Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
547 am MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail...but a gradual lowering of VFR ceilings is
forecast through the taf period with increasing thunderstorm
probabilities. MVFR conditions can be expected with thunderstorms...
although short-lived IFR conditions are possible. Terminals most
likely to be impacted are klvs...ksaf...kaeg and kabq...in that
order. Thunderstorm probabilities will peak between 22-02z...but
may continue well into the overnight hours across central and
western portions of New Mexico.
Previous discussion...358 am MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015...
copious amounts of moisture will combine with a backdoor front to
produce numerous thunderstorms over much of central and northern
New Mexico today and tonight. Very heavy rain is possible from the
stronger storms this afternoon through tonight...leading to a
greater potential for flash flooding. For Thursday and
Friday...plentiful moisture will combine with daytime heating to
result in scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend. Storm motion is
expected to decrease Thursday and Friday and heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms is possible. The active weather pattern will
continue through at least middle week next week.
no major changes in the model runs early this morning. Both NAM
and GFS in very good agreement for today through Friday. Backdoor
front/boundary has pushed west of rgv as of this writing.
Precipitable water values have increased to over an inch over much
of the region. NAM and GFS continue to forecast 99th percentile
precipitable water values for much of central and northern nm
today through tonight. Meanwhile...an upper level wave/vorticity lobe
is forecast to move northward through western nm today. So...most of
the ingredients needed for flash flooding are present in the form
of copious low level moisture...a surface trigger in the form of
the backdoor front/boundary and large scale lift associated with a
warm core wave originating from deep convection near the
bootheel. Models continue to forecast 10-15kts of steering flow
this afternoon but forecast rain rates expected to outweigh
moderate storm motion. Issued Flash Flood Watch for the northern
half or so of the state from noon today through late tonight. Both
models keep convection going well after midnight for much of the
region. Also of note is the 00z nam12 really hitting the east
slopes of the southern sangres and the east slopes of the sandias
and manzanos hard (qpf ~ 2-4") this afternoon and evening.
Despite an elongated upper high moving overhead Thursday and
Friday...the flow at mountain top level remains southerly...keeping
precipitable waters high. Both GFS and NAM progging storm motion to decrease
both days...so slower moving heavy rainers are a good bet. Storm
motion will gradually transition to westerly Friday and Saturday.
The weekend remains active with healthy rounds of afternoon and
evening convection. Southeast plains may be left out Saturday but
a transition to a northerly flow aloft by Sunday should get that area
back into the act. Models in good agreement that The Four Corners
high Will Park over/near Southeast Arizona/northwest nm Tuesday through Thursday next
week. Models keep plenty of low level moisture around for
scattered crops of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
the work week with the only downtick for perhaps the east-
central and southeast plains late in the week.
atmospheric moisture will continue to trend up
through tonight as a heavy rain event unfolds across much of
northern and central New Mexico...thanks in part to a weak backdoor
front and resulting upslope flow. Soaking rains are likely today...
tonight and Thursday due to a high precipitable water and relatively slow storm
motion environment. High temperatures will trend down and humidity
will trend up compared to the past few days as a result of rain
cooling and additional cloud cover. Highs will generally be below
normal through at least Friday with good chances for wetting rain.
The upper high will recenter over New Mexico late Friday and
continue over the area through at least the middle of next week with
no additional moisture input. Look for temperatures to trend up
through the weekend as wetting rain footprint shrinks slightly each
day going into next week.
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for the
following zones... nmz501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.