Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1040 am MST sun Nov 23 2014
18z taf cycle
upper level short-wave trough axis currently moving through northern
and central nm. Associated northwest winds will be strong with
gusts of 30 to 40 knots common. Some gusts of 45 to 55 knots possible
over the Central Mountain chain peaks and adjacent east slopes and
Highlands. Areas of Montana obscurations in -sn/snow will continue
through middle afternoon along the west slopes of the northern and
western mountains and along the east slopes of the sangre Delaware
cristo mountains where a backdoor surge will create upslope
conditions from the Colorado line southward to klvs. As the upper trough
slides southeastward late this afternoon...strong winds will gradually
subside after 00z Monday.
Previous discussion...912 am MST sun Nov 23 2014...
updated 1st period forecast to better reflect latest trends in
observed data and radar trends...with a leaning toward 12z nam12
quantitative precipitation forecast. The result is an increase in probability of precipitation/qpf/snowamt from the
northern mountains east to the Texas border and a 3-5 degree
decrease in our high temperature forecast. Snow amounts in the
sangre Delaware cristos now 2-3 inches...with localized 4 inch amounts
possible. Still below advisory criteria for the mountains...so
will hold off for now. Otherwise...wind event a tad delayed... but
getting cranked-up now.
New suite of products out shortly.
Previous discussion...317 am MST sun Nov 23 2014...
active weather in store for today and tomorrow...followed by much
quieter conditions. Colder temperatures will arrive today behind a
cold front. It will feel even colder as strong to damaging winds
develop nearly areawide. The strongest winds will be along and
just east of the Central Mountain chain where gusts in excess of
60 miles per hour will be possible. Light snow accumulations are also
expected across the northern mountains. The strong winds may
create areas of blowing snow in the mountains...and areas of
blowing dust across the northeast plains. Breezy to windy
conditions will remain on tap for Monday with below normal
temperatures. Quiet conditions will arrive Tuesday and continue
through the work week as temperatures trend upward.
winds are finally starting to pick up across the County Warning Area early this
morning. These winds should continue to increase through middle day. The
cold front...both traditional and back door segments...will plunge
into the state this morning. High temperatures will be tricky as they are
likely occurring now for much of the area...and will only go down as
day wears on. Thus...forecast daytime highs are lower in some places
than current temperatures. Day shift will need to monitor the progression
of the front...and update temperatures if needed.
In addition to the colder temperatures...very strong winds remain on
tap...with the strongest winds along and just east of the Central
Mountain chain. Some mountain wave activity remains possible this
morning. Additionally...it looks like winds behind the back door
segment of the cold front will be stronger than previously
advertised. Thus will issue a Wind Advisory for the NE as
well...though the strongest winds associated with the back door
front will likely be in Union County. Could briefly see advisory
criteria from the westerly winds before the front arrives as well.
As was the case with the last few strong back door fronts...the
strong winds have picked up quite a bit of dust in southeast Colorado...
which blows into NE nm. Though there will be some showers in the
area...believe there is still a chance of bldu in this region
today...in addition to blsn. Otherwise...have also moved up the
start time of the Wind Advisory for the southeast...as winds have already
approached criteria in these areas.
Still looking for generally 1 to 3 inches of snow for the northern
mountains with this system as well...with the highest amounts in the
sangres. Visibilities may be reduced with blowing snow. As
previously alluded to...the northeast may also see some showers with
the front. As the front pushes south...additional rain and snow
showers may develop along and behind it. Have adjusted probability of precipitation upward
accordingly. Showers may help drag the stronger momentum aloft
to the surface...increasing the potential for erratic gusts.
After this initial shortwave slides by tonight...another shortwave
will cross nm on Monday reinforcing the colder air. Some light snow
amounts remain possible for the northern mountains. Otherwise...
continued breezy to windy conditions will make it feel even colder
than the already below normal temperatures.
Dry northwest flow on tap for Tuesday...and perhaps another weak
perturbation in northwest flow on Wednesday...though it will remain dry.
Weak ridging or zonal flow will be on tap for the end of the week
with temperatures rising back above normal.
..strong winds today...
Upper level disturbance to cross nm today along with a potent cold
front. Strong to high winds will be the main story today from this
system. Gusts to 60 miles per hour are possible mainly on the Central Mountain
high peaks. Rain and higher elevation snow showers will impact areas
mainly north of I 40. Snow accumulations should be light and focused
to the northern mountains into the far northeast higher terrain.
Much cooler air will pour into the state as well today behind the
cold front. Min relative humidity values will correspondingly be higher today with
20s and 30s...except 40s to 50s in the northern mountains. The vent
rates will be mostly excellent...good to very good confined to the
northeast and far southwest.
Colder air will continue to invade nm tonight as winds diminish.
Some gusty winds will remain over the mountains. Relative humidity recovery will
be fair to good for most areas.
A second short wave trough will zip across nm from the north Monday.
More chilly air will accompany this system with snow showers over
the northern mountains...upper Rio Grande Valley and far northeast
Highlands. Breezy to windy conditions are expected over western and
central locations to the east Central Plains...though not as strong
as today. Vent rates will lower some but be mostly in the good to
excellent range. The exceptionally dry air will actually produce
mean lower min relative humidity values for Monday despite the chilly temperatures.
Critical fire weather conditions will actually be approached for a
couple of hours over the upper Gila region in southwest Catron
County. But with poor Haines values and near to below temperatures
certainly not a big concern.
The remainder of the week as well as next weekend should be dry.
A ridge of high pressure will try and build in from the west. The
flow aloft will relax and surface winds lower. High temperatures
will sneak up a little on Tuesday but remain below normal. Then
much milder highs are forecast for the rest of the week and the
Holiday weekend...near normal highs on Wednesday then above normal
thereafter. Thanksgiving is shaping up to be a fine day with plenty
of sunshine...mostly light winds and highs 5 to 15 degrees above
normal late November temperatures. Min relative humidity values will hover in the
15 to 30 percent range across mainly lower elevations...with 30s and
40s in most mountains. Vent rates will be the only concern for much
of the coming week. Fair to poor rates will begin in the west on
Tuesday and spread over most areas Wednesday and Thursday. Some
improvement is expected for Friday and next weekend as the ridge
axis weakens and a zonal flow develops.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the following
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following