Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1151 PM MDT Monday Mar 10 2014
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions all areas through 00z Wednesday...but thereafter some
patchy MVFR ceilings may develop north of roughly a lvs to tcc line.
Increasing potential for spotty mountain wave activity tonight to
Lee of sangre Delaware cristos southward perhaps as far as the manzanos.
Lvs may have some impact from this activity after roughly 08z
tonight. Surface winds to increase significantly areawide during the
morning hours Tuesday and continuing much of the day. Back door cold
front to surge into far NE nm between 19z and 22z and reach from
just west of rtn to just north of CVS by 00z Wednesday with very strong
north to NE winds immediately after frontal passage. Gusts could reach
as high as 45 to 55 kts. Areas of blowing dust and reduced visibility
also possible after frontal passage. Strong winds also possible
below gaps in central Montana chain into Rio Grande Valley after about
Previous discussion...324 PM MDT Monday Mar 10 2014...
big changes coming late Tuesday into Wednesday behind a cold front...
with strong winds and well below normal temperatures...especially
across the eastern plains. A storm system will approach from over
Arizona late Thursday...move overhead Thursday night and depart
New Mexico on Friday. This system will bring scattered
showers...with lower elevation rain and mountain/Highland snow.
Some significant snowfall accumulations are possible across the
northern and western mountains with this system. Dry conditions
with a warming trend to follow behind the system beginning Friday
and will continue through the weekend.
a beautiful afternoon across the northern two-thirds of New Mexico
with a few cirrus clouds...localized breezy conditions and
temperatures warming to above normal. Enjoy it while you can...
because it is all about to change with the passage of a cold front
late Tuesday and the potential for some precipitation late
Thursday into Friday when an upper level low pushes east across
A ridge axis in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is
pushing southeast across the state behind the upper low departing
northern Mexico and moving into south Texas. Ridging will be
replaced with stronger westerlies overnight...with the potential
for some mountain wave activity after midnight on the Lee side of
the Central Mountain chain...especially along the east slopes of
the sangres. That said...the wave signature isn't that strong and
700mb winds are forecast to be less than previous events. Will
hold-off on Wind Advisory issuance for tonight...but suspect that
some locations up north may briefly see advisory level winds late
Tuesday's highs will trend down most areas compared to today...but
still be above normal east of the Central Mountain chain. Above
normal temperatures...very low relative humidities and windy
conditions across the east Central Highlands and plains add up to
the threat of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon (see
discussion below for details). The bigger story will be winds
behind the cold front late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning. The timing of the cold front around/after maximum heating
Tuesday afternoon will increase the gust potential as the surface
pressure gradient tightens in the immediate vicinity of the
frontal boundary due to a large temperature differential. The
strongest gusts...likely to between 55-65 miles per hour will be immediately
behind the front within 3 hours after frontal passage late Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday evening across the far eastern plains...and will
likely be accompanied by blowing dust. Will continue the high
wind watch for those areas and will likely be upgraded. Elsewhere
east of the Central Mountain chain...wind advisories will likely
be required. East Canyon/gap winds are expected Tuesday night as
well...with the strongest winds from kabq south...including the
upper Tularosa Valley. The front will continue southwest across
the entire forecast area early Wednesday morning as the upper low
drops south to near the Nevada/AZ/CA triple point and cuts-off
completely from the parent flow. The big story Wednesday will be
temperatures...which are forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal
central and west and an average 15 degrees below normal east.
Precipitable waters will be on the uptrend late Wednesday into Thursday in
advance of the upper low. Both the 12z NAM and GFS show precipitable waters
approaching 0.40 inch at kabq by late Thursday...which is above
the 80th percentile of normal and more than sufficient for wetting
precipitation. The 12z and 18z nam12 solutions are fairly bullish
with the upper low remaining closed all the way into Thursday
evening over south central Arizona. In general...the models are
trending toward a wetter scenario for late Thursday into early
Friday. Our probability of precipitation have trended up for that period...with a nod to
the slower CMC/European model (ecmwf) solutions for Friday. Also added a mention of
thunder for late Thursday afternoon and overnight. The system will
exit Friday and be replaced by dry northwest flow with a building
West Coast ridge. The 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a dry weekend on
tap...with a dry frontal passage possible Saturday night...so removed probability of precipitation.
have decided not to upgrade the watch to a warning after looking at
some stability parameters. Temperatures will be above normal but not
well above normal...Haines indices lower throughout the day and high
cloud cover will be mixed and could affect low level stability.
Still looking at several hours of low humidity and breezy conditions
between Albuquerque to Clovis. Will let midnight shift decided based
on the most current data.
Dry air mass continues over the state with overnight lows trending
above normal ranging from the upper 20s in the west to low forties
across the east. Relative humidity recoveries will be fair all areas.
The strong back door cold front set to move in through the day
Tuesday has slowed slightly from previous model runs. Min relative humidity values
will be in the teens across most areas. Daytime high temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees below todays reading but will remain above
seasonal normal. As the cold front begins to barrel southward
across the eastern border winds will increase into the evening with
gust up to 50 miles per hour possible. Vent rates will be good during this
time. Dewpoints and humidity values will go up behind this front.
Haines values will start off at values of 5 in the morning before
decreasing to 2 by days end.
Far northern and northeast locations have a chance for a rain snow
mix Tuesday evening through Wednesday as an upper level disturbance
passes to our north. Into Wednesday morning Central Valley locations
will experience gap winds during the early morning hours. Overnight
relative humidity recoveries will be good. Winds will decrease by middle morning. Vent
rates will be good in western areas while central and east will be
poor. Temperatures will be cooler than normal on Wednesday...up to
25 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Humidity values will trend up but
will still be low only expected in the teens and low 20s.
The models are in general agreement on the next system set for later
this week. All produce a closed low in the vicinity of Las Vegas Nevada
Thursday...then open it up and bring a trough through nm Friday.
Some shower activity is possible from Thursday afternoon through
Friday but nothing real significant. There is a chance for some
isolated lightning as well. Temperatures will rebound on Thursday
trending 4 to 16 degrees above wednesdays. Winds will generally be
light with good to excellent vent rates expected except across the
northern mountains where it will be poor. Another back door cold
front and disturbance possible for the weekend. Dosen't look to
be all that wet at this time.
Fire Weather Watch from 11 am MDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon
for the following zones...nmz107-108.
High wind watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
for the following zones...nmz530-531-534>536.