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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
501 am MDT Sat Oct 10 2015

12z taf cycle
upper ridge building over central rockies with upper low vicinity
Baja California California circulating high level moisture into nm. Surface Lee trough
strengthening through 11/00z. Higher terrain obscured in areas MVFR/IFR
ceilings/visibilities in br mainly central Montana chain over the eastern plains until
around 16z. Otherwise VFR.


Previous discussion...320 am MDT Sat Oct 10 2015...
low clouds and fog are once again plaguing much of eastern New
Mexico this morning. This should dissipate into the late morning
hours...and high pressure will build over New Mexico today with
very minimal chances for a stray shower or thunderstorm in the
southwestern and south central mountains. Temperatures will soar
above average in the northern half of New Mexico today with
readings running close to average for middle October farther south.
Into Sunday...breezy to windy conditions will develop over the
Central Highlands...and adjacent High Plains while temperatures
continue to climb. In fact...much of eastern New Mexico will
observe near record high temperatures. A cold front will then
arrive into eastern New Mexico Sunday night and Monday...knocking
temperatures back to near average. Dry weather will then persist
with warming temperatures through the first half of next week.


upper level features of note include the cut-off low over the open
Pacific waters...just west of the Baja California peninsula and a building
ridge of high pressure over nm and the American southwest. High
cirrus clouds have eroded away in the northern tier of the
state...but increased bands of cirrus are currently migrating into
the southern tier of nm where some upper level diffluence and
deformation exists. Sufficient boundary layer moisture has led to
additional batches of low stratus clouds and patchy fog over much
of eastern nm this morning. This will steadily erode away through
the late morning with surface winds expected to turn southwesterly
due to a Lee side surface trough taking shape.

Atmospheric moisture profiles are expected to dry out toward
afternoon from the boundary layer through the middle and upper levels
of the troposphere. This drying coupled with meager instability
will limit convective potential today. Look for a few cumulus
build-ups over the high terrain...but any stray shower or storm
should be confined to the high terrain in the southern tier of the
forecast area. With the ridge overhead and pressure heights rising
substantially...look for warming temperatures in all
zones...especially the eastern plains where compressional heating
from the downsloping surface flow will take effect.

Some batches of thin cirrus could wrap into western zones of nm
tonight and Sunday morning...but less boundary layer humidity
recovery is expected. low clouds or areas of fog are
expected Sunday morning. The Lee side surface trough will deepen
Sunday while a strengthening belt of middle level northwesterly flow
is drawn into nm. This will yield breezy to windy conditions over
a swath stretching from the San Juan basin...through the northern
mountains...over the Central Highlands and into the east Central
Plains. Outside of some recent frontal intrusions...these will be
some of the higher...longer duration...synoptic winds the area
has seen in a few months. Temperatures will continue to soar with
many sites in the eastern plains observing near record highs in
the continued downsloping regime.

This near record warmth will be put into check Sunday night and
Monday as a front surges in. This surface boundary still appears
to be devoid of any beneficial moisture...but it will quickly
knock the temperatures back to climatological norms for the
plains. Some easterly gusts could accelerate through the gaps and
canyons of the Central Mountain chain...but this should be fairly
short-lived Monday.

Into Tuesday...Wednesday...and Thursday the ridge aloft re-
establishes itself with a light wind regime and warmer than
average temperatures. Late in the week attention will then turn
west where the current cut-off low is advertised to work back
inland over the western states as a weaker open wave trough. The
GFS solution has steered much closer to the European model over
the past couple of model runs. This would usher in some
precipitation to the western and central zones of nm by Friday and



Fire weather...
drying and warming trend as high pressure builds over New Mexico for
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms possible zone 109
today otherwise dry through next Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds
expected along the east slopes of the central Montana chain and east
Central Plains Sunday. A cold front Sunday night/Monday will sweep
over the region...bringing a short lived cool down to the east and
central Monday...along with a weak to moderate east wind into
portions of the rgv. Despite the front...highs on Monday will still
remain near to above average.

Highs will warm to above average today and more so Sunday...with
some near record to record highs possible Sunday over the northeast
Highlands and eastern plains. After Monday/S cooldown...highs
Tuesday through Thursday will vary from 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Humidities will trend downward in general...but overnight
recoveries should remain good to excellent and forecast afternoon
min humidities Don/T fall below 15 percent. Some concern models may
be underdoing the amount of drying on Sunday where gusty northwest
winds prevail. In that case...some spotty critical conditions could
develop...mainly for portions of zones 104...107 and 108.

Widespread poor vent rates forecast today across the west and
portions of the north central. Significant improvement in rates
forecast for Sunday overall. Monday and Tuesday will see areas of
poor ventilation return to the west and north.

The forecast beyond next Wednesday/Thursday remains relatively low
confidence. The GFS has flip flopped towards the European model (ecmwf)
solution...which remains consistent with it/S previous runs. The GFS
is absent the surface front which the European model (ecmwf) has for next Friday. For
now...the extended grids have chance probability of precipitation central and west with some
cooler highs next Friday through Saturday.


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...



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