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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
602 am MDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

12z taf cycle
an unseasonably strong back door cold front will dive
southwestward across the plains today...then through gaps in the
central Montana chain with a gusty East Canyon wind tonight. An aviation
weather warning could be needed at kabq for east wind gusts to 35 knots.
The front and associated upslope flow should favor the east slopes
of the central Montana chain and especially the sangre Delaware cristos for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rain/rain showers today and tonight. A secondary focus for
storms should be along the east slopes of the western mountains this
evening. Wet microbursts will be likely with erratic wind gusts to
45 knots possible. Vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs indicates most likely period of
convection...but this can change. Also...models indicate klvs may
see multiple rounds of storms tracking southeastward off the
sangres. Tonight...widespread low clouds should engulf the plains
with MVFR and IFR conditions into Thursday morning.



Previous discussion...406 am MDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014...
an active monsoon pattern will continue through the end of the
week. Another backdoor cold front will bring a period of
enhanced thunderstorm activity to mainly north-central and
northeast New Mexico today...then shifting to central and western
areas Thursday and Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will be especially heightened from the Continental
Divide to the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain on
Thursday. This as very moist air is carried westward by east to
west winds that will turn locally windy along the Rio Grande
Valley and upper Tularosa Basin. A deep monsoon moisture plume
will remain over the area Friday into the weekend. High
temperatures will generally be at or below normal through the
forecast period.


tail-end of exiting shortwave trough providing favorable
environment for early morning convection over mainly NC/NE New
Mexico albeit far more isolated than past few nights...which is a
little surprising given the proximity of the boundary poised just
to our north. Focus today/tonight will be this next backdoor cold
front that will push south into NC/NE New Mexico this morning...
slowly pressing south and somewhat west through the day before
making a stronger diurnal surge westward this evening.

Recall the last backdoor front this past Sunday that kicked off
our current monsoon burst pattern arrived much faster than
advertised and resulted in a big increase in convection from Taos
to Santa Fe to the abq metropolitan. The one important difference with
this front is that the air mass ahead of the incoming boundary
/E.G. Rio Grande Valley/ has been worked over and temperatures are much
cooler and thus not contributing to as a significant NE-southeast thermal
gradient. That said...the incoming air mass is pretty cool for
this time of year and this front is definitely stronger than last
week. So big changes ahead in the short term. Will repost Flash
Flood Watch for NC/NE areas today/evening but thinking the focus
for heavy rains will remain tucked closer to the east slopes vs.
The far NE plains especially later today and tonight. Easterly gap
winds will begin to break westward late this afternoon or early
evening...and going into Thursday...a more stable air mass will
limit thunderstorm across the far east. Thus...the focus for heavy
thunderstorm rains will set up from the Continental Divide to the
east slopes of te Central Mountain chain. Low level convergence
will be especially enhanced over the wc/SW mountains and these
areas could really experience a big day Thursday PM to include the
Whitewater-Baldy burn scar. Also heightened threat for the SC
Highlands/mountains as well as the east flanks of the jemez and
higher terrain near Chama.

Little time to look at extended periods in depth on this shift...but
active monsoon pattern to continue. Plume of deep moisture looks
to remain over the area Friday beneath weakening steering winds
aloft. Overall just a favorable forecast for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall each day. High temperatures
will generally be at or below normal through the forecast period.


Fire weather...
humidities should decrease today most locations due to drier air
filtering in from the northwest. An exception will be across the NE
due to a gusty and moist back door cold front that will punch in
from the NE during the morning. As a result of the decrease in
humidities...wetting footprints of storms should be smaller
today...especially across the west. The best chance for wetting rains and
potentially some locally heavy precipitation will be across the
sangre Delaware cristos in the afternoon and evening as the front tries to
push westward over the mountains. Models are showing a decrease in
precipitation behind the front...probably due to stabler Post
frontal air. Since the front will cross NE areas during a more
stable part of the day...the threat for heavy rain their looks to be
decreasing. This front should push through gaps in the Central
Mountain chain with a gusty East Canyon wind toward sunset and
through tonight. Ahead of the front...which will be most of the
forecast area...expected high temperatures a few to 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday.

In the wake of the front...high temperatures should fall a few to 10
degrees most locations on Thursday. Higher Post frontal humidities
will feed an upper trough that will cross slowly from the northwest
Thursday through Friday night. The dynamics with this feature...and
its long dwell time...should result in fairly widespread wetting
precipitation favoring the Continental Divide region to the east slopes
of the Central Mountain chain Thursday/Thursday night...and favoring
locations east of the Continental Divide to the Texas border Friday/Friday
night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a risk of burn
scar flash flooding.

Another moist back door cold front should drop into the NE with the
exiting upper trough Friday night. This front will then push through
the Central Mountain chain on Saturday favoring the Central Mountain
chain and possibly the east slopes of the western mountains for
another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Drier air aloft in the wake of the upper trough should keep rain
from becoming too heavy in general...with some localized exceptions.

A train of easterly waves is currently prognosticated to track
northwestward across SW nm and central Arizona Sunday into the coming
work week steering a robust monsoon moisture plume over central and
western areas with good coverage of wetting storms probable each

With the exception of some near normal high temperatures across
central and western areas today...look for readings to be below to
well below normal for the next 7 days due to the fronts and periods
of precipitation.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...



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