Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
428 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Westerly winds
may gust near 30kt between kcqc and ksxu this afternoon.
Previous discussion...300 am MST Sat Feb 6 2016...
Dry weather expected through next Friday under a building ridge of
high pressure aloft. With the exception of a weak cold front which
will retard warming in the northeast and east central Sunday into
Monday...temperatures will climb day by day to above average values
by next Tuesday...and remain warmer than normal for the rest of the
work week. Unsettled weather could return next weekend.
One more disturbance in northwest flow aloft tracking to our northeast is
scheduled to bring another cold front Sunday/Sunday night...but only
limited affects to temperatures mainly across the northeast/east
central. Otherwise the upper ridge shifts progressively eastward
over New Mexico...leading to dry weather with a warming trend.
Temperatures overall will reach above average values by
Tuesday...and will remain warmer than normal through Friday. Breezy
to windy conditions possible east central this afternoon and
evening...and Wednesday afternoon. Some cirrus could
possibly...eventually work it/S way into the ridge and over parts of
the state...but that/S about it.
While extended forecast models have been varying from run to run and
with each other...the message is the weather may take an unsettled
turn sometime next weekend.
Main story for the upcoming week will be warming temperatures...dry
conditions and generally poor ventilation. Near to just below normal
temperatures today should be above normal everywhere by Tuesday...and
perhaps significantly so by Wednesday across the east.
Ribbon of stronger middle level winds...stretching generally from the
jemez mts southeastward over the east Central Plains will result in
windy conditions in the vicinity of the Central Highlands today.
Humidities should remain above 15 percent...but cant rule out an
hour of critical conditions in western Guadalupe County where Haines
values of 5 exist. Otherwise...look for temperatures to generally
increase up to 12 degrees warmer than yesterday.
A storm system that is well north of nm will slide into the Great
Plains Sunday...and an associated cold front will slide into eastern
nm. Temperatures may drop a few degrees from todays highs across the
east...but other areas should continue the warming trend.
High amplitude upper ridge over the West Coast will then be the main
weather player for the work week. Though the ridge Delaware-amplifies some
as the work week progresses...it will also shift eastward somewhat
resulting in poor mixing and light winds. One exception to this rule
will be Wednesday afternoon across the east Central Plains. Westerly
surface winds will increase as a Lee side trough deepens. Vent rates
across the plains will be in the fair to good category. Should be
quite dry under the ridge...and though there is not much
mixing...should see some reflection of this at the surface...except
where snow melt and evaporation is occurring.