Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
543 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
A few showers are currently ongoing over northeastern New
Mexico...and most of these will fade away after sunset. A stray
thunderstorm may also develop before then...but for the most part
this activity will remain poorly organized...producing little
rainfall and some localized gusty winds to 40 knots. Elsewhere gusts
to 25 to 30 knots will generally diminish at sunset...restrengthening
again Wednesday afternoon with even less showers/storms.
52
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Previous discussion...321 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013...
potent shortwave trough that was over NE nm this morning has ejected
eastward this afternoon. Though subsidence is playing a role in the
lack of storm development across the northeast...a few storms have
finally shown signs of developing along the east slopes of the
sangre Delaware cristo mountains. These storms should continue into the
evening...but are expected to diminish by midnight.
Temperatures will increase between 5 and 15 degrees across the board on
Wednesday as shortwave ridging moves over the state. Some breezes
will be noted across the west...but otherwise a pretty quiet day in
store. Frontal boundary will be hovering near far NE nm...which
could spark a storm...but not overly confident in that scenario.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will slide further into NE nm on
Thursday. However...the GFS brings the boundary much further into the
NE than the NAM or Euro does. Dewpoints will rise into the upper
40s/low 50s behind the front. Meanwhile...return flow will bring
Gulf moisture back toward east central and southeast portions of the
County Warning Area as well. Thus...storms are possible across much of NE nm and
along down the nm/Texas border Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of
these storms may be strong or severe.
The moisture/dryline will continue to push westward Thursday night.
Again...the GFS is more bullish bring the higher dewpoints back into
the Rio Grande Valley...though the NAM/Euro keep it along/east of
the Central Mountain chain. If any moisture makes it to the Rio Grande
Valley...it will be very shallow...and will easily mix back out
Friday afternoon. Both the GFS and the Euro suggest a dryline will
set up just east of the Central Mountain chain and will be a focus
for thunderstorm development. It appears that there will be ample
instability for severe storms east of the dryline. A similar
situation is in store for Saturday...though the dryline may set up a
bit further east than on Friday.
Less confidence exists for storm potential along the dryline Sunday
and beyond. As westerly winds aloft start to increase as the dry
slot moves in...models are indicating the dryline will mix eastward to
the nm/Texas border each afternoon...which would limit the potential
for storms in the abq County Warning Area. However...that will also mean dry and
breezy/windy conditions will return.
34
Fire weather...
still looking at a critical fire weather scenario for the upcoming
several days. Wind highlights mainly concentrated near the
Arizona/Colorado borders favoring zones 105 and 101 Wed/Thu/Fri.
Also looking at some stronger winds at times extending from Socorro
County up to Las Vegas and a little beyond to the north. Based on
the abundant instability and very dry air that will be in
place...decided to issue a watch for zones 105/101 and 103 Thursday.
A shorter duration rfw event as it concerns wind but some of those
zones could very well see super Haines so a critical day. The
weekend looks to be breezy to windy and could see some red flag
conditions. Models still slightly different with their depiction of
the middle level flow so will continue to watch that. The dryline and
abundant moisture found across the east will create some interesting
forecasting there and perhaps even the east slopes of the
Front Range. Stay tuned on that.
As far as rest of today...lighter winds have prevailed as compared
to the past few days. Dewpoints have been a little slower to dry
out but was the atmosphere mixes more rest of today combined with
some occasional breezes...dewpoints will fall in many areas.
Thus...reducing humidity values down to critical levels many
areas. The middle level dry intrusion is expected to strengthen over
the area tonight and leading to some poor recoveries west and
south. Better recoveries will be observed across the north and far
east.
The upper ridge will gradually slide eastward Wednesday and Thursday
as a vigorous West Coast trough nudges slightly inland. Winds will
pick up as a result of the increasing flow aloft. As mentioned
above...a middle level dry intrusion will strengthen and overspread the
entire area. Mixing each afternoon will bring dewpoints much lower
across western and central areas. Went below model guidance there by
a few degrees. Eastern areas are a bit more problematic due to the
dry line. Thinking lots of single digits for several hours Wednesday
afternoon across pretty much the entire area. Perhaps an easterly
influence across the northeast so slightly higher there. Dryline
should be more pronounced across the east Wednesday night into
Thursday so beefed up dewpoints slightly to reflect that. Thus
humidity values Thursday afternoon should be a bit higher across the
eastern third or so. Single digits westward and long duration
following poor recoveries. Some dryline storms could produce a mix
of wet/dry across the east including perhaps the east slopes of the
sangres. Better chance of wetter and more areal coverage on Thursday
versus Wednesday.
Mixing heights are off the charts both Wednesday and Thursday and this will be
combined with above normal temperatures most areas between 5 to 10 degrees.
Haines values a solid 6 pretty much both days. Seeing a fair bit of
super Haines showing up in the gridded forecast for
Thursday...especially later afternoon across the western half of the
area. Looks like Thursday should see the most wind as compared to
Wednesday. Not a rip snorting wind but a turbulent mixing wind that
has wide gust spreads and is helter skelter.
Decided to bring moisture...albeit shallow further west than current
models indicate Thursday night. Think that the stronger convection
or storms over the eastern plains Thursday afternoon will push
moisture westward further than models think. Poor recoveries will
continue though pretty much western half Thursday night.
Friday looks to be a dynamic day. Breezy to locally windy conditions
will prevail and create some localized red flag conditions across
the western third. Super Haines is showing up across western and
central areas with even perhaps a significant dry lightning
signature across central and eastern areas. This would be due to a
mix of wet and dry storms as the surface dryline tries to stay over
eastern New Mexico. Wetter storms across the eastern third of the
plains and very dry air west.
Models are showing a dynamic mix out period on Saturday as a more
southwesterly flow pushes the dryline eastward back into Texas. The
middle level dry intrusion would take over more of the area with very
low humidities and abundant instability. Breezes would continue
perhaps setting up some localized red flag conditions. Mixing
heights are depicted to lower some but suspect they will come in
higher than what the models indicate as we get closer to that
period. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS diverge some on the strength of the trough
and upper winds aloft during the weekend period...especially Sunday
so hard to say right now how long the stronger wind flows would
continue but suspect Sunday would be breezy too and that could last
into the early portion of next week.
50
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones...nmz101-103-105.
&&
$$
