Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
620 PM MDT sun Sep 14 2014
00z taf cycle
MVFR ceilings will continue across the southeast plains generally
south of a line from Corona to Portales...including taf site krow.
There may be pockets of VFR ceilings at times this area between
roughly 01z and 08z tonight. After 08z through about 16z some
localized IFR ceilings possible this area embedded in the overall MVFR
ceilings and some low...perhaps MVFR...ceilings may again make it to the
Interstate 40 corridor between Edgewood and ktcc during this
period. Low stratus nearing MVFR category still looks to be a
possibility across the low Rio Grande Valley between roughly 09z
and 16z and may even reach middle Rio Grande Valley for a short
time within this time period...meaning a fairly low chance that
kabq/kaeg may be impacted...but confidence too low to include in
those tafs. Elsewhere...VFR conditions expected to persist through
the taf period with a couple of exceptions. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms likely to linger through 04z or
05z...and to redevelop after 19z Monday...across west central nm...
northern Gila region and from the vicinity of central Montana chain east
to the eastern plains. Kgup and klvs main taf sites likely
impacted and may also include ksaf...ktcc...krow and kabq later
Monday. Short lived MVFR conditions and Montana obscurations may also
accompany this activity.
Previous discussion...320 PM MDT sun Sep 14 2014...
an active weather pattern lies ahead for central and northern New
Mexico through the week and into next weekend. Daily rounds of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon.
A backdoor cold front will drop into northeast and east central
New Mexico Monday...helping to get storms going along the central
mountains. Despite the fact that The Four Corners high will be
strengthening during the week...plentiful low level moisture will
combine with above average temperatures and result in scattered
storms over the mountains...especially southwest. Activity is
expected to increase further toward the end of the week as
moisture associated with Hurricane Odile moves up from the
upper level ridge over the intermountain west continuing to
amplify today. Southerly flow near mountain top level down to the
surface...however...continues to bring moisture into central New
Mexico this afternoon. Backdoor cold front drops into NE nm
Monday...then through the east Central Plains and up to the east
slopes of the central mountains by late afternoon. Increasing
Ely upslope flow will likely favor the Central Highlands and east
slopes of the Central Mountain chain. Most storm activity will
shift westward during the evening as the east winds push through the
canyons of the Central Mountain chain. Moderate east winds
expected though Tijeras Canyon Monday evening.
Upper high continues to strengthen over The Four Corners Tuesday and
Wednesday. Plenty of low level moisture remains however for rounds
of afternoon and early evening showers and storms....especially
south of Interstate 40.
Models remain in good agreement that the upper high will be forced
eastward Wednesday night and Thursday. Still uncertainty with regard to
how the remnant moisture from Odile moves up but the 12z model
suite trend is much more favorable for either bringing up deep
moisture directly from Odile and/or sub-tropical moisture from
central Mexico in the southerly flow between the hurricane
circulation and the upper high to the east. Increased precipitation
chances Thursday night through Friday night as a result of the
increasing model agreement that this period will be rather wet.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) in fairly good agreement that the closed upper low
responsible for bringing up Odile and or deep subtropical moisture
into nm drops southeastward into Southern California Friday night and
Saturday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) in good agreement that a southerly flow
aloft over nm will continue through next weekend.
no hazardous fire weather impacts are expected through the forecast
Above normal atmospheric moisture will characterize the forecast
through the next seven days thanks to a recharge from a backdoor
front Monday and then moisture from Hurricane Odile late in the
week. Wetting showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day with
an increase from west to east toward the end of the week as the
remnants of Odile get caught up in the westerlies ahead of a
California trough. The California trough is forecast to become a
cut-off low and drift east into the Great Basin through next
weekend...helping to keep moisture streaming north into New Mexico.
The warming trend that kicked-off yesterday will continue into middle
week...with above normal highs showing up across much of northern
New Mexico around the middle of the week thanks to a building upper
high over the state. Low temperatures will be above normal tonight
and will persist above normal through next weekend. Humidity
recovery has been good to excellent the past two nights and the
looks to continue through next weekend.