Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1048 am MST sun Jan 25 2015
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions to continue across north and central New Mexico
through the next 24 hours. No aviation weather hazards expected
through this period.
Previous discussion...306 am MST sun Jan 25 2015...
the warming trend to continue into Monday with plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be above normal areawide by Monday and will stay
there through Wednesday. A Baja California low and associated subtropical
moisture will move mainly west of the area...but expect an
increase in clouds and chances for precipitation late Monday into
Tuesday across western New Mexico. A backdoor cold front will push
in Wednesday night through Thursday as another moisture-rich Baja California
low approaches slowly from the west. These two features will
combine to increase precipitation chances late in the work-week
and into the weekend...favoring southern portions of New Mexico.
warming continues today with increasing pressure heights...light
winds and sunny skies as temperatures trend above normal central
and west...but still a couple degrees below normal across the
eastern plains. The warming trend will plateau late Monday into
Tuesday with temperatures settling above to well above normal area-
The Baja California low and associated subtropical moisture are still
forecast to move north across the Desert Southwest Monday/Tuesday as the
upper ridge axis shifts east across The Rockies and out into the
plains. Precipitable waters at kabq are still forecast to increase to between
2 and 3 Standard deviations above normal for January. Strong
moisture advection and forcing will favor Arizona and western New
Mexico Monday night-Tuesday with the best chances for our area along the
Arizona/nm border. This is a warm system with very high snow levels for
late January...so expect mostly rain.
Other than breezy to locally windy conditions along/east of the
Central Mountain chain...will get a break Wednesday with short-
wave ridging over the Great Basin and southern rockies. A cold
front will follow on Wednesday night into Thursday as another Baja California
low approaches slowly from the west. Precipitable waters will increase back to
well above normal as subtropical moisture streams into the region
with southwest flow aloft late Thursday into Friday. However...
subtle differences among the medium range model solutions make
nailing-down the details difficult at that projection. Good
agreement among the 00z model solutions for Friday with precipitation
favoring southern portions of the state...but then models depart
somewhat with the quantitative precipitation forecast as the GFS maintains easterly upslope flow
into Saturday. Both the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) have the upper low
center over/near the Baja California peninsula late next Saturday as the
feature becomes completely cut-off from the parent flow.
So...significant wetting potential late week into the weekend
but with significant forecast uncertainty at this time.
no critical fire weather conditions expected.
The upper level pattern will continue to be dominated by a light
wind field as a belt of stronger northwesterlies stays displaced
from New Mexico and a subtropical low pressure system spins over the
Baja California region. This will keep light breezes and poor ventilation over
the state today as temperatures continue to warm up and eat away at
snow pack. Melting snow will again wreak havoc on dewpoints and
relative humidity...with large diurnal swings throughout the day. Many eastern
lowland zones could see bare ground again by day's end as readings
reach normalcy in the lower 50s there. Tonight's relative humidity recovery will be
good to excellent in most areas.
By Monday...as the Baja California low pressure system retrogrades a bit
farther west...some negatively tilted energy will translate
northward over the Gulf of California and toward AZ/nm. This will
advect moisture and some showers into the western zones late
Monday...and more-so into Monday night. A stray light shower may
even make it into the Rio Grande Valley...but the bulk of the action
should stay confined to the west. Despite increasing high
clouds...the western zones should continue to warm a few more
degrees Monday while the eastern zones soar several degrees with
most of the snow having been melted by that time. Poor ventilation
will plague the entire forecast area Monday.
On Tuesday...the remnants of the Baja California low will have been displaced
northward into Nevada with any showers over western nm beginning to
quickly disperse. This will steer a slightly stronger westerly middle
level flow over the Central Mountain chain...leading to some breezy
conditions along and to the Lee of the barrier. These breezes will
assist with ventilation rates in localized areas for a brief time.
Temperatures will rise a few more degrees in the east Central Plains
Tuesday...meaning all zones will be above average by 5 to 10
By Wednesday the breezy conditions look to hold along and just east
of The Spine of the New Mexico Central Mountain chain. Above normal
temperatures will persist with dry conditions as a flatter westerly
By early Thursday a cold front will back into nm and spill westward
beyond the Rio Grande toward the Arizona border. While temperatures do
not appear bitterly cold...they will be dropping back below normal.
An interesting pattern could then set up from there with another
Baja California low that could spread long duration influences into nm with
higher probabilities for widespread wetting precipitation along with
cloudy and cooler conditions.