains. Precipitation
chances and coverage will increase gradually each day from Thursday
into next weekend. This does not look like a big surge of moisture
but rather a modest advance of moisture into the state. Chj


Fire weather...
warm...dry and breezy to windy conditions on Sunday will give way
to cooler conditions and light winds Monday and Tuesday with dry
conditions persisting. A pattern change middle to late week could
support the development of limited wetting rain mostly across
western and central zones Wednesday through the weekend.

Near zonal flow in place across much of the west at this time with
upper level highs centered off Baja California and the extreme southeast
states. Relatively dry air mass is in place with below normal
precipitable water values over New Mexico...however...some middle level
moisture will support a few stray thunderstorms mainly east of the
Central High terrain this afternoon and early evening. Breezy
southwest winds will relax after sunset and overnight relative humidity recoveries
will be fair over the western and central valleys and good elsewhere.

Zonal flow to tighten a bit on Sunday as a short wave approaches
from the west with an upper level jet nosing into Colorado by middle
day. Lee troughing will develop with a closed surface low in extreme
eastern Colorado and temperatures warm a few degrees...especially
east. Breezy to windy west to southwest surface winds will ramp up
steadily by middle day as relative humidity values dip below 15 percent over the
northwest plateau and northeast plains during the afternoon hours.
With moist fuels...low to moderate fire danger and Haines values
generally around 4...critical fire weather conditions are not
expected despite the fact that critical thresholds of relative humidity and wind
will be met across the northeast. Overnight relative humidity recoveries to range
from fair to good.

Temperatures cool a few degrees on Monday and most areas on Tuesday
as winds decrease each day. A weak wind shift will work into the
northeast...with low level moisture increases across the eastern
plains by Tuesday. Dry conditions persist and Haines values could
reach 6 across western and central zones. Ventilate decreases a bit
each day...but values should remain good to excellent most locations.

By Wednesday...models show reasonable agreement that an upper level
trough will develop over the Pacific northwest as the subtropical
high becomes better defined over the south central states. The
trough deepens over the western states through Friday as the upper
high center remains east of New Mexico. This pattern could support a
moisture tap from Mexico into western New Mexico Wednesday through
Friday. Models dont agree on amount of moisture with the European model (ecmwf) more
optimistic regarding wetting rain. Current grids carry a steady
increase in the chances of precipitation with isolated thunderstorms
limited to the highest terrain on Wednesday with gradual increases
western and central zones through Saturday. 05


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations