Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1159 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014
18z taf cycle
initial thunderstorms to initially develop over the western and
north Central High terrain...increasing by 20z to 21z to include
central higher terrain. Once developed...storm motion will be
relatively slow and to the east across north central New Mexico
and to the northwest to northeast across the west. Gusty outflows
will accompany generally moderate rain with new development 23z
to 03z mainly along boundaries. Brief MVFR ceilings with mountain
obscurations with the strongest storms...otherwise VFR conditions
will dominate. Activity to diminish 03z to 06z with spotty
showers lingering mainly over the north. VFR all locations after 09z.
Previous discussion...350 am MDT Sat Jul 26 2014...
showers and storms will be increasing today and moreso Sunday as
moisture continues to infiltrate the ridge aloft. A cold front
pushing into the eastern plains Sunday will also trigger more
widespread showers and storms...some with locally heavy rain. The
front will bring gusty east winds to the Rio Grande Valley as it
tracks westward Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures will
cool down closer to average or even a little below Sunday and for
much of next week. Another front around the middle of next week will
potentially lead to more widespread and locally heavy rainfall for
at least portions of northern and central New Mexico.
not much change needed in the current forecast. Convection has been
slowly waning this overnight over Arizona and Colorado...as the
plume of moisture rotates over those states...clipping The Four
Corners region. Moisture will continue to infiltrate the ridge
aloft...bringing increasing chances for convection to northern and
central New Mexico today and moreso Sunday. A cold front Sunday will
trigger more widespread showers and storms...some with locally heavy
rain especially over the north central and northeast. East winds are
expected to push into the Rio Grande Valley...reaching a peak Sunday
night. Wind guidance Sunday night for kabq has increased quite a
bit...especially the met.
Next week still looks pretty active most days. There does not appear
to be a surface boundary Tuesday...but Wednesday through Saturday
will see daily reinforcements of surface high pressure...and perhaps
a disturbance in northwest flow...across the northeast third to half.
Temperatures starting Sunday and through the week look to cool down
to near average or even a bit below...especially in the east where
the daily fronts will be active. Differences in the extended models
become more apparent longer term...with the GFS keeping the ridge
intact and the European model (ecmwf) attempting to shove it eastward.
sprawling upper level high remains centered over nm as main
monsoonal moisture plume remains over socal...Arizona and the Great
Basin. Could be a little more convection today than yesterday
across the far north and west central areas...but drier middle level
air overall will remain in place. Little to no storm motion...
however... may allow for some wetting rain footprints...as well as
gusty outflow winds. Warm temperatures so far overnight have let to
many areas of poor and fair humidity recoveries so far this morning.
Minimum humidity values should come up slightly due to some middle
level moisture seepage this afternoon...though if the European model (ecmwf) is
correct...humidities will be just as low...if not lower than
A convective complex that originates over Colorado today may send
down a cold front/outflow boundary into NE nm this evening.
Additional storms may develop along the front. If this boundary
doesnt come in...a stronger back door cold front will arrive on
Sunday. High temperatures across the NE and ec will drop 5 to 15 degrees
compared to saturdays readings. A significant increase in low level
moisture will accompany the front...and scattered to numerous storms
are expected across the north and NE...while isolated to scattered activity
develops across the west as the monsoonal plume shifts eastward a
bit. The front...aided by outflow...will push through the gaps of the
Central Mountain chain Sunday afternoon/evening and spill the moisture westward.
Thus...Monday will be even more active areawide...though with
somewhat cooler temperatures. Higher humidities will certainly be on tap
both Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday will remain active...though there doesnt appear to be a
boundary to focus on at this time. However...as time comes...there may be
one that develops from the previous days convection. The moisture
plume does shift a bit more over the state...and there will still be
plenty of low level moisture to work with for another round of
Another back door front will arrive Wednesday and Wednesday night with another
uptick in moisture behind it. The European model (ecmwf) is far more aggressive at
sliding the front through the entire state Wednesday night...but the GFS
is slower and keeps it east of the Central Mountain chain...at least
until Thursday night. There are some difference in the position and
strength of the upper high by middle week as well...which will
determine how far and fast the front moves in. Regardless it will be
a wet week. Signs indicate that the end of the week will be most
active as the monsoonal plume shifts squarely over nm and yet
another strong back door cold front arrives. The abundant cloud
cover and precipitation will result in near to below normal temperatures middle week